Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Electoral College Map...we need a centrist candidate to win the rustbelt to stop Trump. [View all]BlueWI
(1,736 posts)in an era of dynamic change. His style was perfect for the era when clean government and bipartisanship were the gold standard for an effective political persona. But he was not as strong when the emphasis shifted to leaning in to your base, identity politics, and use of social media to maximize turnout and voter engagement. Sanders won big over Clinton because he had a better sense of the issues and climate in this Rust Belt state, and there's a map to a win in 2020 if we learn some lessons from his 2016 approach.
I honestly don't think you can trot out a simple formula to win. How many non-centrists have Democrats nominated since 1960? Arguably, the only ones are McGovern, maybe LBJ if only domestic policy is considered, maybe Obama if we compare him to Hillary Clinton, but not when he's compared to the liberal candidates in this year's primary. And there were different results each time when the centrists ran. Six wins among four nominees (Carter, Bill Clinton, LBJ and Obama if we count them as centrists; and this is with Bill Clinton benefiteing from the Ross Perot campaigns and winning without a popular vote majority in either 1992 or 1996). Centrists have seven losses (Carter, Humphrey, Dukakis, Mondale, Kerry, Gore, Hillary Clinton). So, centrists do not have a net winning record since 1960, and there weren't enough left-leaning liberals nominated for a fair comparison.
Regardless of this history, every presidential year we get this tack - don't nominate the far left, the far left cost us the election, etc. The liberal part of this party has faithfully voted for the Michael Dukakis, Bill and Hillary Clinton, John Kerry, Walter Mondale-centrist candidates for my whole adult life, in greater numbers than moderate or conservative Democrats have voted for the nominee. The left delivers the highest percentage of Democratic votes and gets steadily scolded for not favoring centrist candidates.
There is no easy formula. Inspiring candidates and inspired, focused campaigns with a clear agenda and good advertising and optics, win.
primary today, I would vote for: Undecided