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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: Medicare for All a Vote Loser in 2018 U.S. House Elections [View all]Gothmog
(145,274 posts)29. Read the actual study
One factor used in the analysis on partisan bias came from 2016 but the rest of the data is from the 2018. This is a well done study
http://crystalball.centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/medicare-for-all-a-vote-loser-in-2018-u-s-house-elections/
But 2020 is not the first election in which Medicare for All was an important campaign issue. It was also debated extensively during the 2018 midterm elections. By examining the impact of Medicare for All on the results of the 2018 U.S. House elections, we may gain some insights into how this issue could affect the 2020 presidential election.
Fortunately, we have very good information about the positions taken by Democratic House candidates on Medicare for All based on their responses to a survey conducted by a group advocating for this policy, National Nurses United. According to the results of this survey, 51% (219 of 429 districts included in the survey) of Democratic House candidates endorsed a version of Medicare for All supported by NNU one that is fairly close to that proposed by Sanders and Warren.....
In order to further explore the impact of Medicare for All on the results of these competitive House contests, we need to conduct a multivariate analysis controlling for other factors influencing the outcomes. Table 3 presents the results of a multiple regression analysis of the House results in these 60 districts. The dependent variable here is the Democratic margin in the House election. The independent variables are the Democratic presidential margin in the district in 2016, a dummy variable for districts with a Republican incumbent (vs. open seat contests), the natural logarithm of Democratic campaign spending, the natural logarithm of Republican campaign spending[2] and, finally, whether the Democratic candidate supported Medicare for All.
The results in Table 3 indicate that after controlling for all of the other variables affecting the outcomes of these contests, Democratic candidates who endorsed Medicare for All did significantly worse than those who did not. The estimated coefficient of -4.6 indicates that support for Medicare for All cost Democratic candidates in these competitive districts almost five points of vote margin a substantial effect in a close election.
Fortunately, we have very good information about the positions taken by Democratic House candidates on Medicare for All based on their responses to a survey conducted by a group advocating for this policy, National Nurses United. According to the results of this survey, 51% (219 of 429 districts included in the survey) of Democratic House candidates endorsed a version of Medicare for All supported by NNU one that is fairly close to that proposed by Sanders and Warren.....
In order to further explore the impact of Medicare for All on the results of these competitive House contests, we need to conduct a multivariate analysis controlling for other factors influencing the outcomes. Table 3 presents the results of a multiple regression analysis of the House results in these 60 districts. The dependent variable here is the Democratic margin in the House election. The independent variables are the Democratic presidential margin in the district in 2016, a dummy variable for districts with a Republican incumbent (vs. open seat contests), the natural logarithm of Democratic campaign spending, the natural logarithm of Republican campaign spending[2] and, finally, whether the Democratic candidate supported Medicare for All.
The results in Table 3 indicate that after controlling for all of the other variables affecting the outcomes of these contests, Democratic candidates who endorsed Medicare for All did significantly worse than those who did not. The estimated coefficient of -4.6 indicates that support for Medicare for All cost Democratic candidates in these competitive districts almost five points of vote margin a substantial effect in a close election.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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Moderates won back the house running on the ACA and /or local issues...so if we run on MFA,you
Demsrule86
Nov 2019
#3
Medicare for all in its current form will not be the final product. There will be compromise just
vsrazdem
Nov 2019
#38
And I do not want to lose downballot races due to a plan that was proven to hurt candidates
Gothmog
Nov 2019
#39
Whoever wins the primary will be the one running and that choice is for the American people to
vsrazdem
Nov 2019
#40
Whoever wins, wins. That's how it works, it is about the president of the US, not about
vsrazdem
Nov 2019
#45
I don't like Medicare...don't get me wrong...glad such a program exist...but there are multiple
Demsrule86
Nov 2019
#4
I would like to see universal healthcare modeled on the military program...we have a great program
Demsrule86
Nov 2019
#11
Don't let anyone take them away...no one in any party...union and military benefits are the best
Demsrule86
Nov 2019
#15
The GOP have been coming for your benefits for years...But I think MFA is a threat to union
Demsrule86
Nov 2019
#18
Medicare is the model though and it shouldn't be IMHO. I fail to see why it is a good idea to start
Demsrule86
Nov 2019
#13
If you want to expand on the ACA or Obamacare, then don't call it the ACA or Obamacare.
Hassin Bin Sober
Nov 2019
#22
LOL, says much more concisely what I was basically saying in post #23! (n/t)
thesquanderer
Nov 2019
#25
Warren's latest health plan is causing concerns for some centrist, moderate and rural Democrats
Gothmog
Nov 2019
#60
It is not a winning issue and there is no question...those running on the ACA are doing better...we
Demsrule86
Nov 2019
#14
Because that would make them a corporatist DINO sellout. Try to keep up.....
brooklynite
Nov 2019
#28
Try to keep up! There's a monster in the White House and half of America find ridding
Laura PourMeADrink
Nov 2019
#31
You do remember we lost the House, and ultimately the Senate primarily due to suspicions over ACA?
Tarheel_Dem
Nov 2019
#44
The midterm elections were, to an important extent, a referendum on the Affordable Care Act
Gothmog
Nov 2019
#56
+1. I can't imagine Congress Critters having to go back home and defend something that...
Tarheel_Dem
Nov 2019
#57