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Congratulations to our presumptive Democratic nominee, Joe Biden!
Democratic Primaries
In reply to the discussion: I'm beginning to think that Biden could be the best choice right now. [View all]Gothmog
(145,321 posts)63. Biden's Electability Advantage Will Be Hard to Shake Among Risk-Averse Democrats
Link to tweet
The most obvious is Bidens consistent strength in head-to-head polls against Trump. You can remind people all day long that these are unreliable indicators of how a general-election campaign will actually play out, but they wont be able to ignore them. And Bidens advantage here is significant. There is not a single poll in the RealClearPolitics database of 2020 trial heats between Biden and Trump in which Biden does not lead. His current lead in RCPs polling averages is an enormous 11.5 percent (Sanderss is 7.0 percent, and Warrens is 5.2 percent, but both have trailed Trump in some surveys).
A second factor making Biden Mr. Electable is the widespread belief among pundits and voters alike that, all things being equal, proximity to the political center is a general-election asset. The more we approach a three-candidate nominating contest in which Bidens only real challenge comes from Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren, the more Bidens relative moderation will become evident. That may hurt him with some primary voters, but it could at the same time enhance his perceived electability.
A third factor some analysts focus on is the practical ability to win voters the party lost in 2016 either to Trump or to third parties or to the living-room couch. Theres at best limited evidence that Biden is more popular than other Democrats in the much-chewed-over white working-class demographic (especially Obama-Trump voters). But he certainly talks about his focus on these voters a lot, which enhances the perception they are his people. And he certainly has conspicuous strength among African-American voters, whose fall-off in turnout was a big problem for Hillary Clinton in 2016. Biden does not look like a good bet to energize younger voters, but Trump might well do that for him...
Risk-averse is probably the most important term to remember in assessing Democratic voters heading toward 2020. They still dont entirely understand how Hillary Clinton managed to lose to Donald Trump in 2016, but they arent inclined to take anything for granted this time around. And that will make it difficult for candidates other than Biden to convince Democrats their other qualities are worth taking a bit of a risk on. Sure, Biden could in theory blow himself up with some high-profile gaffe that undermines the very premise of his candidacy. But thats not within anyone elses control.
If I were to vote in a presidential
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
primary today, I would vote for: Joe Biden
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I'm beginning to think that Biden could be the best choice right now. [View all]
Kablooie
Sep 2019
OP
No, let's go from this moment forward. India and Pakistan could break out nukes, which spells
emmaverybo
Sep 2019
#8
Even if Biden is elected, if the Senate is controlled by Republicans, little will be accomplished.
olegramps
Sep 2019
#67
The problem I am addressing is the global, existential threat the potential for nuclear war
emmaverybo
Sep 2019
#74
Absolutely, both national and international policies will not be resolved without control.
olegramps
Sep 2019
#80
I want a VP candidate who is younger and more progressive than any of the front runners
Arkansas Granny
Sep 2019
#14
I'll take the baby steps that come with normal -major changes can be a lot of upheaval
Thekaspervote
Sep 2019
#6
I really liked Beto when he announced but he has not run a good campaign.
redstateblues
Sep 2019
#11
There are several highly accomplished WOC senators. Biden does not have to pick from the
emmaverybo
Sep 2019
#15
I really like the Mayor and she and Biden seem comfortable around each other. As for experience, she
Skya Rhen
Sep 2019
#46
Abrams is similar to Obama in experience. Obama was in the US Senate but Abrams would be VP
JI7
Sep 2019
#58
Yeah I'd love to see Klobuchar as the nominee but it's very unlikely so
comradebillyboy
Sep 2019
#57
It's what most Americans are thinking right along with you -- that we have to get to "solid" first.
ancianita
Sep 2019
#19
And if Biden claims he'll install "the best people", it won't be bullshit. I don't think we'll have
Tarheel_Dem
Sep 2019
#21
could be, but I still need him to account for his credit card comp protection and
aikoaiko
Sep 2019
#30
That's not really true. His strong point is that he worked closely with a great President...
NNadir
Sep 2019
#62
Biden's Electability Advantage Will Be Hard to Shake Among Risk-Averse Democrats
Gothmog
Sep 2019
#63