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2016 Postmortem

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socialist_n_TN

(11,481 posts)
Fri Dec 23, 2016, 03:41 PM Dec 2016

In all the "Bernie would have won/No he wouldn't" posts I've read........... [View all]

very few have explored one of the main reasons that he COULD have won IMO. And that is bringing in independent and discouraged voters into the Democratic Party fold.

Democrats and Republicans both need to realize that they are no longer majorities in regards to anything political anymore. They're not majorities among the voting age population, as shown by the low percentage of potential voters who didn't even bother to vote and neither party is a majority among people who actually pay attention and state a political preference. At 43%, self proclaimed independents hold that role.

Now independent does cover a lot of territory on the left/right spectrum, including true independents (10% according to Gallup) to "Democratic leaning" independents (18% per Gallup) to 16% "Republican leaning" independents (again Gallup). But regardless of their place, left or right, they don't characterize themselves as D or R. Which means they feel their beliefs aren't covered by a majority of the Dems or the Repubs.

That's also the reason, IMO, that Bernie didn't win the Democratic primary. His views are to the left of most Democrats. But that doesn't mean his views are to the left of the nearly 50% that don't bother or the 18% of Dem leaning independents who don't think the Democrats fully represent their views. THESE are the voters that Bernie could have potentially brought into the Dem fold in 2016 that could have brought him a victory.

In talking about a postmortem, you MUST take these voters into account for the future or you wind up dismissing a large percentage of the voting age population. A percentage that the Dems need to win elections.

And yes Bloomberg could have effected the election by running as a third party candidate, but could he have brought in these disenfranchised and discouraged voters? As a clear representative of the billionaire establishment, I don't think so.

In short, I don't think that anybody can really know who would have won in 2016 between Bernie, Trump, and Bloomberg, but Bernie would have had a shot simply because he could have appealed to that 50% or so that didn't vote or voted third party.

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Thanks for a post that actually considers the possibilities. HassleCat Dec 2016 #1
Yeah, I've noticed that........ socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #12
BULL FUCKIN SHIT !!!! COMEY, Voter Suppression and RUSSIA !! This was NOT a Free and Fair election!! uponit7771 Dec 2016 #2
What he said. shraby Dec 2016 #3
So what are you going to do about that?........ socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #5
Advocate for free and fair elections? uponit7771 Dec 2016 #7
Hey, I'll join you in that............ socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #11
I swear, I'm about ready to join you. Ligyron Dec 2016 #32
Me too! KPN Dec 2016 #37
Funny how everyone hates socialism... Yurovsky Dec 2016 #207
What does that have to do with the OP? nt Gore1FL Dec 2016 #18
The suppositions are useless seeing the same thing would've happened to Sanders or JFK or FDR uponit7771 Dec 2016 #29
I only got to see the election that actually happened. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #33
Lol. Funny but true. KPN Dec 2016 #38
lol... that's like saying, "... yes, the ref tripped the kid with the ball but the kid was too slow uponit7771 Dec 2016 #45
It might have been stopped if the ticket was better. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #52
Exactly WilliamH1474 Dec 2016 #69
So Sanders didn't have ANYTHING the GOP could've exploited an blown up out of proportion? tia uponit7771 Dec 2016 #81
Not to the extent that Clinton did. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #90
This is false on its face .... The university thing was just last year uponit7771 Dec 2016 #103
I am not sure what Trump University had to do with Clinton fatigue. Please explain. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #111
There were a lot of things I liked in both WilliamH1474 Dec 2016 #93
There were two things that Comey could've used that Clinton didn't but I'll leave that to uponit7771 Dec 2016 #104
Yep. And the GOP just bringing it up would have depressed the Dem vote. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #122
So what as long as its a good dynasty? and the majority of America liked the same cause that uponit7771 Dec 2016 #80
Not really. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #89
Nope quakerboy Dec 2016 #102
Nice :) MadDAsHell Dec 2016 #94
Links to actual proof of these charges kcdoug1 Dec 2016 #151
Not making any charges and Clinton's camp isn't not silent on the issue uponit7771 Dec 2016 #153
mmmm Blaming every one and every rumor on your candidate losing kcdoug1 Dec 2016 #154
If you have to ask, you wouln't understand anyway. n/t Lil Missy Dec 2016 #190
I am sure I would understand if it actually made sense relative to the OP Gore1FL Dec 2016 #192
Sure, but more Dem voters would overwhelm the cheats/hacks. Beartracks Dec 2016 #20
Not relative to the facts, we could have 8 trillion people who voted the GOP would've uponit7771 Dec 2016 #30
Spot on! Where's the megaphone? KPN Dec 2016 #40
Not if Cross Check took them off registration !! Does anyone know what they were doing!?!? uponit7771 Dec 2016 #47
And they won by 80,000 votes in 3 States. KPN Dec 2016 #55
Not with the other 2 factors added in, I'm not buying into the guessing games when the facts uponit7771 Dec 2016 #56
Not buying in? Despite the fact that probably millions of more votes KPN Dec 2016 #60
All 3 factors are fact, I'm not buying into the guessing and RWTP like the DNC didn't stand up uponit7771 Dec 2016 #62
Lol. RWTP my ass! KPN Dec 2016 #138
Preach it! dionysus Dec 2016 #158
True shenmue Dec 2016 #46
It's hardly ever a free and fair election. Anybody remember when Netanyahu campaigned for Romney? NWCorona Dec 2016 #76
Comey? sfwriter Dec 2016 #86
They made up something about Clinton Comey would've made up something about Sanders uponit7771 Dec 2016 #87
Reasonable, mature reaction to someone having a different opinion from you. MadDAsHell Dec 2016 #92
Yeap...Not going to put up with FUD memes... I'm proud I'm aware of these ... uponit7771 Dec 2016 #105
True, but I knew a lot Rw'ers who actually and surprisingly liked Bernie. They actually said they The Wielding Truth Dec 2016 #101
Not after Comey and Russia for some with him... Victim blaming sucks uponit7771 Dec 2016 #106
Definitely. The Comey thing was her death knell. I always say this nation has a two week memory and The Wielding Truth Dec 2016 #142
Yep. These "if wishes were horses" threads are ridiculous. I've trashed the word Squinch Dec 2016 #109
Is this post for real or satirization of Hillary can do no wrong crowd? aikoaiko Dec 2016 #187
Nah it's the this was not a free and fair election based on reality crowd uponit7771 Dec 2016 #188
Misinformation, lies, voter suppression, and October revelations are all part of GE game. aikoaiko Dec 2016 #191
Can you link and quote where a Comey level announcement, Russia hacking DNC and 41,000 uponit7771 Dec 2016 #193
Well, the Comey letter was substantially less severe than his previous statements aikoaiko Dec 2016 #194
Nate estimated a net 4 point shift after Comey memo uponit7771 Dec 2016 #196
That's not what he said Nov 6th. Is there a later 538 article? aikoaiko Dec 2016 #197
Yes, link inside dated Dec 11th uponit7771 Dec 2016 #198
He does blame the Comey in tweets after the fact. aikoaiko Dec 2016 #199
I don't blame Silver for not knowing Comey's level of treason or not predicting the level uponit7771 Dec 2016 #200
This assumes that all Clinton voters would have been on board for Sanders. lapucelle Dec 2016 #4
Nope, I would have expected a large percentage of Clinton voters......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #9
IMHO there's no way Bloomberg would have got in. Regardless of what he said NWCorona Dec 2016 #78
Sanders would have had to bring in all the Clinton voters +10 of the non-voters. lapucelle Dec 2016 #120
I never said he would have gotten all of the Clinton voters.......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #123
What you say is true, of course, along with several other reasons he could have won. Ron Green Dec 2016 #6
Sad but true realmirage Dec 2016 #8
DU reflected everything that was wrong with the Democrats in 2016 Gore1FL Dec 2016 #19
What Gore1FL said Plucketeer Dec 2016 #28
It sure seems that way. But I'm not going away. Neither KPN Dec 2016 #41
Sanders approach is the only winning way forward realmirage Dec 2016 #10
We have to back away from corporate welfare so we can call trump's administration out on it, too. JudyM Dec 2016 #13
Exactly. We've become too much like Republicans realmirage Dec 2016 #14
Non-Dems have always crazily said both parties are alike in their self-serving greed. We are losing JudyM Dec 2016 #113
Do you think there's a chance that might happen here at DU? KPN Dec 2016 #42
Exactly and that's why I liked Bernie. He didn't use his position to get connected to the trough NWCorona Dec 2016 #82
Yep, one of the few. Stunning that many don't see that in him. JudyM Dec 2016 #114
Exactly. We used to stand for our values. Now we apologize for them. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #23
You're subscribing to the myth of the "independent" voter. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #15
So it's always that ... we got our heads up our derriers because KPN Dec 2016 #44
As long as people subscribe to nonsense, there will be people to point it out. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #98
Nonsense? Fantasy? Reality based thinking? KPN Dec 2016 #139
No, there are more "independent" Republicans than "independent" Democrats. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #143
The figures I cited were from Gallup from a poll in 2015 (?)......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #161
The more important point is that you're misrepresenting who "independents" are. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #182
I misrepresented nothing. I made a distinct demarcation between "independents".......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #184
You did. This is how you described "independents": Garrett78 Dec 2016 #185
I think you're mistaking polarization for.... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #203
Logical or not, that's the reality. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #205
You make an excellent point. We need to focus on our base. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #144
And drop this false narrative about who "independents" are. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #147
Exactly. The GOP, despite their dwindling numbers, know to focus on their base to win. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #149
Interesting double standard among some DUers - those who assert Sanders would've lost because JudyM Dec 2016 #16
All that has been said a dozen times. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #17
+1000. n/t pnwmom Dec 2016 #22
Yes. radical noodle Dec 2016 #31
Very thoughtful, spot on. brush Dec 2016 #35
THIS. Maven Dec 2016 #53
You all are underestimating the role of populism or, said another way, KPN Dec 2016 #54
This socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #67
nm indeed. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #132
I pulled away after he was out Axolotls Dec 2016 #85
Ah. The drama. The drama. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #134
And ironically, so are those who supported and ordained Hillary before the primary season KPN Dec 2016 #140
Yep. We lost for a lot of reasons. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #145
Trump exemplifies, "hard work. Not a wave of the celebrity wand?" immoderate Dec 2016 #202
You are underestimating reality. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #131
You are living in your own false reality. KPN Dec 2016 #141
Hardly anything was said about Bernie's rape article, comments about Castro, etc. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #146
Your opinion only. KPN Dec 2016 #170
You do not have facts on your side. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #148
As I've written before, anyone who thinks Trump is a populist is batshit crazy. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #150
But a lot of people Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #156
Can't argue with that. But populism is what elected him. KPN Dec 2016 #168
As long as that uninformed belief is yours Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #179
Spare me the psychological drivel. KPN Dec 2016 #169
Whoa. Sorry I touched a nerve. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #178
I had several problems with Bernie myself...... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #65
Let me hear your problems with Bernie Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #136
My problems with Bernie? Firstly, HE WASN'T A SOCIALIST!!!!!!!... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #162
We will disagree it seems. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #167
One way or another, EVERY thing that you mentioned in your...... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #181
If you want to redefine Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #186
Liberals ARE the establishment......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #201
This guy has a hammer, see? Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #206
Given the numerous real skeletons in his closet, duffyduff Dec 2016 #77
What skeletons are those? NWCorona Dec 2016 #84
My two cents NWCorona Dec 2016 #83
Here's your change. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #137
Hillary had her surrogates trash Bernie NWCorona Dec 2016 #155
Tell yourself whatever you need Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #157
What's that saying about when you assume? NWCorona Dec 2016 #160
It's hard to follow your inconsistency. Jakes Progress Dec 2016 #166
I jump from one side to the other because I respect both Hillary and Bernie NWCorona Dec 2016 #172
She didn't actually. He had no such qualms, he attacked her character, while echoing and synergie Dec 2016 #165
Brock said that it appears that black lives don't matter to Bernie NWCorona Dec 2016 #171
The facts do not support you on any point. synergie Dec 2016 #174
So are you saying that black lives don't matter to Bernie? NWCorona Dec 2016 #175
So when the claims fall apart based on facts, deliberate dishonesty is the go to? synergie Dec 2016 #176
Hardly. You seem to be justifying Brocks statement and I'd like NWCorona Dec 2016 #177
Why do you think Russia, Comey, et all would have let ANY Democrat pnwmom Dec 2016 #21
The dynamic would have been different. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #25
No, because Russia wanted their puppet DT. Bernie would NOT have fit the bill. pnwmom Dec 2016 #36
2106 wasn't all about Russia. Socialism isn't scary to those who can define it. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #50
Everything you are arguing is based on speculation about an untested candidate pnwmom Dec 2016 #58
Like Michigan? nt Gore1FL Dec 2016 #71
You do realize, right, that pointing to the exception only proves the rule? Garrett78 Dec 2016 #99
Yes, he did well in Michigan. What other diverse primaries? n/t pnwmom Dec 2016 #73
Of course they wouldn't. Trump was in the bag for Russia before he even KPN Dec 2016 #48
Don't you think that Bernie "would" have won if he "could" have won? world wide wally Dec 2016 #24
He didn't run. He supported the Democratic nominee. nt Gore1FL Dec 2016 #26
He waited till the convention to support her. Up till then, he was pnwmom Dec 2016 #39
Apparently Hillary didn't have Hillary's ability to build a diverse coalition, either. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #51
She did. She won 3 million more votes than DT, pnwmom Dec 2016 #57
Unfortunately, popular vote is not how presidential elections work in the U.S. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #70
And the primary loser doesn't get to be proclaimed the real winner. pnwmom Dec 2016 #75
No one made that claim. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #88
She was the stronger ticket. The fact that he could have possibly carried pnwmom Dec 2016 #91
If Clinton/Kaine was the strongest ticket the Democrats could have put together for 2016 then Gore1FL Dec 2016 #97
They would have won if James Comey hadn't broken all precedent and official policy pnwmom Dec 2016 #100
Maybe, maybe not. That, too, is speculation. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #110
Post removed Post removed Dec 2016 #27
Bernie was never tested in the general election. It's easy for his supporters pnwmom Dec 2016 #43
Women weren't even particularly enthusiastic backers of Clinton. MadDAsHell Dec 2016 #95
No. And she got almost 3 million more votes than DT -- but not enough pnwmom Dec 2016 #96
You're wrong. "Clinton only got the support of 54% of women -- compared to Obama's 55%." MadDAsHell Dec 2016 #119
You're wrong if you think exit polls are precise within one percentage point. pnwmom Dec 2016 #121
Exactly! KPN Dec 2016 #34
Bernie ran an insurgent campaign bucolic_frolic Dec 2016 #49
Yup. Kick and Rec eom Arazi Dec 2016 #59
I see it differently. I welcome a progressive wing. LisaM Dec 2016 #61
A few things here after reading all of the posts socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #63
The fact that Zephyr Teachout lost -- in New York -- kinda kills your theory. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #125
If they want to have something to do with treestar Dec 2016 #64
I'm sure the Whigs felt that way about their position on slavery...... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #66
He sucked at pulling in liquid diamond Dec 2016 #68
Bloomberg would have evenly split from both parties. Exilednight Dec 2016 #72
Bernie would not have won outside of Vermont. duffyduff Dec 2016 #74
If he was able to bring ... NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #79
"If he was able to bring... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #115
Poor Bernie ... NanceGreggs Dec 2016 #152
Bernie might have beat Trump, mostly from more excitement among white millennials. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #107
That "excitement among millenials" never treanslated into votes, otherwise Hillary woulsn't have lunamagica Dec 2016 #108
It's probably good they didn't vote more... since Clinton lost them to Trump. n/t Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #112
In most Democratic primaries, you had to be registered as......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #117
Yeah, I noticed that Bernie did worse in PA and FL compared to MI and WI. Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #124
We will never know ismnotwasm Dec 2016 #116
Independent and discouraged voters who weren't ALLOWED to vote.......... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #118
Clinton won more open primary states than Sanders. lapucelle Dec 2016 #126
Wisconsin? Michigan? Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #133
What states? It was Hillary's base, people of color and women, who couldn't vote. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #128
Sanders got less than 43% of the vote in the primaries Gothmog Dec 2016 #129
Bernie Sanders was on the ballot and unperformed Clinton Gothmog Dec 2016 #127
Exactly. The pharma reform initiative Bernie pushed in CA lost, while Hillary won by 30 points. SunSeeker Dec 2016 #130
You and others have got to let go of this false narrative regarding "independents." Garrett78 Dec 2016 #135
Oh look what I found in this thread, about Democrats. betsuni Dec 2016 #159
A lot of these things that have been said, we'll know about soon....... socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #163
LOL! betsuni Dec 2016 #164
Reaganism is a dogma that is never disavowed by Democratic candidates. immoderate Dec 2016 #204
Exactly!!!!!!!!!!! socialist_n_TN Dec 2016 #208
Why would those that live an easy life rock the boat? Rex Dec 2016 #173
But he lost. Democrats wanted a Democrat. Lil Missy Dec 2016 #180
If not for caucuses, we wouldn't even be having this discussion. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #183
And as time went on after March, Sanders was nothing but a hinderence, a deliberate spoiler. Lil Missy Dec 2016 #189
Sure, but we as a party weren't going to take that chance. Orsino Dec 2016 #195
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