2016 Postmortem

HassleCat

(6,409 posts)

81. I guess your graph explains a couple things

Fri Dec 16, 2016, 07:56 PM

Dec 2016

1. Why Sanders did well in rust belt primaries, where he was obviously too liberal.

2. Why Sanders polled better than Clinton against Trump in those states.

By the way, when you create a graph such as this, the honest way to do it is to include the entire range of values, which would be from zero to one hundred in this case. Excluding a range of high or low values makes it appear that the difference between Obama and Sanders is really dramatic, when it amounts to about 16 percentage points. I notice FDR didn't make the cut, which brings up the question of why a particular time period is chosen.

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Bernie Sanders Would Have Lost the Election in a Landslide [View all] brooklynite Dec 2016 OP

Why relitigate the primaries AGAIN?? The Velveteen Ocelot Dec 2016 #1

This is the post-mortem folder; others keep raising the "what if" question. brooklynite Dec 2016 #4

Our real focus needs to be on coming together! RiverStone Dec 2016 #45

+1! tecelote Dec 2016 #56

Since pro-Sanders posts ("he woulda won") are rife here these days stopbush Dec 2016 #55

I see the claim that Bernie would have won over and over every day. pnwmom Dec 2016 #59

I hadn't noticed them but I would have asked the same question. The Velveteen Ocelot Dec 2016 #68

Because some Bernie Bros insist on it. n/t Lil Missy Dec 2016 #126

I think it's because Hillary supporters are are trying to control the narrative TransitJohn Dec 2016 #174

We will never know for sure, will we? TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #2

Trump would have killed Sanders in the general election Gothmog Dec 2016 #3

You posted this earlier today. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #5

People need to see this so they're not deluded. He would have gotten creamed. Dream Girl Dec 2016 #113

There's no way to know that. TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #119

Sanders was a very weak general election candidate who would have been destroyed in the general Gothmog Dec 2016 #154

Sanders had a free ride in the primaries and would had been destroyed in the general election Gothmog Dec 2016 #155

That is pure speculation, TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #158

You are wrong-Sanders under performed Clinton Gothmog Dec 2016 #163

And Clinton lost to Trump, TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #167

Sanders was a very weak general election candidate who would have been destroyed in the general Gothmog Dec 2016 #168

and Hillary wasn't defeated? TheCowsCameHome Dec 2016 #171

cheated is different than defeated. LaydeeBug Dec 2016 #178

Trump also killed Hillary in the general election The Velveteen Ocelot Dec 2016 #8

She won the popular vote by 3 million votes Gothmog Dec 2016 #30

There's no way to know what would have happened The Velveteen Ocelot Dec 2016 #31

Only with the help of the Kremlin, the FBI and 25 years of smears.(nt) ehrnst Dec 2016 #54

+1000 complain jane Dec 2016 #101

And after all of that, complain jane Dec 2016 #102

Trump had oppo on him that should have taken anyone down. Ace Rothstein Dec 2016 #11

Trump's supporters would support him through anything - it's not what he does, but WHO he is. (nt) ehrnst Dec 2016 #135

EXACTLY, and the media propped him up. The D's could have offered Jesus H. Christ and LaydeeBug Dec 2016 #177

I tend to agree NewJeffCT Dec 2016 #16

Trump got elected after bragging out loud about grabbing p***y and you think "opposition research" yodermon Dec 2016 #21

I keep hearing about this Op Research folder, but no one has been able to produce it. Exilednight Dec 2016 #38

The Senate is not a national election. He fits in well in Vermont brush Dec 2016 #69

There's only 100 Senate seats. Both parties are fighting to the bitter end to get to the magic Exilednight Dec 2016 #79

You're assuming that Republicans had the research in 2012. lapucelle Dec 2016 #94

Some of that oppo goes back to the '80s. (nt) ehrnst Dec 2016 #137

Not the "environmental racism" charge that Republicans were planning to launch. lapucelle Dec 2016 #138

The environmental racism charge goes back to 1998. So, yes, they would have had it. (nt) ehrnst Dec 2016 #142

You point was about stuff going back to the 1980's, not 1998. lapucelle Dec 2016 #150

Some of it.. eilen Dec 2016 #76

And where did you get this info from? Exilednight Dec 2016 #80

It came from here: Garrett78 Dec 2016 #124

You have an editorial piece written in Newsweek? That's it? Exilednight Dec 2016 #125

You asked where that quote had come from. I answered on eilen's behalf. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #131

So there is no proof the book exists. Thanks, that's all I was wondering. Exilednight Dec 2016 #133

Subtle move of the goalposts on your part. Nice job. LanternWaste Dec 2016 #165

I moved nothing. if the book exists then let's see it. Exilednight Dec 2016 #166

Sanders wasn't the nominee, so expecting all the oppo research to be revealed is silly. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #190

they would have used it take his Senate seat if it existed. Exilednight Dec 2016 #196

He wasn't up for re-election, and Vermont is not equivalent to the US. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #197

every seat un the senate us valuable. Exilednight Dec 2016 #198

And perhaps that oppo research will be a problem for him when he's up for re-election. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #199

Not just an op-ed, but by a very good investigative reporter. He saw it. And so much of it is public ehrnst Dec 2016 #140

You know all this stuff was pushed by Clinton surrogates on media, cable tv, etc. and here on Du. Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2016 #169

I was responding to people here who doubted its existence. I posted links. ehrnst Dec 2016 #175

More on that Oppo folder: ehrnst Dec 2016 #136

That's not a news article, it's an editorial piece. Exilednight Dec 2016 #146

You think that White, lefty, rural VT cares if he supported the Sandinistas? It exists: ehrnst Dec 2016 #147

Seriously? This is all you have? Exilednight Dec 2016 #148

I understand that the GOP had more. And seriously.... ehrnst Dec 2016 #149

it depends on the candidate. Exilednight Dec 2016 #152

Ask Nader how that turned out for him. (nt) ehrnst Dec 2016 #153

All of that material would have made very effective negative ads Gothmog Dec 2016 #208

The important thing to understand is that the GOP would NOT have run against Sanders or O'Malley StevieM Dec 2016 #6

Sanders did lose the election. David__77 Dec 2016 #7

I have major grievances with Bernie's rhetoric in the primaries Charles Bukowski Dec 2016 #9

with your logic he should never entered the race. b/c he had no chance of winning juxtaposed Dec 2016 #13

???? Charles Bukowski Dec 2016 #15

Sanders was practically eliminated after the first Super Tuesday NewJeffCT Dec 2016 #18

b/c hrc was so strong in the polls? juxtaposed Dec 2016 #24

No, because she was so far ahead in delegates after Super Tuesday NewJeffCT Dec 2016 #35

Sander was mathematically eliminated on Super Tuesday Gothmog Dec 2016 #32

He wasn't technically eliminated mathematically. But the writing was on the wall. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #132

Clinton had a greater lead that President Obama had over Clinton at this point Gothmog Dec 2016 #156

I understand and agree. But "mathematically eliminated" means something specific. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #187

As a practical matter, the lead was far too great to overcome Gothmog Dec 2016 #189

it is your logic-- embrase it juxtaposed Dec 2016 #25

Spin it however you want, Sanders Charles Bukowski Dec 2016 #33

hrc lost.. could sanders have won, i don't know? but do not push bull shit if you have ones head juxtaposed Dec 2016 #37

Yeah yeah Bernie can do no wrong Charles Bukowski Dec 2016 #40

HRC hung around the 2008 primaries long after the math proved she could not win Larkspur Dec 2016 #29

The 2008 primaries Charles Bukowski Dec 2016 #39

She was terrible Larkspur Dec 2016 #110

Still going with the "Bernie Wuz Robbed!" meme, huh? Charles Bukowski Dec 2016 #122

It helps to build the legend ehrnst Dec 2016 #176

I was pissed! Pisces Dec 2016 #130

See post #6. The repugs would play every dirty trick in the book . . . brush Dec 2016 #74

Yeah and I bet you said that Obama could not win in 2008 Larkspur Dec 2016 #111

No. He didn't have the baggage Bernie had. And he won the nomination. brush Dec 2016 #112

People of color? Not so much. Dream Girl Dec 2016 #114

everyone knows sanders would have crushed trump, with all of hrc supporters as a juxtaposed Dec 2016 #10

"There's not a snowball's chance that he could have won the presidency" hmmmm... progressoid Dec 2016 #12

The same way Hillary lost with all of Sanders supporters. After HRC conceded Thinkingabout Dec 2016 #53

Sure. Except that the parts that DIDN'T happen. progressoid Dec 2016 #96

Did Sanders nominate Hillary on the floor at the convention? Thinkingabout Dec 2016 #120

Sanders was busy negotiating for a private jet from the DNC to release his delegates. ehrnst Dec 2016 #144

LBJ was much more liberal than most of the rest Buzz cook Dec 2016 #14

Everybody with common sense knows this bravenak Dec 2016 #17

Common sense is just that... common ThirdEye Dec 2016 #27

Hillary did actually beat Trump in vote totals. bravenak Dec 2016 #34

The most salient statement in your post NWCorona Dec 2016 #19

And what fomented the loss of Indys, X-Over Reps and Millennials? HRC selecting Kaine over Sanders TheBlackAdder Dec 2016 #20

A good analysis, IMHO Ghost OF Trotsky Dec 2016 #47

Excellent Analyst! LovingA2andMI Dec 2016 #88

Outstanding analysis and points. Tatiana Dec 2016 #97

Horsepoo. Kerry would be far more on the liberal scale - next to McGovern. blm Dec 2016 #22

Misrepresentation of Kerry's voting record and career on DU bugs the shit out of me. emulatorloo Dec 2016 #28

Thank you karynnj Dec 2016 #72

Truly, there was no chance of Trump winning in any previous cycle, you have to admit. JCanete Dec 2016 #23

I would've paid good money to see a Sanders/Trump debate. MgtPA Dec 2016 #62

Trump would have called him names, blurted out moronic bumper sticker slogans complain jane Dec 2016 #103

Mother Jones Oct 25th 2016 : Bernie Sanders Is the Most Popular Politician in America think Dec 2016 #26

The GOP hadn't wasted one minute attacking Bernie. Why should they? pnwmom Dec 2016 #63

Exactly. :) JudyM Dec 2016 #117

Bernie Sanders Was On The 2016 Ballot And He Underperformed Hillary Clinton Gothmog Dec 2016 #36

Thanks for posting these facts, BlueMTexpat Dec 2016 #121

Sanders is not currently a member of the Democratic Party Gothmog Dec 2016 #157

Nothing epitomizes my BlueMTexpat Dec 2016 #161

I agree Gothmog Dec 2016 #191

No, I am one of the very BlueMTexpat Dec 2016 #192

Texas will turn blue eventually Gothmog Dec 2016 #193

That is great to hear! BlueMTexpat Dec 2016 #194

Maybe, maybe not. Nearly every Tяцмр voter I know wanted Bernie first. MadamPresident Dec 2016 #41

But the vast majority of DT voters were the same Rethugs who always vote GOP. pnwmom Dec 2016 #60

Your analysis has no bearing on this election lastone Dec 2016 #42

That's right!!! Bernie would have lost by 300,000,000 votes, or something. tom_kelly Dec 2016 #43

I've been saying this all along bucolic_frolic Dec 2016 #44

You also gave Hillary a 99.999999% of winning the general. closeupready Dec 2016 #46

I tend to agree, but this was a weird year, so who knows Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #48

Is this where you tell us the only chance is to move Bettie Dec 2016 #49

yeah, nobody really liked Sanders anyway.... mike_c Dec 2016 #50

Exactly. DeeDeeNY Dec 2016 #89

From the people who brought you "Hillary will win in a landslide." nt Gore1FL Dec 2016 #51

Exactly shawn703 Dec 2016 #61

She did. complain jane Dec 2016 #104

A 2% pop vote victory with 48% overall along with a lost electoral college isn't a landslide. Gore1FL Dec 2016 #109

Bernie Sanders Lost the Election in a Landslide. stonecutter357 Dec 2016 #52

Kevin Drum melman Dec 2016 #57

Nice try shawn703 Dec 2016 #58

Contra-factual. n/t malthaussen Dec 2016 #64

Everyone has an opinion. CentralMass Dec 2016 #65

Postmortem is not to re-hash primary angrychair Dec 2016 #66

Lol, hilarious and wrong Arazi Dec 2016 #67

Ya think? nt Autumn Dec 2016 #70

Can't let it go can ya? retrowire Dec 2016 #71

not sure AlexSFCA Dec 2016 #73

I'd rather have lost fighting for what I really believe in Dems to Win Dec 2016 #75

I'd give this more credence if it didn't come from the same guy telling us... hellofromreddit Dec 2016 #77

Good Catch!! LovingA2andMI Dec 2016 #90

I think we might have won if Bernie was Hillary's VP pick. It could have brought us together for the TeamPooka Dec 2016 #78

I guess your graph explains a couple things HassleCat Dec 2016 #81

They said a lot of things about Trump. mwooldri Dec 2016 #82

More predictions in a unpredictable season... lame54 Dec 2016 #83

Bullshit!!! LovingA2andMI Dec 2016 #84

and HRC supporters have to post such to assure Dems and progressives NEVER win, elleng Dec 2016 #85

The same conventional wisdom that told us Jeb! would for sure win the GOP nod. Warren DeMontague Dec 2016 #86

brooklynite, your accuracy with alternative outcomes paleotn Dec 2016 #87

It's a fools errand to speculate. what if all thousands of millenials napi21 Dec 2016 #91

first off DonCoquixote Dec 2016 #92

You cannot connect the dots and say that. Total BS. Bernie had the six man "momentum zonkers Dec 2016 #93

It was an outsider year and Bernie is perceived as an outsider. Vinca Dec 2016 #95

OK...Whatever helps you sleep...I work with 7 Trump voters in NC and masmdu Dec 2016 #98

Bullshit jfern Dec 2016 #99

This was the only election where Trump could have won quaker bill Dec 2016 #100

I think complain jane Dec 2016 #105

Bernie more liberal than Kennedy? Who sent the Civil Rights Act to Congress in 1963? ucrdem Dec 2016 #106

He wouldn't have lost Michigan, and I doubt he would have lost WI Yo_Mama Dec 2016 #107

The nation that could have nominated Sanders would be different. Orsino Dec 2016 #108

lol (nt) YoungDemCA Dec 2016 #115

But seriously: this notion that an "aging Jewish Socialist" could never have won... YoungDemCA Dec 2016 #116

Exactly, he would have lost big league. He was divisive and in the end, R B Garr Dec 2016 #118

So all the Democratic Party winners were significantly more liberal than Congress! andym Dec 2016 #123

Maybe. Maybe not... SidDithers Dec 2016 #127

The dirt Trump... Mike Nelson Dec 2016 #128

Hmmm Axolotls Dec 2016 #129

The only reason Trump won is he ran against another candidate with disapproval numbers... Hassin Bin Sober Dec 2016 #134

Some people love this kind of stuff. aikoaiko Dec 2016 #139

All the polls showed Bernie performing better than Hillary. Joe941 Dec 2016 #141

Notice how nobody wanted to admit the truth of your post? realmirage Dec 2016 #180

We never get to know. Orsino Dec 2016 #143

No, he wouldn't. budkin Dec 2016 #145

How many people gave Donald Trump a "snowball's chance" he would be winning the Presidency... PoliticAverse Dec 2016 #151

Just like the primary. Cha Dec 2016 #159

You forget an important point: Bernie Would Have Won DemocraticWing Dec 2016 #160

Denial is not just a river in Africa Gothmog Dec 2016 #162

Evidence? YoungDemCA Dec 2016 #170

Clinton out performed Sanders in the general Gothmog Dec 2016 #186

Perhaps they should rename the river "Bernie Would Have Won" DemocraticWing Dec 2016 #183

Good idea Gothmog Dec 2016 #185

Post hoc ergo prompter hoc. LanternWaste Dec 2016 #164

It's an inherently dumb question forjusticethunders Dec 2016 #172

I see what you mean and have been trying to show that. LiberalFighter Dec 2016 #173

In two different alternate realities ymetca Dec 2016 #179

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2016 #181

I've several issues with this... Lithos Dec 2016 #182

We lost because the other side doesn't trash their base. Spitfire of ATJ Dec 2016 #184

What metric are you using, may I ask? GoldenThunder Dec 2016 #188

Yes he would have lost in a big way. Not to mention they had not even begun to vet Sanders. Lil Missy Dec 2016 #195

HuffPo had a piece about his popularity only being a result of him never being attacked. R B Garr Dec 2016 #200

Sanders was treated with kid gloves in the primary by the Clinton team Gothmog Dec 2016 #203

Thank you for this excellent reminder. It's a real insight into just how easy Sanders had it. R B Garr Dec 2016 #206

The fact that Sanders never disclosed his taxes is amazing Gothmog Dec 2016 #207

Sanders did very poorly in the popular vote in the primaries Gothmog Dec 2016 #201

Would a Clinton/Sanders ticket have won? citood Dec 2016 #202

I doubt it. Garrett78 Dec 2016 #209

This assumes Congress is in touch with the people, they are not ck4829 Dec 2016 #204

Message auto-removed Name removed Dec 2016 #205