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2016 Postmortem

forjusticethunders

(1,151 posts)

6. Remember, the Shillver special sauce is nothing more than GIGO.

Reply to pnwmom (Original post)

Fri Nov 4, 2016, 04:24 PM

Nov 2016

Just tweak the way you weigh the garbage and the nongarbage* and you can get whatever horse(shit)race you want.

*all public polls are "garbage" to an extent, even the best ones, due to undercounting POCs, not being able to account for GOP/evangelical women too scared to poll Hillary at the dinner table but not to vote her in secret, and the lack of targeted voter data compared to internal polling

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Highlight:

Nate Silver in September gave GOP donors a closed-door presentation. [View all] pnwmom Nov 2016 OP

not good. not good dogindia Nov 2016 #2

Answer: no brooklynite Nov 2016 #3

Sam Wang says it's too volatile and that it "double-counts" by the way pnwmom Nov 2016 #4

noisy, volatile model means more clicks nt geek tragedy Nov 2016 #5

exactly, 538 is a media company, radius777 Nov 2016 #16

it also fails to account for early votes. geek tragedy Nov 2016 #17

It could be that he needs to tweek his model. Outlier polls seem to get way too much influence. bushisanidiot Nov 2016 #21

Remember, the Shillver special sauce is nothing more than GIGO. forjusticethunders Nov 2016 #6

He only makes big money if he is right hack89 Nov 2016 #7

He got lucky once and most of his mojo is guesswork. sunonmars Nov 2016 #9

He has eight years of being right hack89 Nov 2016 #13

Nate Silver absolutely does not support Trump; called his campaign profoundly evil. femmedem Nov 2016 #11

Who cares, they paid him for the presentation budkin Nov 2016 #20

Really makes sense. NCTraveler Nov 2016 #23

Does Nate make his models public information? Nt NCTraveler Nov 2016 #22

Dec 1969 #