2016 Postmortem

pat_k

(9,313 posts)

27. Split in ballots processed since last report is closer.

Tue Jun 14, 2016, 02:23 PM

Jun 2016

Don't get in a twist. I'm just noting trends.

One indicator of a trend is that the split was lower in votes counted in San Bernardino between 6/8 and yesterday (i.e., 53.1 / 46.9) than the votes counted there before 6/8. Before the additional votes were processed Hillary was at 57.9 there. Same phenomenon in SF.

The difference is greater when you look at all votes processed after last report. The split in the "after" ballots is 50.6 / 49.4. Obviously he's not catching up by much in the overall, but then again there are over 2 million to go.

The "she won CA by double-digits" meme may not hold when they are finished.

And sure, "Fun with CA ballots" can be fun for anyone interested in how the numbers go. Personally, I don't stop watching returns after the AP call in any election. I like to see what the final numbers are. It's no different here. The final numbers are just coming in more slowly.

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Fun with California ballot numbers [View all] pat_k Jun 2016 OP

This message was self-deleted by its author rjsquirrel Jun 2016 #1

final update bernie 3,567.583 - hillary zero nt msongs Jun 2016 #2

Fun with California ballot numbers. LenaBaby61 Jun 2016 #3

+ - = DemocratSinceBirth Jun 2016 #4

Thanks for the interesting work. Juicy_Bellows Jun 2016 #5

Say that you are right and he wins California (which won't happen, of course.) Then what? Squinch Jun 2016 #6

As I said in reply #9 pat_k Jun 2016 #10

since Hillary had enough delegates Demsrule86 Jun 2016 #7

See reply #10 pat_k Jun 2016 #11

Not all unprocesseded ballots are presidential primary ballots onenote Jun 2016 #8

I plan to redo in a couple days... pat_k Jun 2016 #9

When I re-read my post this morning I realized I had made a mistake in my calculations onenote Jun 2016 #22

Checked a couple counties pat_k Jun 2016 #24

In San Bernardino county Clinton is currently beating Sanders 56.1% - 42.6% ucrdem Jun 2016 #25

Split in ballots processed since last report is closer. pat_k Jun 2016 #27

Bravo! This post is excellent, you really should get generally better comments then the first few. pantsonfire Jun 2016 #12

Thanks for the encouraging post and numbers. pat_k Jun 2016 #14

Totally! Have you considered posting this on reddit? n/t pantsonfire Jun 2016 #17

Haven't considered. pat_k Jun 2016 #20

#berniemath! MaggieD Jun 2016 #13

Beltway sphincter! pat_k Jun 2016 #15

Yeah, I think Matt Taibbi is wrong MaggieD Jun 2016 #16

Good OP bhikkhu Jun 2016 #18

Thanks, pat. They don't want us to look too closely at the numbers. senz Jun 2016 #19

The problem is the necessary assumptions all break for Bernie. ucrdem Jun 2016 #21

I'm not "hanging my hat" on anything. pat_k Jun 2016 #23

A key point I think... LiberalFighter Jun 2016 #26

Details would be nice... pat_k Jun 2016 #28

Absolutley! LiberalFighter Jun 2016 #29

Some with small counts a/o 6/7 or 6/8 might pat_k Jun 2016 #30

ok That info about the process is helpful. LiberalFighter Jun 2016 #31