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2016 Postmortem

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Tarc

(10,476 posts)
Fri Apr 22, 2016, 12:31 PM Apr 2016

Request: show the math supporting Sanders' path to 2,384 or 2,026 delegates [View all]

2,384 is what is needed to secure the nomination overall, while 2,026 is the majority of pledged delegates.

We've seen some pretty wild claims in the past few days regarding Sanders getting landslides...or even 85% shutouts...in some upcoming states. I'd think we'd all be interested in seeing the math behind the claims that he can still win a majority of the pledged delegates, so let's see it.

http://demrace.com

Nice site with sliders and easy-to-adjust numbers and such. It will even let you save your results to post here.

Mine: http://DemRace.com/?share=i2gFDjEe

Strong showings in the Mid-Atlantic and the remaining New England States, large Latino and African-American populations in Puerto Rico and Washington Dc respectively. Also in California where Sanders will make a good showing but simply doesn't have the ground game for sufficient outreach millions of voters. Clinton goes into the convention with 2,185, a +319 advantage.


18 votes, 1 pass | Time left: Time expired
Sanders can win 2,384 pledged delegates, and not need the superdelegates
0 (0%)
Sanders can win 2,026 pledged delegates, needs the superdelegates to hit 2,384
3 (17%)
Clinton can win 2,384 pledged delegates, and not need the superdelegates
0 (0%)
Clinton can win 2,026 pledged delegates, needs the superdelegates to hit 2,384
7 (39%)
Sanders will drop out sometime between April 26th and July 25th, rendering this moot
7 (39%)
Clinton will drop out sometime between April 26th and July 25th, rendering this moot
1 (6%)
Other
0 (0%)
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I'll give it a shot WhenTheLeveeBreaks Apr 2016 #1
This is the second time today you invoked the Indictment Fairy DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #6
The OP asked for a path WhenTheLeveeBreaks Apr 2016 #10
I rely on analyses by trained lawyers and former prosecutors. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #11
That's strange WhenTheLeveeBreaks Apr 2016 #13
" Given enough time I can cite the analyses. I have them bookmarked." DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #16
Instead of citing anlysis from pro-Hillary sources WhenTheLeveeBreaks Apr 2016 #23
Falsus in uno, falsus in omnibus DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #24
The problem with your "analysts" is all the same problem WhenTheLeveeBreaks Apr 2016 #29
Will it go around in circles? DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #30
I Don't even Think Bernie wins Nomination if Clinton was Somehow Indicted Stallion Apr 2016 #21
is she or is she not being criminally ivestigated by the FBI .. (not partisan congress but the FBI)? berniepdx420 Apr 2016 #27
When someone talks about this issue, there is a definite "tell" WhenTheLeveeBreaks Apr 2016 #32
Not possible TeacherB87 Apr 2016 #2
She will be nominated and the Republicans will launch a new scandal... Human101948 Apr 2016 #3
Still not buying it... TeacherB87 Apr 2016 #4
She has onions. The former Massachusetts governor didn't. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #7
Bernie Sanders' campaign manager Jeff Weaver joins Steve Kornacki for a little delegate math: w4rma Apr 2016 #5
After next Tuesday he will need to win the remaining contests 65-35 but whatever. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #8
Yep. Being conservative, I expect his new number to be 65.6% of the remaining PDs. morningfog Apr 2016 #15
Despite my unkind words when provoked I have no genuine animus for the guy. DemocratSinceBirth Apr 2016 #18
I think most here enjoy the heat of the battle. morningfog Apr 2016 #20
:) jcgoldie Apr 2016 #9
You do realize, that the clip you posted isn't very flattering for Weaver? Kornacki gulps in FSogol Apr 2016 #12
Here's some REAL Math jimmy_crack_corn Apr 2016 #14
Not sure if lying, or sadly misinformed Tarc Apr 2016 #17
Sorry it was Bernie 9 Hillary 8 Blue States jimmy_crack_corn Apr 2016 #19
Using your states with one correction, lets examine electoral weight LuvLoogie Apr 2016 #31
Corection for your list.. 9 to 7 jimmy_crack_corn Apr 2016 #34
Thanks. You're right it was 2008. LuvLoogie Apr 2016 #35
Actually counting only the no "shenanigan" states it is Bernie jimmy_crack_corn Apr 2016 #38
Bernie supporters have "alleged shenanigans" in every contest Hillary has won. LuvLoogie Apr 2016 #39
Alleged = Documented jimmy_crack_corn Apr 2016 #40
Your first two links only point to front pages. The last link looks Like The "Sane" Progressives LuvLoogie Apr 2016 #41
I'm Going Out on a Limb and Think She Can Get the Pledged Delegates BEFORE Convention Stallion Apr 2016 #22
Noone is going to get to that number before the convention. MATH. (nt) w4rma Apr 2016 #25
Irrelevant. HooptieWagon Apr 2016 #26
Doesn't. Really. Matter.... More importantly, show me the math where Clinton... Raster Apr 2016 #28
Neither did Obama in 2008 Tarc Apr 2016 #33
It's 2383. Not that it matters. Garrett78 Apr 2016 #37
I have Hillary with 2195 pledged delegates MadBadger Apr 2016 #36
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