2016 Postmortem
In reply to the discussion: Bernie Sanders, Automation, and the Fate of the US [View all]paulthompson
(2,398 posts)"Are the computers becoming so adept at predictions that they can acurately project the outcome of several scenarios based upon different socio-economic inputs?"
I don't think so, at least not very well. Remember, no computer or robot actually has conscious thinking like a human, and that's not likely to happen for a long time, if ever. Predicting the future is one of the hardest things to do. Even the smartest humans are bad at it, except for anticipating general trends. I haven't heard anything about computers excelling in predicting how society in general will turn out.
Re: creativity, I know it's hard to believe, but computers are getting good at it and they're likely to get much better. Again, computers can't really think, but the can learn to mimic human creativity. For instance, computer-run machines have come up with their own paintings. Then they were mixed with paintings by actual artists and shown to art experts. The experts couldn't figure out the human ones from the computer generated ones. Ditto with music. Some computer programs can create music in the style of famous composers. Then music critics are presented with those and with obscure works by the real composers that the critics didn't know yet. Again, they can't tell the difference.
And the scary thing is that this is just the tip of the iceberg, like a toddler just starting to learn to walk. Many brilliant people believe that it's just a matter of time before computers are so far advanced that they will be able to run circles around human skills in just about anything, including every kind of creative task. It's just a question of how many years until that happens.
Remember, computers get over 1000 times more powerful (and thus "smarter" every twenty years or so, and that's been happening steadily for many decades. Humans basically stay the same. Think about that. It really boggles the mind.
There may be some things computers will never be able to do better than people if they never achieve real consciousness, but in terms of jobs that are totally safe in the long run, I'd bet that would be less than 10% of what we have now. We're basically moving towards a world without work. It's just a matter of how much time it'll take to get there, and what we'll do to adjust.