Are we on the cusp of global collapse?

[GliderGuider]

18. I should have made it clear that I agree with your original point.

Last edited Tue Sep 25, 2012, 11:10 AM - Edit history (1)

Every fundamantal invention undergoes a long period of elaboration and refinement before it can become a game-changer.

When I use the word "game-changer", I'm looking at what technologies are required to support global industrial civilization in its current form - which ones are most pervasive in their influence. So while I agree that transistors were the breakthrough, they didn't become a game-changer until VLSI was developed.

In most cases it's the combination of technologies that really changes the game - steel plus the ICE plus the assembly line gave us the modern automobile, for example. but without any of the ones I listed, civilization as we know it could not exist.

But your basic point is absolutely valid - when we're looking at a 30 year projection, the assumption that today's technologies will be the main influences over that period is absolutely valid. Is there one example of a disruptive technology that blossomed in a single decade? I can't think of one.

My point is a follow-on from yours, that even if we were to introduce such a technology in a single decade the chance that it would come without any cost to human society or the planet is zero.