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Economy
In reply to the discussion: STOCK MARKET WATCH -- Tuesday, 27 August 2013 [View all]xchrom
(108,903 posts)19. Why It Still Feels Like Recession To 95% Of America
http://www.businessinsider.com/why-it-still-feels-like-a-recession-to-95-of-america-2013-8
If you want to claim the 2008 recession ended, you have to find a metric that reflects "growth." For instance, gross domestic product (GDP), which has expanded since 2009.
But as Lance Roberts, Gordon T. Long and I discuss in Is the US in a Recession?(43 min. video, 52 slides), this metric of "growth" is suspect on a number of counts. For example, does this chart of full-time employees relative to the population look expansionary?
Or how about this chart of median household income, which adjusted for inflation isdown 7.2%?
Or how about real personal income less government personal transfers on a 5-year basis (the red line)? Notice that the red line only popped briefly above 0% into "growth" in late 2012 as those who could declared income in 2012 before the 1013 tax increases kicked in.
If you want to claim the 2008 recession ended, you have to find a metric that reflects "growth." For instance, gross domestic product (GDP), which has expanded since 2009.
But as Lance Roberts, Gordon T. Long and I discuss in Is the US in a Recession?(43 min. video, 52 slides), this metric of "growth" is suspect on a number of counts. For example, does this chart of full-time employees relative to the population look expansionary?
Or how about this chart of median household income, which adjusted for inflation isdown 7.2%?
Or how about real personal income less government personal transfers on a 5-year basis (the red line)? Notice that the red line only popped briefly above 0% into "growth" in late 2012 as those who could declared income in 2012 before the 1013 tax increases kicked in.
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