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Economy
In reply to the discussion: Weekend Economists' Harvest Ball September 21-23, 2012 [View all]xchrom
(108,903 posts)25. What Ray Dalio Said About The Rise Of Hitler Is His Most Worrisome Observation Yet
http://www.businessinsider.com/ray-dalio-on-the-rise-of-hitler-2012-9
***SNIP
This is from the partial transcript sent to us by CNBC.
RAY DALIO: I don't know whether we're beyond the point of being able to successfully manage this. And I worry then aboutsocial disruption. I worry aboutanother leg down in the economiescausingsocial disruptions. Because deleveragingcan be very painful, it depends how they're managed.
But when peopleget at each other's throat, the rich and the poor and the left and the right and so on, and you have a basic breakdown,that becomes very threatening. And for example, Hitler came to power in 1933, which was the depth of the Great Depression because of the social tension between the factions. So I think it very much is dependent on how the people work this through together and worry about the social elements.
The fact that the Neo-Nazi party is on the rise on Greece does indicate that the connection between the rise of radical elements and depression remains a phenomenon, even in 2012.
In other, richer countries this doesn't seem to be a trend at all, but it's one reason to recognize that dealing with short-term economic crises (like unemployment) is also a good long-term move (if it keeps a functioning system of democracy in check).
And for a refresh on the connection between unemployment and the rise of the Nazis, here's a great chart from SocGen:
***SNIP
This is from the partial transcript sent to us by CNBC.
RAY DALIO: I don't know whether we're beyond the point of being able to successfully manage this. And I worry then aboutsocial disruption. I worry aboutanother leg down in the economiescausingsocial disruptions. Because deleveragingcan be very painful, it depends how they're managed.
But when peopleget at each other's throat, the rich and the poor and the left and the right and so on, and you have a basic breakdown,that becomes very threatening. And for example, Hitler came to power in 1933, which was the depth of the Great Depression because of the social tension between the factions. So I think it very much is dependent on how the people work this through together and worry about the social elements.
The fact that the Neo-Nazi party is on the rise on Greece does indicate that the connection between the rise of radical elements and depression remains a phenomenon, even in 2012.
In other, richer countries this doesn't seem to be a trend at all, but it's one reason to recognize that dealing with short-term economic crises (like unemployment) is also a good long-term move (if it keeps a functioning system of democracy in check).
And for a refresh on the connection between unemployment and the rise of the Nazis, here's a great chart from SocGen:
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We have an errant tropical storm in the vicinity, since we're talking about weather (& climate),
Ghost Dog
Sep 2012
#38
Take the Test to See If You Might Be Considered a “Potential Terrorist” By Government Officials
Demeter
Sep 2012
#11
What Ray Dalio Said About The Rise Of Hitler Is His Most Worrisome Observation Yet
xchrom
Sep 2012
#25
Oh, I think you've been aware for awhile, this just solidfies the conversion, n/t
DemReadingDU
Sep 2012
#42
Charles Hugh Smith: It's not about "saving" housing, it's about saving the banks.
DemReadingDU
Sep 2012
#50