Last edited Thu Jun 16, 2016, 04:51 AM - Edit history (3)
And here's my analysis:
In the 2012 Presidential Election, President Obama won re-election over Gov.Mitt Romney, 332 electoral votes to 206. Obama carried 26 states including the District of Columbia while Romney carried 24 states.
The popular vote totals were 65,915,796(51.1%) for Obama and 60,933,500(47.2%) Those are the numbers.
Assuming the Electoral College map holds the same in 2016 as it did in 2012, then a Democratic nominee will defeat a Republican nominee with pretty much the same numbers.
Mind you, the Republican nominee still came in 2nd despite having full support of the party, was generally liked and respected by the party leadership and pretty much had an uncontested primary run and a unanimous nomination at the convention. This year's Republican nominee, Donald Trump will NOT have such circumstances. He will have a fractured convention, a fractured party that's on the precipice of being rendered to the "political wilderness" for at least a generation, it is intellectually bankrupt and the conservative movement is past the end of a 30 year cycle of ideological relevance.
Donald Trump may appeal to white males 35-60, but that's a demographic group on the downswing, as opposed to women, African-Americans, Hispanics and millenials (who like in 2008, will be motivated to turn out in a presidential election in large numbers)
The vast majority of Republican strength lies in the South; Texas, North Carolina and Kentucky having large Electoral College numbers and relatively large populations. As you turn west, the states where Republicans dominate have low EC numbers and small populations; less "bang for the EC buck", so to speak. So even if all the white people in every one of those "red"states voted and they suppressed every non white vote, it wouldn't change the number of Electoral Votes; 206.
However, the Democrats with the "blue" states such as New York, California, Wisconsin, Illinois, and Florida with large EC numbers and populations will more than offset the numbers of the South. States like Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida will be battleground states the Democrats must hold in order to maintain the margin of victory. THEY ARE KEY. Given the respective campaigns organization and staffing, Hillary should have the forces necessary to out campaign Trump in those states. He can't depend on just TV appearances alone; he has to have a "ground game" developed, which I don't believe he does even at this LATE date.
Given that Hillary, is NOT a popular candidate that will serve to depress her popular vote total. I predict that Hillary will garner less votes than Obama; I'd say about 60 million votes. While I predict Trump won't crack the 50 million mark.
Any thoughts?
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