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Response to herding cats (Reply #37)

Wed Aug 21, 2019, 12:59 PM

48. I'm working on updating this:

Last edited Wed Aug 21, 2019, 06:54 PM - Edit history (1)

This was created back on August 2 when the July numbers were reported:

Job growth has already slowed down in 2019 so far.
Summary: Average monthly net new jobs created
220,000 Obama's last 30 months (includes all of January 2017)
191,000 Trump's 30 months (February 2017 through July 2019)
165,000 2019 so far (January through July)
141,000 February through July 2019

Job numbers: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001

Monthly changes: https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/CES0000000001?output_view=net_1mth

And yes yes, the unemployment rate is at about 50 year lows, but note that the prime age (25-54) labor force participation rate is below the pre-Great Recession average, going back to about 1987. (And it dropped another 0.2% in July)
http://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS11300060
https://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1002&pid=12256909

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To revise, I guess the 501,000 revision is for the 12 month period April 1, 2018 through March 31, 2019 (9 months in 2018, and 3 months in 2019)

and like you say that's about 42,000/month average. So I'd revise the "Trump's 30 months" above by 501,000 total fewer jobs (which over 30 months comes to 16,700 fewer jobs/month average)

and revise the "2019 so far" by 501,000/12 * 3 months = 125,250 total fewer jobs (which over 7 months comes to 17,893 fewer jobs per month average)

and the "February through July 2019" by by 501,000/12 * 2 months = 83,500 fewer total jobs (which over 6 months comes to 13,917 fewer jobs per month average)

or something.

If so, it would look something like:

220,000 Obama's last 30 months (includes all of January 2017)
174,300 Trump's 30 months (February 2017 through July 2019)
147,000 2019 so far (January through July)
127,000 February through July 2019

The above isn't final -- I will have to work with the actual job numbers rather than working with the rounded averages from my first table, but should be reasonably close unless I made a big boo boo. And of course assuming that the 501,000 downward revision applies to the period April 2018 through March 2019. (and I can only assume the amount of the revision each month is the same, given no other information).

EDITED 402p ET - corrected Trump's 30 months in above from 178,000 to 174,300.

EDITED 755p ET - See post #56 -- they will be revising the 12 monthly numbers January through December of 2019
So it looks like the entire 501,000 revision (if that number holds) will all be in the 2019 numbers. So what I did above is not quite right.




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progree Aug 21 #22
Wellstone ruled Aug 21 #24
progree Aug 21 #25
herding cats Aug 21 #37
LineLineLineReply I'm working on updating this:
progree Aug 21 #48
mr_lebowski Aug 21 #54
progree Aug 21 #56
slumcamper Aug 21 #26
Scruffy1 Aug 21 #27
exboyfil Aug 21 #28
IronLionZion Aug 21 #29
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 21 #30
progree Aug 21 #33
MarkmBha1 Aug 21 #32
mahatmakanejeeves Aug 21 #35
area51 Aug 21 #39
NoMoreRepugs Aug 21 #43
duforsure Aug 21 #44
wiggs Aug 21 #47
Bengus81 Aug 21 #50
AKing Aug 21 #57
Nitram Aug 22 #58
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