Time For The Generals To Do Their Job And Have The Military Step In.....

[onenote]

47. Impeachment is far more likely and certain than invoking the 25th amendment

To invoke the 25th amendment, several steps have to take place.

First, the Vice President and a majority of either the principal officers of the executive departments or of such other body as Congress may by law provide, have to transmit to the leadership of the House and Senate their written declaration that the President is unable to discharge the powers and duties of his office, at which point the Vice President assumes the powers and duties of the office as Acting President.

Let's dissect that: Congress demanding his removal is meaningless unless the aforementioned first step is taken. Will Trump's cabinet follow Congress' lead if they call for the cabinet to act? I see no reason to think they would. For one thing, I doubt they would agree with the concept that Trump is "unable" to discharge the powers and duties of his office. He's discharging them, just not in a way that a majority of the country supports. Congress could pass legislation setting up a "body" to make the declaration, but even if you could get a majority of the House and Senate to do so, Trump could and would veto it. So you'd need to have veto proof majorities.

Assuming the necessary 2/3 vote to establish a body to declare the president unable to discharge his duties (and I'm not sure what body the repubs and Democrats would agree on), Trump could, immediately send a message to the leadership of Congress that no inability to discharge the duties of the office exist, at which point a majority of the cabinet or the body appointed by Congress has to make a new declaration within four days and then Congress has 21 days to vote and only if 2/3 of both Houses agree does the VP again take over. On the face of the amendment, nothing would stop Trump from again notifying Congress that he is able and starting the process over again and again.

Impeachment actually would be more certain and probably less time-consuming. It also would only require a majority vote in the House, not a 2/3 vote.

The 25th amendment almost certainly wasn't intended for use when a president is able to carry out the duties and powers of the office but does so in a way that a majority doesn't like. It was intended for circumstances where a president literally cannot act. That doesn't mean the 25th couldn't be used to displace a president whose behavior is as appalling outside the norm as Trump's. But it makes it a lot less likely that the folks that need to make that decision will do so, and in so doing set a precedent that could be followed in future circumstances. Impeachment is a more familiar course of action and one that is far more likely to be followed than the invocation of the 25th amendment.