What the hell happened to the Democrats downballot?!

[Awsi Dooger]

12. We are not a midterm party

Single women and minorities aren't motivated. Consequently the electorate is less female, more white, more conservative, and older than in presidential years.

Obviously none of that works in our favor, and there are no indications anything will change. We can have successful midterms but only when independents slant sharply our way due to either satisfaction with a Democratic administration or -- far more likely -- severe dissatisfaction with a Republican administration.

The upside in a wave midterm is never anywhere close to what the GOP enjoys. During 2006 I remember thinking Republicans would net 80 or 90 seats in an environment like that. Bush had an approval rating in the 37 range in early November 2006 when Democrats picked up 31 seats. Contrast to early November 2010, when Obama had a low but not miserable approval rating of 45 but Democrats lost 63 seats.

Again, this all goes back to the devastating bottom line of 3 self-identified conservatives for every 2 self-identified liberals nationwide. A Rachel Maddow type is never going to spotlight that category but it's the reality and it dictates margin for error and therefore outcomes. We simply can't fight in as many places. If we make a push in unfriendly territory in a favorable environment it merely drops the margin to single digits. The opposition can shove unlikely race after race over the top when they own the situational edge.

I noticed our midterm lull as far back as 1978, when I was fresh in college. There was a jackass loudmouth conservative professor who used to hang out in the student newspaper office for a half hour or so every afternoon, for some reason. He was maybe 15 years older than I was but I could battle with him talking politics and he seemed to relish it. He was convinced Republicans would dominate the '78 midterm and that Reagan would win in 1980. I thought he was nuts about Reagan's chances but I sensed he was correct about the midterm. There didn't seem to be any energy at all among Democrats that year. Hey, we finally retook the presidency in 1976 so now we can take a nap.

When I joined this site prior to the 2002 midterm there was false sense of confidence. Everybody seemed to think the revenge motive for the 2000 Gore outcome would be plenty. That ignored 9-11 and all the indications from Pew and other polling firms that certain demographics had become scared and more security conscious.

My discouragement during midterms is that 2/3 of all governorships are decided in those years. Our bench suffers.