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L. Coyote

(51,129 posts)

87. When same guy wins lottery five times, probability is very low. That's what the OP is saying.

Sun May 28, 2017, 08:42 PM

May 2017

The OP isn't saying the same guy can't win the Lotto five times. It is possible and you can define the odds by multiplying the odds of winning each one.

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This! This! This all day long. Without comment [View all] LaydeeBug May 2017 OP

Putin with help from his friends in Trump Tower. oasis May 2017 #1

+1 dalton99a May 2017 #33

But math is science and science is sorcery. ProudLib72 May 2017 #2

Lord... mastermetaphysics May 2017 #28

I didn't need that image. BlancheSplanchnik May 2017 #50

Stolen malaise May 2017 #3

I believe the vote counts were flipped in some of the states TheDebbieDee May 2017 #4

I believe the votes were flipped in 2016 and 2004 INdemo May 2017 #79

A math teacher SCantiGOP May 2017 #5

Not to me they don't NBachers May 2017 #7

Don't agree mountain grammy May 2017 #9

+++ agree iluvtennis May 2017 #70

Could be stolen, but this isn't the evidence. Lucky Luciano May 2017 #80

Yes-wrong. Statistician here. Problem is polls may have been flawed. american_ideals May 2017 #10

Not to mention .16% is probably based on the 5 states being independent events. Lucky Luciano May 2017 #13

Yup american_ideals May 2017 #39

Hmmm Lucky Luciano May 2017 #78

I was referring to bias in the means but such covariance could cause problems too. american_ideals May 2017 #105

They are independent polls, all robust with determineed margins of error. L. Coyote May 2017 #81

Not what I mean by independent events. Think of it like this... Lucky Luciano May 2017 #84

I'm saying is you can do the coin flip test five times and the odds are you will get 50% all five. L. Coyote May 2017 #86

. Lucky Luciano May 2017 #91

Yup, its hopeless. Some people have no understanding that the factors that make a poll wrong progree May 2017 #92

Your level of misunderstand is remarkable. L. Coyote May 2017 #93

That is a quite remarkable misunderstanding of basic high school (let alone graduate) statistics. BzaDem May 2017 #97

You need to read up on polling, and on margins of sampling error progree May 2017 #98

Mathematician here. I agree LeftInTX May 2017 #15

I wonder what the percent chance was that Trump would cheat by messing with vote totals. Squinch May 2017 #53

You mean, you castigated this OP on an ASSUMPTION you made? LaydeeBug May 2017 #30

No. Must rule out simpler explanations american_ideals May 2017 #38

and in this instance, the 'simpler explanation' is supposition. LaydeeBug May 2017 #41

Distortion of the scientific method. american_ideals May 2017 #52

...is exactly what that's doing. LaydeeBug May 2017 #55

No. Statistics isn't about ruling out other explanations. It is mathematics. L. Coyote May 2017 #82

Sorry, you can only reject the null if your model is correct american_ideals May 2017 #103

not a statistician... tomp May 2017 #44

Neither. Just OP's conclusion isn't supported. american_ideals May 2017 #51

Question about exit polls MichMary May 2017 #54

as I said, I'm no statistician.... tomp May 2017 #59

Exit polling is inferential statistics, sampling in a scientific manner. L. Coyote May 2017 #83

Professional polls take all that into account. Honeycombe8 May 2017 #60

I don't disagree american_ideals May 2017 #104

I think Trump didn't expect it. Honeycombe8 May 2017 #106

that's what they said in 2000; they haven't fixed this yet? these polls used to be very accurate... TheFrenchRazor May 2017 #73

+1. And it doesn't do us any good. Hoyt May 2017 #11

True, but how can any election be fair if their can be no recount and voting The Wielding Truth May 2017 #26

There's been a great deal of forensic review of the data SticksnStones May 2017 #32

She used a straight forward calculation of win probabilities from 538 for FL, MI, NC, PA and WI LonePirate May 2017 #56

I agree, I could tell Nate Silver was really unsure about what might happen Quixote1818 May 2017 #57

If you google "Ron Baiman" you will find triron May 2017 #6

No you won't find good analysis mythology May 2017 #17

I will check him out because this seems to be bothering some and they gaslight reflexively LaydeeBug May 2017 #40

Those States were Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Florida, what was the other? kairos12 May 2017 #8

North Carolina. Please see #25 for the percentages and methodology (nt) progree May 2017 #27

I'm a math guy and that logic is unsound. Lucky Luciano May 2017 #12

This message was self-deleted by its author blueinredohio May 2017 #14

You better believe it. sandensea May 2017 #16

People win the lottery LostinRed May 2017 #18

This argument would make sense if we held millions of lotteries. eggplant May 2017 #20

thank you. nt LaydeeBug May 2017 #31

The funny thing is that I meant to say millions of elections. eggplant May 2017 #63

When same guy wins lottery five times, probability is very low. That's what the OP is saying. L. Coyote May 2017 #87

I live in York PA and I have said many times that when I vote I touch a name on the screen and then JoeOtterbein May 2017 #19

the machines are a joke; no one would accept them for anything else important. nt TheFrenchRazor May 2017 #75

I'm not so hot on math tonight but wouldn't .01 be one percent and the 16 would be 16 one hundredths keithbvadu2 May 2017 #21

Yes, that math teacher doesn't know percentages progree May 2017 #25

You obviously know very little about statistics, too little to criticize math teachers. L. Coyote May 2017 #88

Sorry, a probability of 0.0016 is not 16 ten thousands of 1%. And yes, I have an MSEE progree May 2017 #90

The Republicans could also have hacked the voting machines. Liberty Belle May 2017 #22

Putin probably didn't need to; the Republicans already rigged them in red states Liberty Belle May 2017 #23

Oh, I think the Russians and Republicans coordinated with one another for sure. LaydeeBug May 2017 #35

Same thinking here. Also screws democracy and social progressivism. triron May 2017 #66

from accounting class... If it cannot be audited, something is suspicious. keithbvadu2 May 2017 #36

Florida seemed most improbable to me. boston bean May 2017 #24

Check out Mike Farb on North Carolina. LaydeeBug May 2017 #34

And Wisconsin in relation to black box voting percentage. L. Coyote May 2017 #89

You betcha. 58Sunliner May 2017 #29

You should delete this thread. It makes DU look stupid, i.e., suffering KingCharlemagne May 2017 #37

Voter suppression and propaganda shifted them american_ideals May 2017 #42

I think Hillary's campaign also suffered from over-confidence. She repeated Gore's KingCharlemagne May 2017 #43

Thanks for the voice of reason SCantiGOP May 2017 #45

Hillary repeated Gore's mistakes and added a devastating one of her own Awsi Dooger May 2017 #65

Case in point: her campaign ran TV ads in the SoCal market in KingCharlemagne May 2017 #68

I know you're right Dem2 May 2017 #76

YOU should delete your post. where is the evidence that the vote counts were legit? oh yeah, the vot TheFrenchRazor May 2017 #77

Written by someone with ZERO understanding of statistics. - nt KingCharlemagne May 2017 #85

You should delete this post. It makes DU look like people don't read the OPs. L. Coyote May 2017 #94

I have always believed Trump is illegitimate and got there by cheating. Demsrule86 May 2017 #46

I've always wondered about that treestar May 2017 #47

Of Course the Voting Machines Were Hacked dlk May 2017 #48

Not a statistician. The question of hacking of certain types of voting machines Enoki33 May 2017 #61

ALL of our elections are rigged... roomtomove May 2017 #49

Shhhh. We're not supposed to say that. Honeycombe8 May 2017 #58

I've been saying this since the election results came in but couldn't figure Maraya1969 May 2017 #62

The number .0016 is NOT "16 ten thousandths of 1%." Towlie May 2017 #64

Absolutely SCantiGOP May 2017 #69

True. P 0.0016. Where P 0.50 is 50% probability, i.e. a coin toss. L. Coyote May 2017 #95

I think absentee votes need to be looked at. drm604 May 2017 #67

Those of us that supported her weren't fooled. (nt) ehrnst May 2017 #71

Oh, good lord. paleotn May 2017 #72

But nobody can or will do anything about it. ecstatic May 2017 #74

This is absurd, and shows a basic lack of understanding of high school probability and statistics. BzaDem May 2017 #96

Wrong polls. This is about the exit polls. L. Coyote May 2017 #100

Those percentages in Hux's tweets are not based on exit polls progree May 2017 #101

You are confusing "exit polls" with "statistics". Exit polls use statistics, but a problem with BzaDem May 2017 #102

Explain Minnesota - a state Hillary narrowly WON (by 1.5%). When Minnesota's that tight, Midwestern Democrat May 2017 #99