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spin

(17,493 posts)
52. If I had polling data how could I tell if it was accurate or not? ...
Sat Dec 31, 2016, 02:25 AM
Dec 2016

All the polling data prior to the election showed Trump had ABSOLUTELY no path to win 270 votes in the Electoral College. I had great faith in these polls but they were dead wrong. Consequently I have developed a lot of distrust for polls and the people who take them.

I did find this interesting opinion piece in the Boston Globe.

Understanding the undecided voters
By Diane Hessan NOVEMBER 21, 2016

***snip***

At first, I couldn’t understand how anyone could be undecided. The distinction between Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton was so clear to me, the gap so wide. Much to my surprise, it was easy to find the Undecideds: people who had significant enough reservations about both candidates that they were searching for a sign, looking for more information, or just waiting it out until November.

Over the summer, I found and interviewed over 300 undecided voters, and 250 of them agreed to stay in touch, to send me weekly diary entries about their emotions, what they were thinking about both Clinton and Trump, and how they were leaning when it came to their vote. I had no responsibility to change their views; instead, I synthesized the data that I was collecting, and reported in to the campaign. I also added the insights that I had and made regular suggestions about how the campaign might better articulate its positions and modify its strategies

***snip***

During the debates, I tracked what was compelling and reported in. They liked it when Clinton was calm and not shouting. They were bombarded by NRA ads that claimed Clinton would take away their guns. It bothered them that Trump was a bully and was outrageous in his insensitivity to people with disabilities. It bothered them that someone on Clinton’s staff literally took a hammer and smashed her Blackberries. On the other hand, Bernie Sanders was right: My voters were sick of hearing about e-mails.

Last week, I reread all of my notes. There was one moment when I saw more undecided voters shift to Trump than any other, when it all changed, when voters began to speak differently about their choice. It wasn’t FBI Director James Comey, Part One or Part Two; it wasn’t Benghazi or the e-mails or Bill Clinton’s visit with Attorney General Loretta Lynch on the tarmac. No, the conversation shifted the most during the weekend of Sept. 9, after Clinton said, “You can put half of Trump supporters into what I call the basket of deplorables.”

***snip***

Things were not the same after that, at least with my voters. I remember wondering whether that moment was like Romney’s 47 percent: a comment during a fund-raiser from which the candidate would never recover, proof that, like Romney, Clinton was an out-of-touch rich person who didn’t really get it. It struck me that many of the people who were considering Trump were just hard-working Americans who wanted better odds for a good life.

***snip***

It is crushing to me that Clinton lost. When my mother was dying, in 2014, she told me that her only regret was that she never saw a woman president. I wanted to see one, and Clinton was my big chance: a smart, committed, experienced woman who would be trusted to deal with the most serious of crises. I could taste her victory: Even with her flaws, she was running against a misogynistic, racist, inexperienced birther.
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/11/21/understanding-undecided-voters/9EjNHVkt99b4re2VAB8ziI/story.html


The surprising part to me is that if Hillary did lose a significant number of the undecided voters because of her "deplorable" statement why didn't Trump lose even more undecided voters with his many obnoxious statements? Did the undecided voters give Trump a break because he wasn't a polished politician?

To be honest there are times when I feel I have stepped into a parallel universe where the rules are far different and logic is illogical. The problem is I can't seem to find a way to return to my home universe.
He knows better than that underpants Dec 2016 #1
Soo, he didn't mean what he said? cwydro Dec 2016 #29
Anyone who is willing to destroy the country due to hurt feelings deserves the condescension. LonePirate Dec 2016 #2
+100000000 JHan Dec 2016 #4
And the far end of the spectrum of rhetoric coming from Trumpist Dumbfuckistan, people get killed. baldguy Dec 2016 #22
The real irony here is that the right-wingers scream about 'special snowflakes wanting safe spaces' LeftishBrit Dec 2016 #72
+1,000,000. HughBeaumont Dec 2016 #59
Yeah.. JHan Dec 2016 #3
+1 uponit7771 Dec 2016 #8
+1000 JustAnotherGen Dec 2016 #55
+ 1,000. HughBeaumont Dec 2016 #60
"Mmm, holy shit, what is this?" A-Schwarzenegger Dec 2016 #5
Speak for yourself, asshole! 50 Shades Of Blue Dec 2016 #6
Another white or rich liberal who can afford Benedict Donald... why listen to these people? uponit7771 Dec 2016 #7
The fact the term 'working-class' has been hijacked by the right and the left keeps using it nini Dec 2016 #9
Good point on the working class! Generator Dec 2016 #44
It plays right into their game of working people are republicans nini Dec 2016 #46
+1000000! SammyWinstonJack Dec 2016 #63
"The contempt is not for the 'working-class' but those who voted with their racism, homophobia..." Different Drummer Dec 2016 #73
When somebody says some racist shit should we ignore them? Yo_Mama_Been_Loggin Dec 2016 #10
there are working class people in the east and west coast JI7 Dec 2016 #11
EXACTLY!!!!! Working class people from coast to coast! Wiseman32218 Dec 2016 #48
how about the way his friend ted nugent talks about certain people JI7 Dec 2016 #12
Actual published interview can be found here... PoliticAverse Dec 2016 #13
Yup, if we hadn't disenfranchised hundreds of thousands of voters gratuitous Dec 2016 #14
And Don't Forget Me. Dec 2016 #19
Trump is a privileged east coast person JI7 Dec 2016 #15
Bourdain's mostly correct. Hubris led to displays of contempt. aikoaiko Dec 2016 #16
Even if it was true it was the one of the most stupid things she did. m-lekktor Dec 2016 #18
oh fuck that bullshit, Trump insulted our intelligence on a daily basis Fast Walker 52 Dec 2016 #20
Politics isn't a fair game is the only answer I have for you. aikoaiko Dec 2016 #23
There is no doubt that Hillary's statement about 1/2 of Trumps supporters ... spin Dec 2016 #27
do you have any polling data to support your assertion? If not, I would KingCharlemagne Dec 2016 #49
If I had polling data how could I tell if it was accurate or not? ... spin Dec 2016 #52
That is an amazing find (and my compliments and heartfelt KingCharlemagne Dec 2016 #54
You might well be right about white make supremacy. ... spin Dec 2016 #65
Bullshit. tenderfoot Dec 2016 #17
They don't have contempt for them treestar Dec 2016 #21
Very good point. It's the bigots who have contempt for anybody else. yardwork Dec 2016 #39
Are we supposed to wipe their asses for them too? NightWatcher Dec 2016 #24
We do not have contempt for the working class. Quite the contrary. smirkymonkey Dec 2016 #25
Rich white guy gives interview to Libertarian magazine Reason... SidDithers Dec 2016 #26
This is not surprising because Bourdain will swallow anything. A-Schwarzenegger Dec 2016 #28
...from the same "man" who sees fighting on the floor as Dawson Leery Dec 2016 #30
The Daily Mail is a right-wing British tabloid oberliner Dec 2016 #31
Interesting, I must say I have to agree with this quote. frankieallen Dec 2016 #32
Bull. Coastal liberals have contempt for bigots of all stripes. pnwmom Dec 2016 #33
Fuck those bumpkins NewsomeSF Dec 2016 #34
I clicked on this thread intending to reply "You mean yourself, you smug asshole?" Iggo Dec 2016 #35
Bourdain for DNC chair LittleBlue Dec 2016 #36
I doubt this, actually. yardwork Dec 2016 #37
Bourdain is assuming everyone is like him. He is an extreme elitist. I doubt he thinks any of us stevenleser Dec 2016 #38
"morons and rubes" are now seeking the protection of political correctness. oasis Dec 2016 #40
No one has more contempt for the working class than do republicans SharonClark Dec 2016 #41
Exactly - that's the real story! RiverStone Dec 2016 #43
my only problem with this is those red state okieinpain Dec 2016 #42
The problem isn't red-state, gun-country, working-class America... milestogo Dec 2016 #45
Dude needs to eat more brains. n/t BlueSpot Dec 2016 #47
I have contempt for stupid, racist, hate-filled people regardless of whatever the hell they are. BlueStater Dec 2016 #50
I partially agree with him. Snackshack Dec 2016 #51
He could do with examining his own hypocrisy muriel_volestrangler Dec 2016 #53
There's some parts of the South where I suspect he'd get his ass kicked... Buckeye_Democrat Dec 2016 #56
This message was self-deleted by its author DemocratSinceBirth Dec 2016 #57
It cuts both ways MountCleaners Dec 2016 #58
Maybe Anthony needs to take a gander at this: HughBeaumont Dec 2016 #61
I might point out to Anthony that if it wasn't for "privileged Eastern liberals," the people he is Vinca Dec 2016 #62
Anthony is right jack_krass Dec 2016 #64
He's right alarimer Dec 2016 #66
Bull Puckey... Close-minded Fundamentalism (not just the religious sense) JCMach1 Dec 2016 #67
Anthony needs to read this article: JCMach1 Dec 2016 #68
The majority of working class people are NOT fearful racist gun humping white guys. hunter Dec 2016 #69
Speak for yourself, Bourdain! LeftishBrit Dec 2016 #70
The right-wing elite are playing a very clever game IMO LeftishBrit Dec 2016 #71
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