General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: It tells us nothing at this point that HRC beats Bernie among women and poc. [View all]frazzled
(18,402 posts)Hillary Clinton might have a following among women and people of color for some real, and rather fundamental reasons? Namely, (a) she is a woman; and (b) the Clintons have a very loyal, long-standing constituency among African-Americans. You'll recall, for instance, that Bill Clinton was dubbed the "first black president." If you further recall, back in 2008 Hillary Clinton was leading Obama dramatically among blacks until after the latter's strong showings in Iowa and a few other states. Even then it was a tough choice.
So while I agree that things can always change in an election, and that it is still very early, I find it somewhat ridiculous, and insulting, to propose that the candidate's apparent advantages among these groups is purely fictional.
I have no preferred candidate in this primary at the moment (for the first time ever). I like them both (though, frankly, I wouldn't mind seeing someone younger than either get into the game). One thing to keep in mind is that (despite my reference to 2008 above), this is not 2008. There were 8 Democratic candidates then. As of now, there are only these 2 (with perhaps a few more about to join in). Although Clinton had a lead at this point back then, it was in the 30-percentage range, with voters split among the rest of the crowded field (Obama steadily climbing as things went along). One person closing the gap against such a commanding lead will not be so easy in a smaller field. And very few candidates have the political talent and zeitgeist appeal that Obama did.
It's always depressing to me when I hear people resort to arguments that the polls are fixed, or that the media is directing people's decisions. I've lived with those delusions myself in previous elections, working very hard on the ground for a particular candidate, and learned that they are just that: delusions. I decided that I'd never again get so besotted by a candidate that I would be deluded into thinking that if people would only listen they would surely agree with me and choose my candidate. It's self-centered, and its insulting to the people who vote. If you think you're a populist, you'd better respect the people.
So whatever happens (and I'd be okay with either candidate), let's keep it real. And let's not resort to conspiracies to explain the results.