General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Pres Jimmy Carter: Why a generation of white men have solidly embraced the GOP [View all]hfojvt
(37,573 posts)but it was never clear to me which way Perot voters would break. To me, they all sounded kinda conservative, and Perot in some ways also sounded more progressive than Clinton.
Clinton won by a lot of electoral votes in 1992. And he would only need, for example 31% of Perot voters in order to still win in Louisiana. Only 29.5% to still win Tennessee. Only 27.7% to still win Missouri. Only 26% to still win New Mexico. Only 40% to still win Kentucky. Only 27% to still win Pennsylvania only 10% to still win West Virginia.
And he could lose some of those states and still win. Bush would need to get 70% of Perot voters or more, and it is not obvious to me that Perot voters would split for Bush-Clinton by 70% to 30%, much less the 75%-25% he would need to win Missouri and Pennsylvania.