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In reply to the discussion: What the Data Says About Pandemic School Closures, Four Years Later [View all]muriel_volestrangler
(101,396 posts)58. Hmm - "experts say, extended closures did little to stop the spread of Covid" isn't backed up with much
It's covered in these 2 paragraphs:
That was largely unknown in the spring of 2020, when schools first shut down. But several experts said that had changed by the fall of 2020, when there were initial signs that children were less likely to become seriously ill, and growing evidence from Europe and parts of the United States that opening schools, with safety measures, did not lead to significantly more transmission.
Infectious disease leaders have generally agreed that school closures were not an important strategy in stemming the spread of Covid, said Dr. Jeanne Noble, who directed the Covid response at the U.C.S.F. Parnassus emergency department.
Infectious disease leaders have generally agreed that school closures were not an important strategy in stemming the spread of Covid, said Dr. Jeanne Noble, who directed the Covid response at the U.C.S.F. Parnassus emergency department.
The earliest link is to a Lancet article published April 6th, 2020, based mainly on MERS/SARS studies - this is, I submit, useless for a discussion of the COVID-19 pandemic.
Then we have an NYT article from June 12, 2020 "How 133 Epidemiologists Are Deciding When to Send Their Children to School", which is their best guesses in June (most common answer was "this fall" ), not a study of what the effects actually were.
Then we have an actual study of Covid-19, from August 2020, "an age-structured mathematical model to epidemic data from China, Italy, Japan, Singapore, Canada and South Korea ... we find that interventions aimed at children might have a relatively small impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 transmission, particularly if the transmissibility of subclinical infections is low."
Then an NYT article from October 2020 saying "schools do not seem to be stoking community transmission of the coronavirus, according to data emerging from random testing in the United States and Britain". But I'd point out that was just before a massive increase in infection in Britain that was worse than the first wave (thanks to the "Kent" variant).
Finally, we have a European report from December 2020, which starts with a big caveat: "This report does not consider the epidemiology of COVID-19 in relation to new variants of concern for SARS-CoV-2, such as one recently observed in the United Kingdom (VOC 202012/01), for which robust evidence on the potential impact in school settings is not yet available". And its conclusion was "School closures can contribute to a reduction in SARS-CoV-2 transmission, but by themselves are insufficient to prevent community transmission of COVID-19 in the absence of other nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) such as restrictions on mass gathering".
So really, the NYT is not looking at "did school closures affect the general transmission?", but "did we think they affected the general transmission before variants came along?". And the ideas were mixed then, anyway.
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Question how many senior citizens and other aged infirmed people are still alive because kids weren't bringing home....
usaf-vet
Mar 24
#78
It seems pretty obvious: the longer kids aren't learning in school or at home, they further they fall behind.
sop
Mar 24
#6
"The shutdowns in America didn't work because there was never full compliance. Ever."
Hugin
Mar 24
#17
Esactly. The shutdowns were a joke. We should have really shut down, completely for a few weeks and ended the spread.
lindysalsagal
Mar 24
#20
This is the correct response to the article. Remote learning does not directly correlate with self-controlled isolation.
keopeli
Mar 24
#40
I serve on a School Board. COVID had huge impacts on academic success and learning skills
brooklynite
Mar 24
#11
What about the deaths of educators pressured into working during a lethal viral pandemic?
Timeflyer
Mar 24
#12
Extremely little coverage of teacher losses. Tells you how much we don't value our teachers.
lindysalsagal
Mar 24
#21
They should add to the charts the in-school students who got sick and the in-school students who died.
Liberal In Texas
Mar 24
#13
A lot of these "public health and education experts" are people like Ron Desantis and Dr. Joseph Ladapo.
sop
Mar 24
#18
These averages are misleading: There are always students who can just "do the math" with or without teachers
lindysalsagal
Mar 24
#22
You have thick skin to not to be a little freaked by exponential viral spread with overcapacity emergency rooms. nt
Shermann
Mar 24
#26
Public health measures in the pandemic tried to balance competing risks, each unknown.
hay rick
Mar 24
#53
New Zealand had a high rate of spread as well as Singapore even with Draconian mitigation measures.
Yavin4
Mar 24
#69
It seemed obvious and I advocated for just redoing the Covid two years and every educator said that would be wrong.
dutch777
Mar 24
#52
Hmm - "experts say, extended closures did little to stop the spread of Covid" isn't backed up with much
muriel_volestrangler
Mar 24
#58
And even if children were found to be less likely to become seriously ill, their parents and grandparents
Scrivener7
Mar 24
#63
Turns out "if the transmissibility of subclinical infections is low" was a big "if"
muriel_volestrangler
Mar 27
#90
I'm glad we're learning from the mistakes made during COVID so we're much better prepared when the next
beaglelover
Mar 24
#64
The educational establishment are the ones that consider themselves as the experts
MichMan
Mar 24
#82