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DontBelieveEastisEas

(517 posts)

29. I think the polling is wrong.

Sat Mar 23, 2024, 08:21 PM

Mar 23

Last edited Sat Mar 23, 2024, 09:27 PM - Edit history (4)

I have edited everything I wrote the first draft, because I thought the numbers had an obvious flaw, now I tend to agree the poll is just wrong,

A January poll by this outfit had some similar fishy numbers.
Total, 18-34, 35-49, 50-64, 65+

Joe Biden, Democrat
44%,,,,,,, 43%, 37%, 45%, 52%
Donald Trump, Republican
44%,,,,,,, 41%, 50%, 47%, 40%

Which also shows the oldest age group being strong Biden supporters.

You will notice in the OP that the same poll that has Biden behind with young voters, shows him ahead with older voters.
I thought, the numbers were likely accurate, but flipped. (Biden's counts are Trump's counts)

But, it seems the poll really does report this.

It seems the thread's post is accurate from the link at,
https://civiqs.com/documents/Civiqs_DailyKos_monthly_banner_book_2024_03_8zn7pf.pdf

I had believed it was transcribed in error!

Research Methodology
https://civiqs.com/methodology

It's given, I believe, 2.5 stars out of 3 on 538, but I don't trust it from here on out.

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Polling isn't off. It's wrong. [View all] angrychair Mar 23 OP

This message was self-deleted by its author LetMyPeopleVote Mar 23 #1

Polling tells us nothing. So do approval ratings. wryter2000 Mar 23 #2

Polls are bought and paid for. A well designed poll can give you what ever results you desire. Chainfire Mar 23 #3

News media was suffering financially angrychair Mar 23 #6

Then what about this? WarGamer Mar 23 #4

Without having seen the polls in question, my guess is Fiendish Thingy Mar 23 #7

Good point... WarGamer Mar 23 #11

I'm saying all polls angrychair Mar 23 #9

yeah... that makes sense. WarGamer Mar 23 #10

Always read the methodology and cross tabs Fiendish Thingy Mar 23 #5

Good Explanation! ProfessorGAC Mar 23 #8

Me, too. ShazzieB Mar 23 #16

My stats understand is pretty basic but doesn't further increase the margin of error? unblock Mar 23 #12

I have tried to explain "reweighting" to people Phoenix61 Mar 23 #20

Reweighting isn't part of basic statistics Fiendish Thingy Mar 23 #25

My point was if you don't understand a random sample Phoenix61 Mar 23 #27

Indeed Fiendish Thingy Mar 23 #30

I'm sure there's a premium on pollsters selling the media.... Think. Again. Mar 23 #13

None of that proves polling is wrong. All Mixed Up Mar 23 #14

Yes, let's poll a small amount of people, using technology and methods 4lbs Mar 23 #15

They are mostly garbage. NoMoreRepugs Mar 23 #17

Pollsters... GiqueCee Mar 23 #18

My favorite example of a loaded question is... Phoenix61 Mar 23 #21

BINGO! GiqueCee Mar 23 #22

Many younger participants aren't even reading many of the questions... EarthFirst Mar 23 #24

It's also irrelevant at this point in an election year Warpy Mar 23 #19

We DUers live in what I would call Mr.Bill Mar 23 #23

They can all poll my finger. nt miyazaki Mar 23 #26

If the polls overall are NOT off, wrong, or broken and Trump wins elocs Mar 23 #28

I think the polling is wrong. DontBelieveEastisEas Mar 23 #29

I hope the polling is wrong, but we're beginning to sound like a bunch of people whistling past the graveyard here Silent3 Mar 24 #31