General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: Biden's Best Shot Lies In Three 'Blue Wall' States [View all]All Mixed Up
(597 posts)I said we can't expect it to deliver Biden the White House. We need to really focus on minority voters. Biden isn't going to win Pennsylvania in 2024 with the union vote. It'll help but it's not enough to get him over the line.
My point is that in 2020, Biden lost the union vote in Pennsylvania. Maybe Biden does better, and that will certainly help, but if he loses a bit of support among Black voters, it's not going to make much difference.
For Biden to win in Pennsylvania, he'll need to win Black voters by as close to 90% as possible (he won them by 92% in 2020 there). Latinos he needs to win by margins close to 70% (he won them by 69% in Pennsylvania).
If he loses five-points off his total with both Blacks and Latinos, and narrowly wins the union vote over losing it, that probably won't be enough.
That's all I'm saying, especially with fewer percentage of the workforce actually belonging to unions.