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In reply to the discussion: Reminder: HRC lost the Electoral College by less than 100K votes spread over 3 states. [View all]Celerity
(43,655 posts)84. More background on 2016
Black voter turnout fell in 2016, even as a record number of Americans cast ballots
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/
The black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election, falling to 59.6% in 2016 after reaching a record-high 66.6% in 2012. The 7-percentage-point decline from the previous presidential election is the largest on record for blacks. (Its also the largest percentage-point decline among any racial or ethnic group since white voter turnout dropped from 70.2% in 1992 to 60.7% in 1996.) The number of black voters also declined, falling by about 765,000 to 16.4 million in 2016, representing a sharp reversal from 2012. With Barack Obama on the ballot that year, the black voter turnout rate surpassed that of whites for the first time. Among whites, the 65.3% turnout rate in 2016 represented a slight increase from 64.1% in 2012.
Why black voter turnout fell in 2016
How voting Democratic has become integral to African Americans cultural identity.
https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2018/1/15/16891020/black-voter-turnout
Black Voters Arent Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party. Its a familiar headline in the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election. Indeed, post-election analysis of voter data shows black turnout in presidential elections declined 4.7 percent between 2012 and 2016 (overall turnout showed a small decline from 61.8 percent in 2012 to 61.4 percent in 2016).
How do we explain it and can it be changed? My ongoing research with Ismail White on political norms among black Americans says we ought to have expected the decline, but that the Democratic Party can do much more to cut it back by recognizing how social dynamics shape African-American politics.
Some have attributed the decline in black turnout to voter suppression tactics made possible by the Shelby v. Holder (2013) decision that rescinded key protections from the Voting Rights Act. But black turnout saw similar declines in states where no new voter laws were implemented after the Shelby decision. Others have simplistically pointed to the absence of the first black president on the ballot as if that fact offers an explanation. Our work on the social dynamics of politics within the black community provides the missing explanation.
In our recent publication in the American Political Science Review, we argue that the continued social isolation of blacks in American society has created spaces and incentives for the emergence of black political norms. Democratic partisanship has become significantly tied to black identity in the United States. The historical and continued racial segregation of black communities has produced spaces in which in-group members can leverage social sanctions against other group members to ensure compliance with group partisan norms.
snip
Study: Black turnout slumped in 2016
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/10/black-election-turnout-down-2016-census-survey-238226
Census shows pervasive decline in 2016 minority voter turnout
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/05/18/census-shows-pervasive-decline-in-2016-minority-voter-turnout/
Study: Black voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by nearly one-fifth in 2016
https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/study-black-voter-turnout-in-wisconsin-declined-by-nearly-one/article_d3e72e41-96a0-51fb-83ba-11dfc6693daf.html
Turnout among black voters in Wisconsin dropped about 19 percent in the 2016 election from 2012, more than four times the national decline, according to a new study by a liberal group.
The study, released by the Center for American Progress, made the estimates based on data from the U.S. Census, polls and state voter files.
It provides the strongest evidence yet that Wisconsins decline in voter turnout, while seen in other demographic groups, was much more dramatic among African-Americans.
The study also found in Wisconsin, as in other key states, the 2016 electorate was significantly more white and non-college- educated than was reported by exit polls immediately after the election.
snip
Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didnt Vote and Dont Regret It
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/us/many-in-milwaukee-neighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html
MILWAUKEE Four barbers and a firefighter were pondering their future under a Trump presidency at the Upper Cutz barbershop last week.
We got to figure this out, said Cedric Fleming, one of the barbers. We got a gangster in the chair now, he said, referring to President-elect Donald J. Trump.They admitted that they could not complain too much: Only two of them had voted. But there were no regrets. I dont feel bad, Mr. Fleming said, trimming a mustache. Milwaukee is tired. Both of them were terrible. They never do anything for us anyway.
Wisconsin, a state that Hillary Clinton had assumed she would win, historically boasts one of the nations highest rates of voter participation; this years 68.3 percent turnout was the fifth best among the 50 states. But by local standards, it was a disappointment, the lowest turnout in 16 years. And those no-shows were important. Mr. Trump won the state by just 27,000 voters.
Milwaukees lowest-income neighborhoods offer one explanation for the turnout figures. Of the citys 15 council districts, the decline in turnout from 2012 to 2016 in the five poorest was consistently much greater than the drop seen in more prosperous areas accounting for half of the overall decline in turnout citywide.
The biggest drop was here in District 15, a stretch of fading wooden homes, sandwich shops and fast-food restaurants that is 84 percent black. In this district, voter turnout declined by 19.5 percent from 2012 figures, according to Neil Albrecht, executive director of the City of Milwaukee Election Commission. It is home to some of Milwaukees poorest residents and, according to a 2016 documentary, Milwaukee 53206, has one of the nations highest per-capita incarceration rates.
At Upper Cutz, a bustling barbershop in a green-trimmed wooden house, talk of politics inevitably comes back to one man: Barack Obama. Mr. Obamas elections infused many here with a feeling of connection to national politics they had never before experienced. But their lives have not gotten appreciably better, and sourness has set in.
snip
and when they did vote there was this...
Mostly black neighborhoods voted more Republican in 2016 than in 2012
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/25/mostly-black-neighborhoods-voted-more-republican-in-2016-than-in-2012/
snip
A few things jump out. First: The most heavily white neighborhoods voted much more heavily Republican in 2016 than in 2012 (the dark red line shoots up past the light-red one). Second, the most heavily black neighborhoods voted less heavily Democratic last year than four years ago. (Well come back to this, obviously.) Third, Hispanic neighborhoods voted for Republicans less than in 2012.
The net effect of those shifts can be measured by comparing the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 with the Trump-Clinton margin in each neighborhood last year. In heavily white neighborhoods, a big shift to the Republicans. In mostly Hispanic neighborhoods, generally more support for the Democrat, except in the most dense places (although, as the chart on the right makes clear, the sample size for those is very small and therefore more subject to volatility).
snip
This Chart Shows Philadelphia Black Voters Stayed Home, Costing Clinton
A shift in Philadelphia voter turnout, which broke along racial lines, appears to have cost Hillary Clinton almost 35,000 votes.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/johntemplon/this-chart-shows-philadelphia-black-voters-stayed-home-costi
One of the most surprising results of Election Day was Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania a state that had voted for the Democrat in every election since 1988. As of the Pennsylvania Board of Elections latest tally, Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 57,588 votes. More than 60% of that margin comes from a shift in the vote in Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia data offers a particularly clear glimpse at what went wrong for Hillary Clinton: A block of voters who showed up for Barack Obama wasnt inspired enough by her or scared enough by Donald Trump to show up. And as analysts pore over the results of the campaign, the numbers in Philadelphia offer perhaps the most devastating single data point for the Clinton campaign.
snip
massive drop in 85% black Detroit too
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2017/05/12/black-voter-turnout-fell-in-2016-even-as-a-record-number-of-americans-cast-ballots/
The black voter turnout rate declined for the first time in 20 years in a presidential election, falling to 59.6% in 2016 after reaching a record-high 66.6% in 2012. The 7-percentage-point decline from the previous presidential election is the largest on record for blacks. (Its also the largest percentage-point decline among any racial or ethnic group since white voter turnout dropped from 70.2% in 1992 to 60.7% in 1996.) The number of black voters also declined, falling by about 765,000 to 16.4 million in 2016, representing a sharp reversal from 2012. With Barack Obama on the ballot that year, the black voter turnout rate surpassed that of whites for the first time. Among whites, the 65.3% turnout rate in 2016 represented a slight increase from 64.1% in 2012.
Why black voter turnout fell in 2016
How voting Democratic has become integral to African Americans cultural identity.
https://www.vox.com/mischiefs-of-faction/2018/1/15/16891020/black-voter-turnout
Black Voters Arent Turning Out For The Post-Obama Democratic Party. Its a familiar headline in the aftermath of the 2016 presidential election. Indeed, post-election analysis of voter data shows black turnout in presidential elections declined 4.7 percent between 2012 and 2016 (overall turnout showed a small decline from 61.8 percent in 2012 to 61.4 percent in 2016).
How do we explain it and can it be changed? My ongoing research with Ismail White on political norms among black Americans says we ought to have expected the decline, but that the Democratic Party can do much more to cut it back by recognizing how social dynamics shape African-American politics.
Some have attributed the decline in black turnout to voter suppression tactics made possible by the Shelby v. Holder (2013) decision that rescinded key protections from the Voting Rights Act. But black turnout saw similar declines in states where no new voter laws were implemented after the Shelby decision. Others have simplistically pointed to the absence of the first black president on the ballot as if that fact offers an explanation. Our work on the social dynamics of politics within the black community provides the missing explanation.
In our recent publication in the American Political Science Review, we argue that the continued social isolation of blacks in American society has created spaces and incentives for the emergence of black political norms. Democratic partisanship has become significantly tied to black identity in the United States. The historical and continued racial segregation of black communities has produced spaces in which in-group members can leverage social sanctions against other group members to ensure compliance with group partisan norms.
snip
Study: Black turnout slumped in 2016
https://www.politico.com/story/2017/05/10/black-election-turnout-down-2016-census-survey-238226
Census shows pervasive decline in 2016 minority voter turnout
https://www.brookings.edu/blog/the-avenue/2017/05/18/census-shows-pervasive-decline-in-2016-minority-voter-turnout/
Study: Black voter turnout in Wisconsin declined by nearly one-fifth in 2016
https://madison.com/wsj/news/local/govt-and-politics/study-black-voter-turnout-in-wisconsin-declined-by-nearly-one/article_d3e72e41-96a0-51fb-83ba-11dfc6693daf.html
Turnout among black voters in Wisconsin dropped about 19 percent in the 2016 election from 2012, more than four times the national decline, according to a new study by a liberal group.
The study, released by the Center for American Progress, made the estimates based on data from the U.S. Census, polls and state voter files.
It provides the strongest evidence yet that Wisconsins decline in voter turnout, while seen in other demographic groups, was much more dramatic among African-Americans.
The study also found in Wisconsin, as in other key states, the 2016 electorate was significantly more white and non-college- educated than was reported by exit polls immediately after the election.
snip
Many in Milwaukee Neighborhood Didnt Vote and Dont Regret It
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/21/us/many-in-milwaukee-neighborhood-didnt-vote-and-dont-regret-it.html
MILWAUKEE Four barbers and a firefighter were pondering their future under a Trump presidency at the Upper Cutz barbershop last week.
We got to figure this out, said Cedric Fleming, one of the barbers. We got a gangster in the chair now, he said, referring to President-elect Donald J. Trump.They admitted that they could not complain too much: Only two of them had voted. But there were no regrets. I dont feel bad, Mr. Fleming said, trimming a mustache. Milwaukee is tired. Both of them were terrible. They never do anything for us anyway.
Wisconsin, a state that Hillary Clinton had assumed she would win, historically boasts one of the nations highest rates of voter participation; this years 68.3 percent turnout was the fifth best among the 50 states. But by local standards, it was a disappointment, the lowest turnout in 16 years. And those no-shows were important. Mr. Trump won the state by just 27,000 voters.
Milwaukees lowest-income neighborhoods offer one explanation for the turnout figures. Of the citys 15 council districts, the decline in turnout from 2012 to 2016 in the five poorest was consistently much greater than the drop seen in more prosperous areas accounting for half of the overall decline in turnout citywide.
The biggest drop was here in District 15, a stretch of fading wooden homes, sandwich shops and fast-food restaurants that is 84 percent black. In this district, voter turnout declined by 19.5 percent from 2012 figures, according to Neil Albrecht, executive director of the City of Milwaukee Election Commission. It is home to some of Milwaukees poorest residents and, according to a 2016 documentary, Milwaukee 53206, has one of the nations highest per-capita incarceration rates.
At Upper Cutz, a bustling barbershop in a green-trimmed wooden house, talk of politics inevitably comes back to one man: Barack Obama. Mr. Obamas elections infused many here with a feeling of connection to national politics they had never before experienced. But their lives have not gotten appreciably better, and sourness has set in.
snip
and when they did vote there was this...
Mostly black neighborhoods voted more Republican in 2016 than in 2012
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/politics/wp/2017/09/25/mostly-black-neighborhoods-voted-more-republican-in-2016-than-in-2012/
snip
A few things jump out. First: The most heavily white neighborhoods voted much more heavily Republican in 2016 than in 2012 (the dark red line shoots up past the light-red one). Second, the most heavily black neighborhoods voted less heavily Democratic last year than four years ago. (Well come back to this, obviously.) Third, Hispanic neighborhoods voted for Republicans less than in 2012.
The net effect of those shifts can be measured by comparing the margin between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney in 2012 with the Trump-Clinton margin in each neighborhood last year. In heavily white neighborhoods, a big shift to the Republicans. In mostly Hispanic neighborhoods, generally more support for the Democrat, except in the most dense places (although, as the chart on the right makes clear, the sample size for those is very small and therefore more subject to volatility).
snip
This Chart Shows Philadelphia Black Voters Stayed Home, Costing Clinton
A shift in Philadelphia voter turnout, which broke along racial lines, appears to have cost Hillary Clinton almost 35,000 votes.
https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/johntemplon/this-chart-shows-philadelphia-black-voters-stayed-home-costi
One of the most surprising results of Election Day was Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania a state that had voted for the Democrat in every election since 1988. As of the Pennsylvania Board of Elections latest tally, Trump leads Hillary Clinton by 57,588 votes. More than 60% of that margin comes from a shift in the vote in Philadelphia.
The Philadelphia data offers a particularly clear glimpse at what went wrong for Hillary Clinton: A block of voters who showed up for Barack Obama wasnt inspired enough by her or scared enough by Donald Trump to show up. And as analysts pore over the results of the campaign, the numbers in Philadelphia offer perhaps the most devastating single data point for the Clinton campaign.
snip
massive drop in 85% black Detroit too
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Reminder: HRC lost the Electoral College by less than 100K votes spread over 3 states. [View all]
pnwmom
May 2022
OP
No it is not the correct answer...just an excuse really. And there is no excuse IMHO.
Demsrule86
May 2022
#120
Hillary would've been president from 2016-2020 if not for reasons already discussed.
brush
May 2022
#14
Even if he had gotten away with it, the Court would have no conservative majority.
Beautiful Disaster
May 2022
#11
Incumbents rarely lose. Let's see, in 32 Herbert Hoover lost, in 1976 Jimmy Carter lost,
Demsrule86
May 2022
#122
Even if he doesn't, there's not enough conservative justices to overturn Roe.
Beautiful Disaster
May 2022
#9
Let's be honest, if Clinton had become POTUS, the Repuke House would have impeached her within days
DickKessler
May 2022
#36
So what you are implying is that it was OK to not vote for Democratic nominee because
Demsrule86
May 2022
#124
This whole discussion is a "what-if"-- about what would have happened with the SC
DemocraticPatriot
May 2022
#188
Ok...if you say so...whatever gets you through...what could be the end of our Republic
Demsrule86
May 2022
#125
We might have taken the Senate...at the midterm or even during the election...so that is not
Demsrule86
May 2022
#119
That is true. What distubs me about this is that...you get the feeling that some have learned
Demsrule86
May 2022
#178
You are so fucking right! Progressives don't like to talk about those losses
demosincebirth
May 2022
#5
You are assuming those tens of millions would have voted for a progressive. I'm not.
pnwmom
May 2022
#16
And the reality is that those progressives who voted 3rd party decided to let the perfect
pnwmom
May 2022
#34
So you are saying that we don't have to vote for the Democratic nominee for President.
Demsrule86
May 2022
#131
You're right. It is about the country. Do you agree then, that RBG should have retired before 2015?
DickKessler
May 2022
#211
Except if we do not acknowledge the stupid of THEN, we will do the stupid again.
LizBeth
May 2022
#175
300K voters were turned away at the polls in Wisconsin alone for lacking proper ID
Spider Jerusalem
May 2022
#13
And yet the 3rd party progressives could have turned the election around DESPITE
pnwmom
May 2022
#17
I don't understand why liberals would rather blame the left than Republicans
Spider Jerusalem
May 2022
#25
If you want to win over progressive voters, give them a progressive candidate
Spider Jerusalem
May 2022
#28
Anyone who thinks HRC wasn't progressive is nuts. She wasn't center-right by any definition.
pnwmom
May 2022
#33
I only blame "progressives" who failed to vote for the only Democrat running in November,
pnwmom
May 2022
#42
She very much was centre-right by the definition of the majority of the world
Spider Jerusalem
May 2022
#39
The WORLD wasn't voting in the US election, so the US electorate is the only one that mattered. n/t
pnwmom
May 2022
#44
And those "actual leftists" who viewed her as center-right and therefore unworthy
pnwmom
May 2022
#46
A candidate they could vote for would be one that millions of Democrats would be repulsed by.
pnwmom
May 2022
#48
Then stop complaining that you didn't get their votes, since you clearly don't want them?
Spider Jerusalem
May 2022
#49
Given the choice between two candidates I find repugnant I might make the same choice.
Spider Jerusalem
May 2022
#123
I, for one, do indeed despise them more than the republicans. They knew what was at stake,
LongtimeAZDem
May 2022
#192
We got Trump because some people saw her as a centrist and voted for her anyway?
Cuthbert Allgood
May 2022
#142
The narratives that took hold during the 2016 general election campaign are stunning
lapucelle
May 2022
#203
+1, democrats to this day don't understand how effective anti voter laws are
uponit7771
May 2022
#112
Faulty logic - If Stein and Nader hadn't run, their supporters would've stayed home.
TheRickles
May 2022
#21
Gary Johnson's voters would have largely gone to Hillary. But that isn't the main issue.
StevieM
May 2022
#83
Lofty goals that can't be achieved as claimed are intensely imperfect, though.
Hortensis
May 2022
#19
I believe Sheldon Cooper said it to Neil DeGrasse Tyson on the Big Bang Theory. (eom)
StevieM
May 2022
#86
those states were packed with conservatives. Red state moderates VOTED FOR TRUMP, not progressives
bigtree
May 2022
#29
We could blame those voters. Or we could blame those who didn't vote for someone more "electable"
DickKessler
May 2022
#30
Why? The last GS speech was by the Co-CEO of KKR, founder of the Asian American Foundation.
betsuni
May 2022
#57
Being paid a lot of money to give speeches by someone who hopes you'll act in their interest....
Spider Jerusalem
May 2022
#75
Being paid for doing a job is bad if Hillary. Becoming a millionaire by writing
betsuni
May 2022
#152
What corruption? What influence? Name anything. Appearance? Name one real thing.
betsuni
May 2022
#161
Most people over the course of decades changed. I already explained to you that she did NOT
pnwmom
May 2022
#56
She voted for the AUMF; she could've voted no. She didn't vote no. Don't try to justify it.
Spider Jerusalem
May 2022
#58
Boston Globe, 2016: HRC has run the most progressive presidential campaign in history of the US.
pnwmom
May 2022
#61
I don't know any Democratic progressives who hated Hillary and gave Trump the benefit of the doubt,
pnwmom
May 2022
#59
And yet there were enough Jill Stein voters to have swung the election. Bernie might
pnwmom
May 2022
#157
Hillary is too perfect to ever get any blame. It's all the fault of evil leftists and Bernie Bros.
Spider Jerusalem
May 2022
#166
What were all those folks treated to from a non-Democrat. The messaging that Democrats
Nixie
May 2022
#209
I only stated statistical facts, the 2016 race was so close that multiple things could have tipped
Celerity
May 2022
#81
again with false charges and also non sequiturs, with personal attacks added in
Celerity
May 2022
#97
That's a false charge, there are many reasons why Clinton lost, and I, unlike many, do not narrow
Celerity
May 2022
#93
"It's like 3 people shooting someone all at once, at the same time, fatal with all 3 combined..."
Nixie
May 2022
#103
utterly false framing and projection to try and insinuate something sinister into a simple analogy
Celerity
May 2022
#111
I projected nothing, you are the one projecting with your repeated references and false
Celerity
May 2022
#129
No, you are falsely, outrageously trying to make a false connection to things that have nothing
Celerity
May 2022
#145
Nothing superfluous, absolutely germane. You are falsely erecting a Potemkin village of a narrative
Celerity
May 2022
#169
I don't have to apologize for what you wrote. It's a completely irrational technique
Nixie
May 2022
#186
No, you can spin it all you want, but you are the one playing personal attack and invent a false
Celerity
May 2022
#193
you apparently do not understand what spam is, nor can you compare slanderous personal attacks
Celerity
May 2022
#158
What do you call your attempts to get me to engage on a personal level with you?
Nixie
May 2022
#206
I am not cutting and pasting, most of the text is my own original typing, if you do not want to
Celerity
May 2022
#159
You should take your own advice. If you don't want to read how someone responds to your own words,
Nixie
May 2022
#207
Yes, and it's obvious her links don't match how she summarizes them. She indicated she understands
Nixie
May 2022
#208
Thanks for this info. Clinton's loss was more complex than many want to see. For some it's all
jalan48
May 2022
#108
even the scapegoat does not hold up, even if you use a very much extreme overestimate
Celerity
May 2022
#114
Revisionism is correct. Failure can then be blamed on someone else, the scapegoat.
jalan48
May 2022
#115
I was fearful at the time, that AA turnout would drop significantly without Barack Obama
DemocraticPatriot
May 2022
#187
"decline in black turnout to voter suppression tactics " is more of a factor for black voter drop ..
uponit7771
May 2022
#113
"though in PA and MI there were no new restrictive laws passed between 2012 and 2016. "
BumRushDaShow
May 2022
#195
I did not state that there were no restrictive laws in place. I only said that post 2012 election,
Celerity
May 2022
#196
I was referring to between the 2012 and 2016 elections, not the calendar years, meaning that both
Celerity
May 2022
#198
As bad as the Rethugs are in the US House and US Senate (and they are shit bad) there are many
Celerity
May 2022
#200
I just posted in another thread that mentions some issues early on (2013) in Michigan
BumRushDaShow
May 2022
#201
Any time there is a traumatic even they refight the 2016 primary all over again
Doc Sportello
May 2022
#165
Or we can just put our hands over our ears, do stupid all over again. Sarandon today is working
LizBeth
May 2022
#177
I will not forgive, I will not forget. How many times were we told women issues were NOT
LizBeth
May 2022
#173