General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: In your opinion, where are we in this pandemic? [View all]Amishman
(5,541 posts)18.4 million cases world wide.
7 billion people.
0.26%
Assume 4x that due to lack of testing or faked numbers from oppressive countries.
So 1% of the global population has gotten it.
Its not going away, too contagious and widespread to stop - it can only be slowed. There are concerns of the feasibility of an effective vaccine and also duration of immunity. This would make herd immunity impossible.
Worst case, everyone gets it eventually, we are 1% of the way there. Less than that if reinfection / mutation follows the pattern of other corona viruses (such as those that are part of the collection that comprise the common cold)
Middle case, no vaccine but herd immunity is possible through vaccine or conventional exposure and immune response. We stop at around 50% infected. Then we are 2% of the way there.
Best case, vaccine in about a year with lighting distribution. We might only end up with a billion or two infected.