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Amishman

(5,541 posts)
22. very early, perhaps 1-5% of the way there.
Wed Aug 5, 2020, 08:29 AM
Aug 2020

18.4 million cases world wide.
7 billion people.
0.26%

Assume 4x that due to lack of testing or faked numbers from oppressive countries.

So 1% of the global population has gotten it.

Its not going away, too contagious and widespread to stop - it can only be slowed. There are concerns of the feasibility of an effective vaccine and also duration of immunity. This would make herd immunity impossible.

Worst case, everyone gets it eventually, we are 1% of the way there. Less than that if reinfection / mutation follows the pattern of other corona viruses (such as those that are part of the collection that comprise the common cold)

Middle case, no vaccine but herd immunity is possible through vaccine or conventional exposure and immune response. We stop at around 50% infected. Then we are 2% of the way there.

Best case, vaccine in about a year with lighting distribution. We might only end up with a billion or two infected.

Still in the beginning. We have 2 - 3 years to go before we get back to theaters, concerts etc Arazi Aug 2020 #1
I'd say we'd be lucky to be back to normal by next spring, but you're probably closer. brewens Aug 2020 #5
3rd inning dem4decades Aug 2020 #2
I was going to say bottom of the 2nd MANative Aug 2020 #18
Potentially, we could have it "subdued." Grokenstein Aug 2020 #3
Beginning jpak Aug 2020 #4
Agreed. Given that Covid is intertwined with the economy - the poor get hit harder, empedocles Aug 2020 #7
beginning (US will continue to be a disaster, too many RWNJ) Getting Rump and Moscow (as leader) out Celerity Aug 2020 #6
Still in the beginning peacefreak2.0 Aug 2020 #8
In just the beginning , duforsure Aug 2020 #9
If you look at other countries there's often an equal number of cases before and Doodley Aug 2020 #10
We never got out of the first wave. BlueTsunami2018 Aug 2020 #11
in our county the cases are more than when we went into shelter in place.. samnsara Aug 2020 #12
Just at the start Sherman A1 Aug 2020 #13
We are up a creek BigmanPigman Aug 2020 #14
Fucked. N/T Lochloosa Aug 2020 #15
Beginning, which is why we're acting so bungling about it soothsayer Aug 2020 #16
I'm definitely not qualified in the medical field to give an informed opinion, but Jamastiene Aug 2020 #17
beginning stage no doubt as everything that was done 4 months ago, now useless beachbumbob Aug 2020 #19
A year from now... Alacritous Crier Aug 2020 #20
We can start any time scarytomcat Aug 2020 #21
very early, perhaps 1-5% of the way there. Amishman Aug 2020 #22
We used to have weekly parties.... usedtobedemgurl Aug 2020 #23
End of the beginning. We were (barely) starting down the slope of new cases. though deaths jmg257 Aug 2020 #24
About halfway in Chapter 2 dalton99a Aug 2020 #25
Still at the beginning. llmart Aug 2020 #26
Third Inning. Baseball methaphor seems fitting, because this could also go extra innings. n/t Tom Rinaldo Aug 2020 #27
Right where we were at the beginning, no magic cures, half the country says "its just the flu, bros" Baclava Aug 2020 #28
1/8 to 1/4 of the way. Nt BootinUp Aug 2020 #29
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