And, did numbers myself. I think it's higher than 3x.
First, had he invested in S&P, he would have been 1/6th wealthier than he lied about being worth.
Then after Moody's reran his organization's credit worthiness analysis (required by law) they found property values were very overstated and debt was understated, as debt with short term "no pay" provisions were not used in the calculation of net value. It was around a billion in unstated debt.
Then, we found about Deutsche Bank. Then, we found about the China state bank loans. Then we found out about the overstatement of property value in the UK.
It seems the number is at most $800 million, with a starting point of well over $50 million by 1978, and the an inheritance in '99, (where he forgave his own LTDebt) he started at:
- Given he was president of TO in 1971, by 1999 at a modest discount rate of 4%, should have $120 million.
- Then inherited $320 million. Total at this point, with a modest growth rate, is $460 million.
20+ years later, even at the same low ROIC, should be up to a billion, with limited debt.
Using S&P as you suggest, those "loans" should have grown to $360-400 million, and adding the inheritance and 21 more years, would be a bit under $4 billion.
So, I see 5x.
Less than he lied about, but 5x of reality.
Now, being heavy in S&P, but being in NASDAQ since the late 80s, expanding foreign investment into Bonn & Tokyo, net return would have approached 10% annualized.
The net would be closer to $6 billion which is higher than he even lied about. And, 7.5x what is the likely actual.
Either way, with all the chicanery, he underperformed the markets massively.
He could have been far wealthier doing nothing!
Successful, my rear!
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