Experts Think The U.S. COVID-19 Death Toll Will Hit 50,000 By The End Of April

[Bernardo de La Paz]

9. My best guess is that (50K) will be the count about April 24 or 25th. Then

Then I worry about a spike developing and being noticed around then. It may be confirmed on 3-day moving averages a couple of days later, around the 27th. My guess is that it would be detectable in national data but far from obvious and a blow up at the local levels. It would take longer to confirm at the national level, needing say 7 day moving averages?

Source of spike? This weekend's throngs worry me as superspreaders. The protests are bad enough, but you know a number of churches will be full or fairly well attended on Sunday. Will physical distancing be observed? Hmm. Will there be no singing? That is possibly the main mechanism of spreading in churches according to a DU post. Makes sense: all exhale and all inhale, making a large air volume mixture. Places are going to have good weather and barbecues and lots of "Oh hi Jenny" half hour convos.

Anyway, it would not surprise me if a number of alarm bells are ringing at the end of April just as El Puffy-in-Chief is getting ready to crow about "opening up" May 1. His handlers may be able to get him shut up, but he may end up feeling very peeved and wounded.

I don't know. I am not an epidemiologist. I just worry that if the trumpanzees are ever going to wake up, they may need to be shocked badly by a spanking from reality that they can't deny: dead people they know. It is that bad inside the cult.