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Bernardo de La Paz

(48,789 posts)
16. Deaths lag. Spreading has not stopped. Shutdown is not total. Many are not doing it.
Sat Apr 4, 2020, 08:12 AM
Apr 2020

US case load is slowing down a bit. Doubling every 3.5 days (guesstimate) instead of every 2.5 like it was for a week. But the death rate increase is not yet. It is still a straight line on logarithmic (log) charts, meaning continued exponential growth.

But deaths lag. It takes 1 to 14 days for symptoms to appear. Then after that it takes something like 10 days for the average death to occur (not sure of exact figure). Some people don't go easily and succumb after fighting it in ICU for 3 weeks.

I expect the peak infection rate in NYC in a day or two or three. (I don't really know, of course, ... nobody knows for sure). But the death rate will continue to grow for some time, piling up deaths. Peak in NY state might be several days later. Peak infection rate country-wide will be at least a week from now and perhaps two or more.

But the death rate peak will be 10 days or two weeks later.

Go to https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/italy/ and click the logarithmic option on the Italy Cases and Deaths charts. To my eye, the case rate began flattening around March 16. But the death rate didn't budge from a straight line until about March 29, which is almost 2 weeks later.

The doctors and epidemiologists know that's how it works. That's why flattening the curve is so important, because the peak approaches and comes down on areas like a hammer.

They told tRump, many times over.

But, because his re-election is involved, he refused to believe them and tried to tweet it away.

I need some help understanding [View all] boston bean Apr 2020 OP
Because of the scarcity of test kits, there's no way to know how many are infected. brush Apr 2020 #1
But shouldn't those people who had it stopped spreading due to the shut down? boston bean Apr 2020 #3
They've had weeks to spread it. We're seeing the results of that. brush Apr 2020 #4
It is more contagious than people think/thought BigmanPigman Apr 2020 #2
people are still ignoring the issue, people are still working, gatheringand the spread will continue beachbumbob Apr 2020 #5
There is usually a three week lag time as well janterry Apr 2020 #6
There's still a lot of people in denial of the danger everywhere. KY_EnviroGuy Apr 2020 #7
Hi-5 Bro canetoad Apr 2020 #12
I saw something a while back that might explain it. It said the greatest spread Squinch Apr 2020 #8
I truly feel sympathy for those living in crowded apartment buildings.... KY_EnviroGuy Apr 2020 #18
I'm in an apartment outside NYC. So far only one of my neighbors had it, though Squinch Apr 2020 #19
Not everyone can isolate at home (think essential workers), and both Tanuki Apr 2020 #9
Very true SheltieLover Apr 2020 #13
I'm in MA, and I asked those same questions today. Croney Apr 2020 #10
Timing BB canetoad Apr 2020 #11
Plus this lunasun Apr 2020 #14
Fox news lag? Their viewers are at least a month behind. pwb Apr 2020 #15
Deaths lag. Spreading has not stopped. Shutdown is not total. Many are not doing it. Bernardo de La Paz Apr 2020 #16
As an example when I started tracking my state gibraltar72 Apr 2020 #17
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