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Quixote1818

(28,918 posts) Sat Mar 28, 2020, 09:35 PM Mar 2020

I see a slight leveling on the logarithmic chart for the US the past few days. Here is my fear [View all]

Last edited Sun Mar 29, 2020, 01:22 AM - Edit history (4)

If the curve begins to flatten out more in the next couple weeks because we are doing things RIGHT and a lot of states still have relatively low numbers because they acted early, there will start to be a lot of pressure to open things back up. You know Trump will break from the experts and start putting pressure on Republican (and Dem) Govs and then it will just take right off again because Trump doesn't understand math and doesn't care who he kills. I am betting we will get a very premature "Mission Accomplished" speech from the Commander of Grief.

Go to the graph below to where it says 'Total Coronavirus Cases in the United States' and click on logarithmic:

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

It looks like the line started sagging a bit starting around March 23rd.

Edit: Thank you Ms. Toad below for the actual change in numbers:

3/22 - 138% of 3/21
3/23 - 130% of 3/22
3/24 - 125% of 3/23
3/25 - 125% of 3/23
3/26 - 124% of 3/26
3/27 - 122% of 3/26

https://www.democraticunderground.com/100213193582#post9

62 replies

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I see a slight leveling on the logarithmic chart for the US the past few days. Here is my fear [View all] Quixote1818 Mar 2020 OP

TY! SheltieLover Mar 2020 #1

a flattened curve does not mean you wont get it from sick people still out there. nt msongs Mar 2020 #2

I beg to differ. LisaL Mar 2020 #3

The rates of increase in the relevant time period: Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #9

Thanks for showing it a lot more clear than I did. nt Quixote1818 Mar 2020 #13

I've got a chart where I've been tracking it. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #16

Yes, you are the go to person for the math here from way back when. Thanks. nt Quixote1818 Mar 2020 #18

So the second derivative is negative central scrutinizer Mar 2020 #15

That's more math than I was planning on explaining here - Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #17

If you look at the total curve, you will see the condition that you mentioned happen Blue_true Mar 2020 #23

That has happened several times before at lower infection levels. nt Blue_true Mar 2020 #22

What I look for is a multi-day trend in the same direction. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #28

You have to click on the logarithmic graph Quixote1818 Mar 2020 #11

Exactly how I've been doing it. Mike Niendorff Mar 2020 #42

K&R, a flat curve helps hospitals but does not end the growth of cases. We're Italy now and uponit7771 Mar 2020 #4

There is no flat curves on there. LisaL Mar 2020 #5

Thats when I have it bending, as well. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #6

Our household will continue to protect ourselves. MerryBlooms Mar 2020 #7

I fear that's some wishful thinking (that it's slowing as of 23rd) CloudWatcher Mar 2020 #8

If you look carefully at the logarithmic chart Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #14

That has happened a couple times earlier Ms.Toad, in fact, in one case it actually reversed Blue_true Mar 2020 #24

As I noted in another response - Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #29

You could be right on your call. One of the periods that I looked at had only a 3 Blue_true Mar 2020 #37

Time will tell. n/t Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #39

One thing about China is rulers there literally put their feet on people's necks Blue_true Mar 2020 #43

It's not just blue cities and states - AND some blue cities and states Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #46

There was a time a while back when DeWine was a forward thinking, fairly rational leader. Blue_true Mar 2020 #49

My point is that we ought to recognize positive actions, regardless of party affiliation Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #50

I don't mean to squash your optimism, but I doubt there is any slowdown in the rate of infections Victor_c3 Mar 2020 #10

That's a good point. What drives the news is hospitals being overrun. Quixote1818 Mar 2020 #12

Re: the Deaths.. GopherGal Mar 2020 #19

Yes, they will trail probably for a couple of weeks. In China there are people just now dying who Quixote1818 Mar 2020 #21

Very possible. nt Blue_true Mar 2020 #25

Check me if I am wrong, but deaths more than doubled in two days? Blue_true Mar 2020 #20

The change in death rate will lag any change in new cases Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #32

I get that. Blue_true Mar 2020 #35

Having watched it in China Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #38

The numbers are not correct... Reporting tends to be all over the place JCMach1 Mar 2020 #26

During the same time... did TESTING RESULTS ALSO DECLINE? JustFiveMoreMinutes Mar 2020 #27

I don't think testing results declined - Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #34

I'm not sure about that FreeState Mar 2020 #40

There are two groups of data there Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #41

Thanks! FreeState Mar 2020 #48

So now it's evident FreeState Apr 2020 #61

No. The curve is bending. Ms. Toad Apr 2020 #62

This is good news but no reason to let up Turbineguy Mar 2020 #30

Absolutely not the time to let up. Ms. Toad Mar 2020 #33

i saw the curve flatten a abit also. assumed it was good n ews Demovictory9 Mar 2020 #31

There are many states which are at the beginning of the curve GeorgiaPeanut Mar 2020 #36

Maybe. Igel Mar 2020 #44

Help me out with some math here genxlib Mar 2020 #45

Looks like it could be more than 10000 by next Saturday nt doc03 Mar 2020 #47

I think you are making the mistake of using the data you have as the real situation. GulfCoast66 Mar 2020 #51

The hospital I work at in Seattle ismnotwasm Mar 2020 #52

3/27 6:30 pm ET WA: 254 confirmed cases currently hospitalized / 175 to date ending in death to date pat_k Mar 2020 #55

Testing continues to be so limited, the "real" numbers are essentially unknown. pat_k Mar 2020 #53

I've been watching that too, and it's good to see. Captain Stern Mar 2020 #54

I remember the last time we got a big "Mission Accomplished" from a Republican president DFW Mar 2020 #56

Sorry, but this corresponds to CDC changing testing parameters elias7 Mar 2020 #57

Those are positive test case results muriel_volestrangler Mar 2020 #58

Today's numbers dipped again FreeState Mar 2020 #59

Sunday seems to result in fewer results posted Roland99 Mar 2020 #60