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pat_k

(9,313 posts)
4. Difference between 40,000 to 160,000 deaths and 370,000 to 1.5 million
Sat Mar 28, 2020, 02:30 AM
Mar 2020

For projection of deaths assuming the continuation of strong social distancing measures and other protective measures, see the Total Deaths graph on the following page (from Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation at the University of Washington)

https://covid19.healthdata.org/projections

Using the same mortality rate for both scenarios graphed in the NY Times projections, we can expect the number of deaths estimated by IHME to increase 9.14 times if social distancing ends prematurely.

Of course, the mortality rate for the "go back to business as usual" scenario would be much higher because hospitals would be utterly overwhelmed. I have no idea how much higher the mortality rate would be, but if the current estimate of 1.5% became 3%, you'd be talking 320,000 to 3 million deaths.

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