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In reply to the discussion: The case fatality rate for COVID-19 is not "about 2%" - it's 3.4% [View all]Squinch
(50,949 posts)33. OK, you talking about behavior of the data makes me think you know more about this stuff than
I do. So let me ask you a question.
There was that big jump in new cases in one day a while back. 15000 new cases in a day. The explanation was that they had been using a test that gave 50 to 70 percent false negatives, and they had changed to a new, more accurate test.
Prior to that, the new case line in the graph had a pretty steady slope.
Then, there's that one day where the slope gets very steep.
But then, in subsequent days, the slope of the new cases line goes back to pretty much the same as it was before they changed the test.
If they are using a new test that DOESN'T give the 50 to 70% false negatives, shouldn't that line have become much steeper and stayed steeper as the new test produced many fewer false negatives?
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The case fatality rate for COVID-19 is not "about 2%" - it's 3.4% [View all]
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
OP
If you honestly think that the published number so those who've contracted
PoindexterOglethorpe
Feb 2020
#6
That percentage is probably still helpful as a benchmark vs other similar diseases though ...
mr_lebowski
Feb 2020
#5
So maybe it's turns out to be half as lethal as Spanish Flu, and affects older people
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#10
But Chinese politicians were (and are) heavily involved in the data management.
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#9
But if you don't count all the carriers, and the virus has gotten out of containment,
applegrove
Feb 2020
#14
Overcounting the cases or undercounting the deaths both make the situation look better.
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#15
But it is spreading. Other countries will be able to figure out the mortality rate
applegrove
Feb 2020
#19
The majority of those are in China though and alot of those I suspect are people that were more
cstanleytech
Feb 2020
#24
we have little dependable data as China held back for so long, and I am more concern about
beachbumbob
Feb 2020
#32