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In reply to the discussion: The case fatality rate for COVID-19 is not "about 2%" - it's 3.4% [View all]applegrove
(118,636 posts)14. But if you don't count all the carriers, and the virus has gotten out of containment,
then the fraction is off. If 20 people are carriers/mild/sick coronavirus and ten die of it, 10/20 is 50% you have a mortality rate of 50 percent.
But if you undercount the number of carriers/mild/sick coronavirus and say it is 15 instead of 20, and the number who died stays the same (they are easier to count) 10/15 the mortality rate goes up to 66%. That is 66.666%.
So if you undercount all the people who carry/mild/sick the coronavirus the mortality rate goes up.
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The case fatality rate for COVID-19 is not "about 2%" - it's 3.4% [View all]
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
OP
If you honestly think that the published number so those who've contracted
PoindexterOglethorpe
Feb 2020
#6
That percentage is probably still helpful as a benchmark vs other similar diseases though ...
mr_lebowski
Feb 2020
#5
So maybe it's turns out to be half as lethal as Spanish Flu, and affects older people
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#10
But Chinese politicians were (and are) heavily involved in the data management.
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#9
But if you don't count all the carriers, and the virus has gotten out of containment,
applegrove
Feb 2020
#14
Overcounting the cases or undercounting the deaths both make the situation look better.
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#15
But it is spreading. Other countries will be able to figure out the mortality rate
applegrove
Feb 2020
#19
The majority of those are in China though and alot of those I suspect are people that were more
cstanleytech
Feb 2020
#24
we have little dependable data as China held back for so long, and I am more concern about
beachbumbob
Feb 2020
#32