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In reply to the discussion: 2% mortality from coronavirus? I don't think so. [View all]The_jackalope
(1,660 posts)74. No, I'll leave that to the epidemiologists.
Out here in amateur-land, I noticed an odd factoid and commented on it.
I'm not going to try and derive R-nought or make quarantine recommendations or try to predict the eventual number of deaths. I just remark on what I've noticed.
A while ago I did make a projection of a possible 180,000 cases by Feb 28 based on a quadratic curve fit. I've backed off from that based on my perception that the curve may be entering a sigmoid inflection. If that is true, I have no idea what the saturation point of the curve will be, or how the death-rate curve might respond.
It's like my response to climate change projections. I think it's very useful for people to wonder how bad things could get, on the premise that forewarned is forearmed.
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I saw that too...but the died versus recovered...probably is only the people
Fresh_Start
Feb 2020
#1
Yep. Mortality likely is less than 2%, because many people infected likely never get seen.
eallen
Feb 2020
#8
If that was true, there would be no need for quarantine...keep supplies, money and water in your
Demsrule86
Feb 2020
#20
I hope you are right. The other important thing is this...will the virus be self limiting...as bad
Demsrule86
Feb 2020
#21
When news of this first came out, I heard up to a 10% mortality rate...a horrible figure...
SWBTATTReg
Feb 2020
#4
The first US patient in WA state was released from the hospital on Feb. 4 after admission on Jan. 21
LonePirate
Feb 2020
#9
The math is the math and It is probably worse as China has been lying IMHO. I am a
Demsrule86
Feb 2020
#17
That is my take also...and we don't know how honest China is being and how many are dying without
Demsrule86
Feb 2020
#16
Yeah, I saw someone on CNN earlier, I think with the CDC, who compared it to the flu.
cwydro
Feb 2020
#39
Another factor is the ability to provide the necessary treatment to those who need it.
58Sunliner
Feb 2020
#33
Either the infections or the deaths may be under-reported, for different reasons.
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#35
How do we know there aren't many more unidentified cases that are mild and never get diagnosed?
pnwmom
Feb 2020
#36
Above your post. I commented that under-reporting can be either positive or negative
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#42
We don't and we won't. Some experts think the # of infections are much higher.
58Sunliner
Feb 2020
#45
I figured about the same a few days ago, I've also screen shot the maps and rations on this site
Demonaut
Feb 2020
#47
Given the fairly large amount of unreported cases, I think the death rate will be more like 1 pct.
roamer65
Feb 2020
#66
From a different perspective; I wonder about the impact of the 5 million who
empedocles
Feb 2020
#78