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I saw that too...but the died versus recovered...probably is only the people Fresh_Start Feb 2020 #1
Yes, we don't know how inclusive the numbers are. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #2
Yep. Mortality likely is less than 2%, because many people infected likely never get seen. eallen Feb 2020 #8
If that was true, there would be no need for quarantine...keep supplies, money and water in your Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #20
It's my understanding that a number of people aren't being Crunchy Frog Feb 2020 #19
I hope you are right. The other important thing is this...will the virus be self limiting...as bad Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #21
I have been following this story very closely and yes the dewsgirl Feb 2020 #3
When news of this first came out, I heard up to a 10% mortality rate...a horrible figure... SWBTATTReg Feb 2020 #4
That's Newest Reality Feb 2020 #5
Yes, at this point it looks like 1 in 5 to me The_jackalope Feb 2020 #10
Thanks! Newest Reality Feb 2020 #13
No. Drahthaardogs Feb 2020 #6
The leading expert in the world on Coronavirus agrees with you. Blue_true Feb 2020 #25
I am a toxicologist, so even though I only dabble a bit in Drahthaardogs Feb 2020 #29
It's very contagious but also very slow progressing Amishman Feb 2020 #7
I've been noticing that, too spinbaby Feb 2020 #64
The first US patient in WA state was released from the hospital on Feb. 4 after admission on Jan. 21 LonePirate Feb 2020 #9
He was at deaths door with bilateral pneumonia and was given Remdesivir. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #40
How available is Remdesivir? The_jackalope Feb 2020 #43
Good question. It is considered an experimental drug. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #48
Statistics Tatertot Feb 2020 #11
I sure hope so. Nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #12
And your medical degree is from where? PSPS Feb 2020 #14
My degree is in computer science. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #15
All well and good but it takes more than that to understand epidemiology PSPS Feb 2020 #69
No, I'll leave that to the epidemiologists. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #74
No is pretending to be an expert in epidemiology. LanternWaste Feb 2020 #80
The math is the math and It is probably worse as China has been lying IMHO. I am a Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #17
You do when its transmitted via air droplets and fomites Drahthaardogs Feb 2020 #32
That is my take also...and we don't know how honest China is being and how many are dying without Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #16
The saying goes... "You can prove anything with statistics" Turbineguy Feb 2020 #18
In stats, the validity of conclusions are The_jackalope Feb 2020 #23
The leading epidemiologist in the world seem to disagree with you. Blue_true Feb 2020 #22
I will be very happy to be proven wrong. nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #24
I believe you will be proven wrong. The indications are already showing up. Blue_true Feb 2020 #27
I agree that at some point the curve will go from quadratic to sigmoid. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #34
If you look at all the data from the questionable Day 1 of the outbreak, Blue_true Feb 2020 #52
This isn't random sampling Azathoth Feb 2020 #72
These aren't such early days any more The_jackalope Feb 2020 #73
Uh, no. This isn't a theoretical question, it's a practical question Azathoth Feb 2020 #77
Based on what you say, I'd expect the curves to look noisy The_jackalope Feb 2020 #79
Yeah, I saw someone on CNN earlier, I think with the CDC, who compared it to the flu. cwydro Feb 2020 #39
Well SARS vs this coronovirus. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #50
Thanks! Nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #56
Well. I only stated what the leading expert on coronaviruses stated. Blue_true Feb 2020 #57
It's just info. And some pause for thought. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #75
Here we go with the unskewed polls nonsense Azathoth Feb 2020 #26
I agree with you completely. nt Blue_true Feb 2020 #28
Thanks. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #63
So going by todays numbers, lets say for the sake of argument Blues Heron Feb 2020 #30
Not "will die" The_jackalope Feb 2020 #46
I think your using the wrong number for people that have recovered Blues Heron Feb 2020 #49
I'm just using the published number. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #51
The published number isn't an estimate of people that have recovered Blues Heron Feb 2020 #55
So, what would a more accurate number be? The_jackalope Feb 2020 #58
it's got to be vastly more Blues Heron Feb 2020 #65
There's only one datapoint I know for sure - Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #70
I went on the USPS website today MontanaMama Feb 2020 #31
Another factor is the ability to provide the necessary treatment to those who need it. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #33
Either the infections or the deaths may be under-reported, for different reasons. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #35
I think they both are. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #41
How do we know there aren't many more unidentified cases that are mild and never get diagnosed? pnwmom Feb 2020 #36
See above. nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #37
Above where? pnwmom Feb 2020 #38
Above your post. I commented that under-reporting can be either positive or negative The_jackalope Feb 2020 #42
We don't and we won't. Some experts think the # of infections are much higher. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #45
A good article by an epidemiologist in NYT The_jackalope Feb 2020 #44
Another site-no paywall. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #54
Is he the "Gabtiel" you mentioned earlier? Nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #60
I don't remember Gabtiel. Was it in a link? 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #76
I figured about the same a few days ago, I've also screen shot the maps and rations on this site Demonaut Feb 2020 #47
"Total recovered" Tatertot Feb 2020 #53
Death and recovery are both resolutions The_jackalope Feb 2020 #61
not the same Tatertot Feb 2020 #67
My point was The_jackalope Feb 2020 #68
my point Tatertot Feb 2020 #71
The big key is the fairly long incubation period localroger Feb 2020 #59
Agree. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #62
Given the fairly large amount of unreported cases, I think the death rate will be more like 1 pct. roamer65 Feb 2020 #66
From a different perspective; I wonder about the impact of the 5 million who empedocles Feb 2020 #78
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