General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: 2% mortality from coronavirus? I don't think so. [View all]Blue_true
(31,261 posts)then yes, you would conclude that the growth was quadratic. But Chinese officials really mucked up at the start of this virus, so the true shape of the data near the start is questionable. I chose to ignore the first few days of data due to my concerns about it's validity, that is why I saw straight line growth instead of an exponential like some people were claiming or a quadratic like you are stating. The plot seems to have inflected from a line to a sinusoid, like I pointed out. I agree with you that it is too early to say that the sinusoid will be a decaying one, but that is what I personally believe based upon my projection of what human behavior will be.
One thing that discussing what the data for the coronavirus looks like make me appreciate is that in my career I have seldom worked with data that involved people, it is much easier to evaluate data from a bio-reactor than it is infection data that involves people, so my hat is off to the people that work human population data.