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In reply to the discussion: 2% mortality from coronavirus? I don't think so. [View all]58Sunliner
(4,375 posts)50. Well SARS vs this coronovirus.
The doctor who was the whistle-blower of this virus, was hospitalized Jan 12 (symptomatic), and did not test positive till the end of the month, just days before he died. Which strikes me as really odd as I read the patient reports I could find and there has not been any lag, per se, between onset of symptoms and positive testing. I read the initial report on the findings of the virus, the anti-bodies it generates. Unless they were messing with him. Some experts have been theorizing that the infection rate is at least ten times higher. This virus, which is like SARS, it attaches at the same cell site as SARS as well, but SARS took 4+ months to infect @ 322 people. Supposedly animal to human, mutation, human to human. This virus, by all accounts, infects hundreds, thousands, in one month. The SARS virus was initially reported as 305 cases, 5 deaths. Initial death rate @ 1.6%. The death rate, 3 months later, would be revised upward and vary significantly with age. Both viruses can cause bi-lateral pneumonia, and ARDS.
As for SARS transmission-"Scientists in the WHO network of collaborating laboratories report that the SARS virus can survive after drying on plastic surfaces for up to 48 hours; that it can survive in feces for at least 2 days, and in urine for at least 24 hours; and that the virus could survive for 4 days in feces taken from patients suffering from diarrhea (WHO Update 47)."
http://sarsreference.com/sarsref/timeline.htm
I read a report about an apt building that had a broken pipe and they thought the transmission to other tenants of this novel coronovirus was caused by this pipe. Not the flu.
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I saw that too...but the died versus recovered...probably is only the people
Fresh_Start
Feb 2020
#1
Yep. Mortality likely is less than 2%, because many people infected likely never get seen.
eallen
Feb 2020
#8
If that was true, there would be no need for quarantine...keep supplies, money and water in your
Demsrule86
Feb 2020
#20
I hope you are right. The other important thing is this...will the virus be self limiting...as bad
Demsrule86
Feb 2020
#21
When news of this first came out, I heard up to a 10% mortality rate...a horrible figure...
SWBTATTReg
Feb 2020
#4
The first US patient in WA state was released from the hospital on Feb. 4 after admission on Jan. 21
LonePirate
Feb 2020
#9
The math is the math and It is probably worse as China has been lying IMHO. I am a
Demsrule86
Feb 2020
#17
That is my take also...and we don't know how honest China is being and how many are dying without
Demsrule86
Feb 2020
#16
Yeah, I saw someone on CNN earlier, I think with the CDC, who compared it to the flu.
cwydro
Feb 2020
#39
Another factor is the ability to provide the necessary treatment to those who need it.
58Sunliner
Feb 2020
#33
Either the infections or the deaths may be under-reported, for different reasons.
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#35
How do we know there aren't many more unidentified cases that are mild and never get diagnosed?
pnwmom
Feb 2020
#36
Above your post. I commented that under-reporting can be either positive or negative
The_jackalope
Feb 2020
#42
We don't and we won't. Some experts think the # of infections are much higher.
58Sunliner
Feb 2020
#45
I figured about the same a few days ago, I've also screen shot the maps and rations on this site
Demonaut
Feb 2020
#47
Given the fairly large amount of unreported cases, I think the death rate will be more like 1 pct.
roamer65
Feb 2020
#66
From a different perspective; I wonder about the impact of the 5 million who
empedocles
Feb 2020
#78