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Blue_true

(31,261 posts)
27. I believe you will be proven wrong. The indications are already showing up.
Tue Feb 11, 2020, 08:27 PM
Feb 2020

The daily infection numbers have transitioned from a straight line to a sinusoid. That indicates that changes in behavior among people has started to lower the infection rate, but because people are people, the rate will bounce around as it follows the path of a decaying sinusoid that is pointed downward.

I saw that too...but the died versus recovered...probably is only the people Fresh_Start Feb 2020 #1
Yes, we don't know how inclusive the numbers are. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #2
Yep. Mortality likely is less than 2%, because many people infected likely never get seen. eallen Feb 2020 #8
If that was true, there would be no need for quarantine...keep supplies, money and water in your Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #20
It's my understanding that a number of people aren't being Crunchy Frog Feb 2020 #19
I hope you are right. The other important thing is this...will the virus be self limiting...as bad Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #21
I have been following this story very closely and yes the dewsgirl Feb 2020 #3
When news of this first came out, I heard up to a 10% mortality rate...a horrible figure... SWBTATTReg Feb 2020 #4
That's Newest Reality Feb 2020 #5
Yes, at this point it looks like 1 in 5 to me The_jackalope Feb 2020 #10
Thanks! Newest Reality Feb 2020 #13
No. Drahthaardogs Feb 2020 #6
The leading expert in the world on Coronavirus agrees with you. Blue_true Feb 2020 #25
I am a toxicologist, so even though I only dabble a bit in Drahthaardogs Feb 2020 #29
It's very contagious but also very slow progressing Amishman Feb 2020 #7
I've been noticing that, too spinbaby Feb 2020 #64
The first US patient in WA state was released from the hospital on Feb. 4 after admission on Jan. 21 LonePirate Feb 2020 #9
He was at deaths door with bilateral pneumonia and was given Remdesivir. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #40
How available is Remdesivir? The_jackalope Feb 2020 #43
Good question. It is considered an experimental drug. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #48
Statistics Tatertot Feb 2020 #11
I sure hope so. Nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #12
And your medical degree is from where? PSPS Feb 2020 #14
My degree is in computer science. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #15
All well and good but it takes more than that to understand epidemiology PSPS Feb 2020 #69
No, I'll leave that to the epidemiologists. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #74
No is pretending to be an expert in epidemiology. LanternWaste Feb 2020 #80
The math is the math and It is probably worse as China has been lying IMHO. I am a Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #17
You do when its transmitted via air droplets and fomites Drahthaardogs Feb 2020 #32
That is my take also...and we don't know how honest China is being and how many are dying without Demsrule86 Feb 2020 #16
The saying goes... "You can prove anything with statistics" Turbineguy Feb 2020 #18
In stats, the validity of conclusions are The_jackalope Feb 2020 #23
The leading epidemiologist in the world seem to disagree with you. Blue_true Feb 2020 #22
I will be very happy to be proven wrong. nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #24
I believe you will be proven wrong. The indications are already showing up. Blue_true Feb 2020 #27
I agree that at some point the curve will go from quadratic to sigmoid. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #34
If you look at all the data from the questionable Day 1 of the outbreak, Blue_true Feb 2020 #52
This isn't random sampling Azathoth Feb 2020 #72
These aren't such early days any more The_jackalope Feb 2020 #73
Uh, no. This isn't a theoretical question, it's a practical question Azathoth Feb 2020 #77
Based on what you say, I'd expect the curves to look noisy The_jackalope Feb 2020 #79
Yeah, I saw someone on CNN earlier, I think with the CDC, who compared it to the flu. cwydro Feb 2020 #39
Well SARS vs this coronovirus. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #50
Thanks! Nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #56
Well. I only stated what the leading expert on coronaviruses stated. Blue_true Feb 2020 #57
It's just info. And some pause for thought. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #75
Here we go with the unskewed polls nonsense Azathoth Feb 2020 #26
I agree with you completely. nt Blue_true Feb 2020 #28
Thanks. TwilightZone Feb 2020 #63
So going by todays numbers, lets say for the sake of argument Blues Heron Feb 2020 #30
Not "will die" The_jackalope Feb 2020 #46
I think your using the wrong number for people that have recovered Blues Heron Feb 2020 #49
I'm just using the published number. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #51
The published number isn't an estimate of people that have recovered Blues Heron Feb 2020 #55
So, what would a more accurate number be? The_jackalope Feb 2020 #58
it's got to be vastly more Blues Heron Feb 2020 #65
There's only one datapoint I know for sure - Ms. Toad Feb 2020 #70
I went on the USPS website today MontanaMama Feb 2020 #31
Another factor is the ability to provide the necessary treatment to those who need it. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #33
Either the infections or the deaths may be under-reported, for different reasons. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #35
I think they both are. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #41
How do we know there aren't many more unidentified cases that are mild and never get diagnosed? pnwmom Feb 2020 #36
See above. nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #37
Above where? pnwmom Feb 2020 #38
Above your post. I commented that under-reporting can be either positive or negative The_jackalope Feb 2020 #42
We don't and we won't. Some experts think the # of infections are much higher. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #45
A good article by an epidemiologist in NYT The_jackalope Feb 2020 #44
Another site-no paywall. 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #54
Is he the "Gabtiel" you mentioned earlier? Nt The_jackalope Feb 2020 #60
I don't remember Gabtiel. Was it in a link? 58Sunliner Feb 2020 #76
I figured about the same a few days ago, I've also screen shot the maps and rations on this site Demonaut Feb 2020 #47
"Total recovered" Tatertot Feb 2020 #53
Death and recovery are both resolutions The_jackalope Feb 2020 #61
not the same Tatertot Feb 2020 #67
My point was The_jackalope Feb 2020 #68
my point Tatertot Feb 2020 #71
The big key is the fairly long incubation period localroger Feb 2020 #59
Agree. The_jackalope Feb 2020 #62
Given the fairly large amount of unreported cases, I think the death rate will be more like 1 pct. roamer65 Feb 2020 #66
From a different perspective; I wonder about the impact of the 5 million who empedocles Feb 2020 #78
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