General Discussion
In reply to the discussion: 2% mortality from coronavirus? I don't think so. [View all]Azathoth
(4,603 posts)No, it doesn't make sense to look only at the "resolved" column.
Resolved cases are cases that have either been admitted to the hospital and then discharged, or otherwise followed up until a definite resolution is reached. The vast bulk of infections are people who have either not been diagnosed at all, or have been diagnosed and quarantined but not necessarily followed up on in a timely manner.
It's true that the very low mortality rate outside of Wuhan may grow because it may take time for those infections to progress to death, but that is balanced out by the fact that resolved cases at the epicenter likely reflect an inflated mortality rate because 1) almost certainly the total number of infections there is being undercounted 2) Wuhan's medical infrastructure is being stressed past capacity right now and 3) the Chinese government's draconian quarantine measures in Wuhan inadvertently may be producing worse outcomes for those diagnosed there.
So no, the true death rate is almost certainly not 20%.