The Ukraine as Stalking Horse

[Tommy_Carcetti]

3. *Ukraine.

Also, I think it's a little more complicated than Ukraine as a "stalking horse" or "not Russia."

Putin has long attempted to control both business interests and politics in Ukraine. He has managed to do that only to a varying degree of success.

There are pro-Russian Ukrainian oligarchs who do Moscow's bidding. But there are plenty of regular Ukrainian oligarchs who just do their own bidding. And then you have the general Ukrainian populace, most of whom have no desire to be lorded over by Moscow.

Putin's control over Ukrainian affairs peaked of course with Yanukovych. The citizens saw this--as well as Yanukovych's own inherent corruption--and revolted against this, which ended up with him fleeing to Russia. But this upending also caused Putin to strike back against Ukraine in its weakened state, seizing Crimea and creating hell in the Donbass region.

As you say, it's complicated. Centuries old complicated, actually.

The two countries share a common historical bond, similar--yet not identical--cultures and languages, but vastly different mindsets. Russia is still imperial minded, whereas most Ukrainians simply want to be left alone.