The real reason Manafort willing to serve 24 years...

[pbmus]

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1067299686099238913.html

Thread) About Manafort

My guess: He's not reckless, and he isn't stupid enough to think a pardon will save him.

So why can't he tell the truth?

I think it's helpful to remember a few things about the nature of the criminal enterprise.

1/ Trump and Manafort are not the top of the international criminal enterprise.

In a 1-27-2011 lecture—given while Mueller was FBI director—he talked about a new kind of organized crime threatening the US.

Today’s mobsters have gone international.
The Evolving Organized Crime Threat
Citizens Crime Commission of New York
https://archives.fbi.gov/archives/news/speeches/the-evolving-organized-crime-threat
2/ They're “iron triangles” consisting of (1) organized criminals (2) corrupt government official, and (3) business leaders.

And they pose a signifiant security threat.

They're also cornering the international market on natural gas & oil (which explains climate change denial).
3/ They infiltrate US businesses, and try to manipulate people at the highest levels of government.

Motivated by greed, they sell to the highest bidder and will stop at nothing to make money.
4/ Mueller explained that by 2011, the FBI was developing a long-term strategy for dismantling these enterprises, including Threat Focus Cells to target mobsters like Semion Mogilevich—who he said was on the FBI's Ten Most Wanted list.
4/ Mogilevich— “Russia’s top crime boss”—has ties to Trump Tower.👇

Mogilevich’s operative David Bogatin bought 5 condos in Trump Tower for $6 million cash. 1,300 Trump-branded condos were sold in all cash purchases to anonymous shell companies.
Understanding Trump vs. Bruce Ohr: Think Russia’s top crime boss, Semion Mogilevich
Amidst President Donald Trump’s ongoing threats to revoke security clearances from various critics, perhaps the most mysterious person on his enemy
https://www.justsecurity.org/60528/understanding-pres-trump-vs-bruce-ohr-russias-top-crime-boss-semion-mogilevich/
5/ Mogilevich got rich stealing from Russians and scamming Americans. He's also one of Russia's most powerful oligarchs.

Russian oligarchs, don't forget, are Manafort's buddies and clients.

From Manafort's guilty plea:
Document: Superseding Criminal Information Against Paul Manafort
The special counsel's office has filed a superseding criminal information in the case against Paul Manafort. The document is available here and below. The plea agreement and statement of offense are …
https://www.lawfareblog.com/document-superseding-criminal-information-against-paul-manafort
6/ Manafort conspired with Gates and Konstantin Kilimnik to act (and acted) as an agent of the Government of Ukraine, the Party of Regions—the pro-Putin party—between at least 2006 and 2015.

Kilimnik is another Russian oligarch. Manafort's buddy.
7/ We all know what happens to people who rat on Russian oligarchs—and do their families. I never believed Manafort, who cares about his family, was really going to rat on his Russian buddies.

But Mueller is confident Manafort is lying, which means Mueller knows the truth.
8/ And Mueller is after something bigger (and more dangerous) than either Manafort or Trump.