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mythology

(9,527 posts)
48. If you actually understood exit polls are conducted differently here, you'd understand
Sat Mar 10, 2018, 02:47 PM
Mar 2018

how absurd the notion of this claim is. Also you have the problem that the national polls were more accurate than in 2012.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit/

1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.

4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.


https://www.thenation.com/article/reminder-exit-poll-conspiracy-theories-are-totally-baseless/

Here’s how exit polling works: In most states, Edison conducts phone interviews before Election Day to capture absentee and early voting. Then, on Election Day, they send staff to between 15 and 50 polling places per state, and they ask between 500 and 3,000 voters to fill out questionnaires indicating which candidate they voted for and what issues are important to them. In order to account for those voters who refuse to fill out a questionnaire, exit pollsters have to adjust their survey data. Lenski says that about 50–60 percent refuse to participate. When someone says no, the pollster notes the person’s rough age, race, and gender. They then weight their data to match the population that voted at that location.

Some media outlets post preliminary data when the polls close—that’s the supposedly raw data that, according to the conspiracy-minded, reveal the fraud. But those data have already been merged with the results of those telephone interviews, and they have already been adjusted throughout the day (the interviewers send in their survey results in three waves). Unadjusted data are never released. (If you Google “exit polls adjusted New York,” you’ll get back dozens of posts claiming that the “unadjusted exit polls” varied significantly from the final results. All of those posts are dead wrong, as none of their authors have any idea what the unadjusted data looked like.)


The actual facts are easy to find. I don't get the desire to embrace some utterly unsubstantiated nonsensical conspiracy theory. How is this claim (offered with absolutely zero evidence) any different than Republicans claiming in person voter fraud is a thing?

I've ALWAYS thought that Brainstormy Mar 2018 #1
totally agree AlexSFCA Mar 2018 #56
Those boxes that were found to be tampered with after Stein started a re-count Maraya1969 Mar 2018 #68
duh. Let's get real before November. Please? n/t librechik Mar 2018 #2
Thats my thinking as well. Are we just going to wring our hands onecaliberal Mar 2018 #5
Where does that link lead? It displays as an abbreviated link for me without a discernible domain. LonePirate Mar 2018 #3
Daily Kos Qutzupalotl Mar 2018 #12
Sure, world wide wally Mar 2018 #4
Apparently Putin is blaming the Russian Jews for the messing with Iliyah Mar 2018 #29
By extension dotard is likely illegitimate. Felt good to write that. Enoki33 Mar 2018 #6
No question that dump is NOT the duly elected potus. onecaliberal Mar 2018 #7
Yep. Game changer in at least four states. dchill Mar 2018 #8
I believe this as well pandr32 Mar 2018 #13
Also what raw exit poll data showed. triron Mar 2018 #20
Which is why we can't use exit polls anymore. dchill Mar 2018 #21
Wait! Why can't we use them? nt tomp Mar 2018 #40
If you actually understood exit polls are conducted differently here, you'd understand mythology Mar 2018 #48
well, they used to be accurate before 2000. just saying... nt TheFrenchRazor Mar 2018 #63
yep... they were. liberalla Mar 2018 #74
CALLED cilla4progress Mar 2018 #9
Of course votes were altered! Why else would Russia invest so much money and procon Mar 2018 #10
Exactly! onecaliberal Mar 2018 #11
Adding to that that Putin wants the Arctic oil lunatica Mar 2018 #15
and the kook brothers not fooled Mar 2018 #53
You confuse "voting systems" and "balloting systems." Igel Mar 2018 #17
Nah, They just wanted to take some pictures / sarcasm uponit7771 Mar 2018 #54
They did it just to prove they could, and then stopped with that! No tampering or altering Amaryllis Mar 2018 #80
KGOP & russian гангстерs colluded to destroy American democracy Achilleaze Mar 2018 #14
Ruskies didn't have to change votes. There were plenty of white wing racists and Democratic Hoyt Mar 2018 #16
Here's why we lost -- RandomAccess Mar 2018 #25
Thanks. Good information. onecaliberal Mar 2018 #34
You're most welcome RandomAccess Mar 2018 #36
thanks; people tend to ignore purged voters Hermit-The-Prog Mar 2018 #49
Probably big part of the reason. triron Mar 2018 #59
Not why we lost..but part of why we lost. A piece in the puzzle lunamagica Mar 2018 #32
Yes, many moving parts Cha Mar 2018 #50
I beleive you are describing Russian "bots" Matt_R Mar 2018 #72
This is the only way for them to "win" a national election. dchill Mar 2018 #18
Maybe...but I'm not convinced ewagner Mar 2018 #19
Did you go to the link and read? onecaliberal Mar 2018 #22
How do those "readers" submit data to central tabulating? RandomAccess Mar 2018 #30
The machine tallies ewagner Mar 2018 #88
No, VotER Fraud isn't an issue anywhere but RandomAccess Mar 2018 #90
It wouldnt surprise me, but... bearsfootball516 Mar 2018 #23
sky blue. water wet. duh NRaleighLiberal Mar 2018 #24
I have been saying from the very beginning watoos Mar 2018 #26
Thousands of Detroit ballots were suddently missing and not counted Iliyah Mar 2018 #27
That is incorrect MichMan Mar 2018 #37
not exactly questionseverything Mar 2018 #55
Write in votes dont count MichMan Mar 2018 #58
we will never know bacause the powers that be won't let WE THE PEOPLE questionseverything Mar 2018 #62
Have been saying this from day one. Eliot Rosewater Mar 2018 #28
I have never doubted it happened. The election was stolen lunamagica Mar 2018 #31
It was stolen via propaganda and 'hacking minds' sharedvalues Mar 2018 #46
ive always thought tally's were reversed...many of the numbers were backwards than predicted.. samnsara Mar 2018 #33
The voting machines and the tabulators have electronic "back doors" programed and hard wired... Botany Mar 2018 #35
The "red shift" is relative to raw exit polls. triron Mar 2018 #67
Uh, No Cheviteau Mar 2018 #38
Elections need to be transparent. There should never be a situation where you cannot diva77 Mar 2018 #44
yep; it's amazing how many "faith-based voters" we have here. nt TheFrenchRazor Mar 2018 #64
I'm not an IT guy, but I do know several at my job, and they all say hacking voting machines and Still In Wisconsin Mar 2018 #39
Ive read the same. My husband was an IT Director onecaliberal Mar 2018 #41
Or, you could live in Wisconsin, where the Waukesha County Clerk "finds" 1300 votes on her laptop Still In Wisconsin Mar 2018 #47
Computerized voting machines, optiscans, central tabulators etc have never met burden of proof diva77 Mar 2018 #42
Headline is distorting. And Haseltine was NOT Associate Director of National Intelligence sharedvalues Mar 2018 #43
OK, I'm skeptical of this article. sharedvalues Mar 2018 #45
The irony of people defending the vote, the machines and by default republicans onecaliberal Mar 2018 #51
Blaming it on "stolen" votes is a sure way to lose next time when the white wingers and Democratic Hoyt Mar 2018 #57
We already know they steal the vote by suppressing onecaliberal Mar 2018 #65
No question about Gerrymandering, swiftboating, etc. But we still overcome that when we get out the Hoyt Mar 2018 #66
Can you correct the post? Not Dir of Natl Intel american_ideals Mar 2018 #78
Yes! Propaganda and voter registration issues we know about american_ideals Mar 2018 #76
Our Only Chance Might Be If Mueller Knows & Is Following Tangent SoCalMusicLover Mar 2018 #52
THIS is why you dont speculate idly american_ideals Mar 2018 #79
If The Democrats Really Care About My Vote SoCalMusicLover Mar 2018 #89
If we care about the country, we VOTE. And we vote DEM. Every time. american_ideals Mar 2018 #91
Something we've known since 2000. aikoaiko Mar 2018 #60
no sh*t. nt TheFrenchRazor Mar 2018 #61
Been sayin' this all along. Check exit polls (MO, WI, NC, PA.MI, FL and more). joanbarnes Mar 2018 #69
No way! They broke into voting machines to NOT change votes! Iggo Mar 2018 #70
NO KIDDIN"? You DON'T say... I KNEW that SOMETHING had happened on Election night The_REAL_Ecumenist Mar 2018 #71
I, also have always thought votes were tampered with blueinredohio Mar 2018 #73
As a former IT professional LittleGirl Mar 2018 #75
Ugh. Sketchy source. Bad article. american_ideals Mar 2018 #77
kick for visibility triron Mar 2018 #81
We should be reflecting on the fact that we've lost our democracy jimlup Mar 2018 #82
Repeating the lead thread, it is entirely possible that they tampered with the final count. leanforward Mar 2018 #83
Interesting court testimony from computer programmer on election hacking triron Mar 2018 #84
knr triron Mar 2018 #85
K&R betsuni Mar 2018 #86
Computer experts at Rice University and elsewhere worked with the Travis summer_in_TX Mar 2018 #87
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