January 8, 2020

YouGov: Biden 27%, Warren 22%, Sanders 20%, Buttigieg 7%, Bloomberg 3%

Delta over (1 Week/2weeks)

Biden 27% (-2/-2), Warren 22%(+4/+3), Sanders 20%(+2/+3), Buttigieg 7%(-1/-), Bloomberg 3%(-/-1)

First competitive poll for Warren in a month, although YouGov is the "Morning Consult" of polls for Warren.

538 Average as of Jan 08

Biden 27.5%
Sanders 18.2%
Warren 15.6%
Buttigieg 7.2%
Bloomberg 5.2
Yang 3.4%
Klobuchar 3.2%

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-primary-d/national/

January 8, 2020

I'm thinking Sanders going negative on social media will backfire.

Unlike 2016, a competitor or two will call him out during the debates. It would be better to target Bloomberg IMHO.

January 8, 2020

Iran avoided casualties by design. Gave heads up to Iraqi PM.

michael safi
?@safimichael

Iraqi PM saying he was given heads up about the Iranian attack and passed it to US troops - adding to sense this morning’s attacks were a piece of elaborate theatre
https://twitter.com/safimichael/status/1214866094948831233

January 8, 2020

trump tweets "All is well! Missiles launched from Iran at two military bases located in Iraq."

'All is well' Trump tweets after Iran hits Iraq bases housing US troops

President Trump late Tuesday said "all is well" after Iran fired missiles at two military bases in Iraq that house U.S. troops and coalition personnel, adding that he would make a statement Wednesday morning on the attacks.

"Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!" Trump tweeted.

"We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning," he added.

Early reports indicated that there were no U.S. casualties in the missile attacks, though that could change pending the final assessment.

https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/477265-all-is-well-trump-tweets-after-iran-hits-iraq-base-housing-us-troops
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1214739853025394693

January 8, 2020

'All is well' Trump tweets after Iran hits Iraq bases housing US troops

Source: The Hill

President Trump late Tuesday said "all is well" after Iran fired missiles at two military bases in Iraq that house U.S. troops and coalition personnel, adding that he would make a statement Wednesday morning on the attacks.

"Assessment of casualties & damages taking place now. So far, so good!" Trump tweeted.

"We have the most powerful and well equipped military anywhere in the world, by far! I will be making a statement tomorrow morning," he added.

Early reports indicated that there were no U.S. casualties in the missile attacks, though that could change pending the final assessment.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/administration/477265-all-is-well-trump-tweets-after-iran-hits-iraq-base-housing-us-troops

January 8, 2020

Elizabeth Warren on Iran missile strikes

Elizabeth Warren, speaking at the Kings Theater, Brooklyn.

Within the last hour, the Iranian Government has announced that it has sent missiles to attack our military bases in Iraq. My three brothers all served in the military. At this moment, my heart and my prayers are with our military and with their families, in Iraq and all around the word. But this is a reminder why need to deescalate tension in the Middle East. The American people do not want a war with Iran.

January 8, 2020

Hello Brooklyn : Julian Castro / Elizabeth Warren in Brooklyn

Hello Brooklyn

I am so happy to be here with you tonight, but we have to start but we have to start on a very sober note ... Within the last hour, the Iranian Government has announced that it has sent missiles to attack our military bases in Iraq. My three brothers all served in the military. At this moment, my heart and my prayers are with our military and with their families, in Iraq and all around the word. But this is a reminder why need to deescalate tension in the Middle East. The American people do not want a war with Iran.

January 7, 2020

538: Trump Is The Most Unpopular President Since Ford To Run For Reelection

Trump Is The Most Unpopular President Since Ford To Run For Reelection

Now that the 2020 election has gone from “next year” to “this year,” it’s worth taking a step back and asking a question that we first posed in early 2017: How popular is Donald Trump? After all, a president’s job approval rating can be predictive of his reelection chances, especially as November draws closer.

On Jan. 1, 42.6 percent of Americans approved of President Trump’s job performance, according to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential approval tracker (52.9 percent disapproved). That’s a pretty typical number for Trump (although it’s worth noting that, since Jan. 1, the U.S. and Iran have taken actions that could shake Trump’s approval rating loose from that anchor), but ominously for the president, that’s the second-lowest FiveThirtyEight average approval rating of any recent president on the first day of their reelection year. Only Gerald Ford (39.3 percent on Jan. 1, 1976) was less popular — and, of course, Ford lost that campaign to Jimmy Carter.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/trump-is-the-most-unpopular-president-since-ford-to-run-for-reelection/



Fox News Poll Trump's aggregate approval masks strong disapproval

January 7, 2020

HarrisX: Trump approval reaches 90% all time high with Republicans (pre Suleimani)

https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/476978-trump-support-among-republicans-reaches-all-time-high-in-poll

HarrisX: Bloomberg rises to third place
https://thehill.com/hilltv/rising/476689-bloomberg-rises-to-third-place-alongside-warren-in-national-poll

"All that bootlicking on Fox News finally paid off for Mark Penn. He’s finally a White House insider again" -David Axelrod
https://www.thedailybeast.com/mark-penn-what-the-dollarand-were-you-doing-in-donald-trumps-white-house

January 7, 2020

Opinion: Iran has brought down an American president before.

Iran has brought down an American president before

Iran has broken an American president before. In 1979, Iranians under the aegis of the supreme leader Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini stormed the US embassy in Tehran, taking 52 diplomats hostage.

All of president Jimmy Carter’s efforts to free the hostages failed, including a rescue mission in April 1980, when some of the aircrew were killed and the desert aircraft wreckage was a stain on the US military. The US's humiliation in Iran was a major factor in Carter’s defeat that November.

Iran deliberately waited until Ronald Reagan was sworn in as the new president on January 20, 1981, with Carter truly gone, to free the hostages after 444 days in captivity.

(snip) (trump) acted against Iran one month before the first Democratic presidential primary in Iowa. The Democrats, from Bernie Sanders on the left to Joe Biden on the right, want to capitalise on fears among many of a president who acts recklessly, impulsively and with no ability to execute a strategic foreign policy.

Their strong sense is of an American people who do not want to go to war with Iran, and that Trump’s bringing American closer to war with Iran is both wrong and decidedly unpopular. Their message: restore sanity, defeat Trump.

Iran’s retaliation, when it comes – and it will, and it will be designed in part to destroy Trump at home.

https://www.smh.com.au/national/iran-has-brought-down-an-american-president-before-20200106-p53p42.html

Iran went out of their way to hurt Carter politically. They will be far more determined to humiliate this 'president'.