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The_jackalope

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Member since: Sun Jun 4, 2017, 05:46 PM
Number of posts: 1,660

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The Wuhan coronavirus (the Wuhan Flu sounds catchy) infection curve

From 278 infections on January 20 to 7700 yesterday (as reported by Johns Hopkins at https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6), the infection rate increase has been virtually constant at 45% per day.

The correlation of the calculated curve with the actual observations using either the CORREL or PEARSON function in Excel is 0.9933

If nothing interrupts the contagion (i.e the curve holds its 45%/day increase) there would be about one million infections by February 11 - less than two weeks from now.
Posted by The_jackalope | Thu Jan 30, 2020, 03:31 PM (6 replies)
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