clutterbox1830
clutterbox1830's JournalMight as well as practically call NC to Biden already
Not to sound overconfident, but with the latest NC early voting numbers, I find it really hard for Trump to win NC.
All of the Democratic counties have turned out in record numbers.
As of 11/2, WAKE county (home to Raleigh) is reporting 68.2% of all registered voters in that county have voted. This is the biggest county in NC and this total accounts for 540,006 votes before election day! This is higher turnout (in both voters and %) than the total votes made in 2016 for this county. This county went +20.6 to Clinton in 2016.
In fact, most of the other democratic counties are reporting record high turnouts in 2020.
COUNTY NAME | % of register voters who already voted | Total Votes | 2016 differential with Clinton v Trump
CHATHAM | 75.2% | 43,381 | +10.1 Clinton
WAKE | 68.2% | 540,006 | +20.6 Clinton
BUNCOMBE | 68.1% | 140,413 | +14.6 Clinton
ORANGE | 67.7% | 75,704 | +51.2 Clinton
DURHAM | 67.2% | 163,251 | +60.4 Clinton
MECKLENBURG (Charlotte) | 62.1% | 490,115 | +29.9 Clinton
GUILFORD | 61.9% | 236,483 | +30.1 Clinton
FORSYTH | 61.1% | 165,541 | +10.5 Clinton
We could suspect that these totals to go up at least by ~8% on election day. There are a number of Democratic counties that I didn't list. NC "Republican counties" are not turning out as much in comparison which is different from outer battleground states.
Unless all Republican counties can turnout above 75%, I don't see how Trump can make up this total.
Are we expecting DU to go down tomorrow?
As some of you might recall on election day in 2016, DU was hit with multiple cyberattack (I assume DDOS attacks) that day and made the site inoperable for most users. I assume DU IT team is working hard to prevent any reoccurrence, however, nothing is ever guarantee so we might expect the same old shenanigains. Be prepared if this site goes down tomorrow.
Concern about PA
I'm not concern about PA polling, Joe is doing fine there.
However, I am concern about the mail in ballot returns.
According to https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/PA.html
Democrats requested 1,825,586 ballot and so far return 847,350, so a 46%
My main concern is most of the ballots unaccounted for are in the Philly suburb area.
As of 10/21,
Bucks county return just 7.3% ballots.
Delaware county return just 14% ballots.
Montgomery county return just 29.9% ballots.
These are some of the lowest throughout the state and are democratic counties that Biden needs to win.
Are these returns just slow to tabulate or are voters not receiving and/or returning their ballots?
If you request an absentee or mail-in ballot, that request will be reflected in the records of your local polling location. If you change your mind or misplace the ballot and decide to vote in person, you will be required to vote with a provisional ballot. Within 7 days after the election, the County Election Office will decide whether you were eligible to vote at the election district where you voted the provisional ballot. If you were eligible, they will count your provisional ballot.... and if the voting differential is close enough to matter.
In short, if you don't return your mail in ballot, your vote may not count!
In Addition, history has slow, voting via provisional ballot slows poll workers time and possibly increase voters wait times at those locations on election day. There could be a limit on provisional ballots too.
Please relieve me from my concern.
Trump is blaming Fauci now, says he 'made a lot of mistakes'
https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/health/2020/07/10/covid-19-coronavirus-new-mexico-parks-nevada-bars-starbucks-masks/5411146002/Fauci told the Financial Times he was "sure" his messages were sent to the president even though the two have not been in close contact in the past several weeks.
The comments from the Trump administration's director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases came as Trump has been critical of Fauci and spoken openly about issues on which they disagree.
In a Thursday interview with Fox News' Sean Hannity, Trump said Fauci had "made a lot of mistakes" but called him a "nice man." Trump also said "most cases" of coronavirus would "automatically cure. They automatically get better."
Fauci also in the FT interview said Trump was incorrect in claiming 99% of coronavirus cases were "harmless" and may have conflated some statistics.
Arizona reports record highs of 4,878 new coronavirus cases, 88 deaths (7/1)
https://ktar.com/story/3355397/arizona-reports-record-highs-of-4878-new-coronavirus-cases-88-deaths/
PHOENIX — The Arizona health department reported single-day records of 4,878 new coronavirus cases and 88 deaths Wednesday morning.
That brings the state’s documented totals to 84,092 COVID-19 cases and 1,720 fatalities.
The previous single-day highs were 4,682 on Tuesday and 79 deaths from June 24. However, both of those figures were inflated because they included older data that hadn’t previously been accounted for in the stat reports. Wednesday’s report came with no such caveat.
The positive percentage of PCR tests, which detect active infections, continues to soar.
There have been more than 549,000 PCR tests given in Arizona, including 17,227 added to the total Wednesday. Of the total, 12.4% have come back positive as of Wednesday. The positive rate was 12% a day earlier and just 6.7% on the last day of May.
The weekly positive rate for PCR tests has risen every week since the week starting May 10, when it was 5%.
Of the PCR samples collected last week that have been processed, a pandemic-high 20% have come back positive. So far this week, that figure is 24%.
ICU bed usage reached a pandemic-high of 89% in Arizona on Tuesday, according to the latest state data, with the available supply down to a low point of 187 beds.
Overall inpatient bed usage was at 85%, 1 percentage point below the pandemic high last seen June 26.
Nurses, doctors feel strain as virus races through Arizona
https://www.ksat.com/news/national/2020/06/27/nurses-doctors-feel-strain-as-virus-races-through-arizona/PHOENIX – They saw the ominous photos: Crowded hospitals, exhausted nurses, bodies piling up in morgues. It was far away, in New York, northern Italy and other distant places.
Now, after three months of anxiously waiting and preparing, Arizona nurses and doctors are on the front lines as the coronavirus rips through the state, making it one of the world’s hot spots. The trickle of a few virus patients in March became a steady stream two weeks after Arizona Gov. Doug Ducey ended a stay-home order in mid-May and allowed most businesses to reopen, and is now a scourge with no end in sight.
An intensive care nurse in metro Phoenix nurse said she cries when she thinks about all the people who have died from the virus in her hospital, or the times she clutched a frightened patient’s hands during an intubation. Medical staff describe crowded emergency rooms where patients are put on ventilators waiting for a spot in the intensive care unit to open up. There are tearful goodbyes through a patio window in Tucson.
...
“This is not a sprint, this is a marathon. In fact it’s an ultra-marathon,” Goldberg said.
Death is ever-present in ICUs, but with virus patients, it is even more common, and often grueling and drawn out.
Patients on ventilators are put in what is essentially a medically-induced state of suspended animation as machines breathe for their virus-ravaged lungs. They’re hooked up to multiple IVs and drains, with a ventilator tube down their throats. They can stay in the ICU for weeks or months.
Nurses walk into their units for 12-hour shifts, gear up in gowns, respirators, gloves and goggles and enter an other-worldly setting. Patients are cut off from their families, and often all reality. They’re frequently flipped onto their stomachs for hours at a time, a move called proning that has become a go-to for helping those patients breathe but is a grueling task that can take six to eight nurses, respiratory therapists and doctors to accomplish.
For younger nurses, some of the hardest deaths are those of young, previously healthy patients, including a woman less than 25 years old who died in Scottsdale.
She deteriorated rapidly, said Caroline Maloney, a nurse at HonorHealth’s Scottsdale Osborn Medical Center with 28 years’ experience working in ICUs. “And it was very emotional," she said. “I know one nurse in particular couldn’t even talk about it.
“They’re seeing this first-hand, and its unnerving for them to see when their peers are in a hospital bed and they have to take care of them,” Maloney said.
...
Families of virus patients generally aren’t allowed bedside visits, leaving it to caregivers to arrange phone calls and FaceTime links via tablet computers. The hospital in Tucson is a rare case where families can visit their loved ones — at least through a window. That’s because it is an older facility and primarily one-story, with all its ICU rooms on the ground level. Each has a small patio with windows.
It's where Muzzy often leads family members as they say goodbye to their loved one after making the decision to end care.
“I say it’s physically, emotionally, psychologically, spiritually draining,” she said. “Our nurses, the ones that do the 12½ hour shifts, they endure this day in and day out. They are amazing. They’re very strong.”
Breaking (6/27): Florida reports another pandemic record with 9,585 new coronavirus cases!
https://www.wftv.com/news/local/florida-reports-record-shattering-9500-new-cases-covid-19-statewide-cases-surpass-130k/44HPJ5VFZBH5XIQZG4PN6R4G64/ORLANDO, Fla. — Florida health officials reported another record-shattering day of cases with more than 9,500 new cases of COVID-19 on Saturday, surpassing the previous record set Friday.
The state reported 9,585 new COVID-19 cases and 24 coronavirus-related deaths.
The new cases bring the total in Florida up to 132,545 with 3,390 deaths.
Five coronavirus-related deaths were reported in Polk County and one coronavirus-related death was reported in Volusia County.
See a county-by-county breakdown of cases below, and click here for an interactive map of cases statewide:
https://www.orlandosentinel.com/coronavirus/os-ne-florida-coronavirus-saturday-june-27-20200627-wlaxcvv6nvcennambcrod4qule-story.html
The state has now registered 132,545 positive cases to date. The previous record for a single-day increase of 8,942 cases was reported Friday, followed by 5,508 cases reported Wednesday.
It has also seen 14,136 hospitalizations, up 149 from Friday’s report.
24 new deaths were also reported Saturday, bringing the state toll to 3,390. That includes six more in Central Florida: five in Polk County, and one in Volusia.
The Department of Health now says 132,545 people have tested positive for COVID-19 since the pandemic began.
At least 3,489 people have died from a virus-related illness in Florida, including 99 from outside the state.
The statewide numbers Saturday broke the previous record of 8,942 set Friday.
South Florida
In South Florida, the hardest-hit area in the state:
Broward County: 726 new cases were reported Saturday, bringing the total to 14,046 to date. A total of 404 people have died, one more since Friday.
Palm Beach County: 430 new cases were reported, bringing the total to 12,928. A total of 505 people have died, two more since Fridaay.
Miami-Dade County: Florida’s hot spot saw 1,366 new cases, bringing the total to 31,562. A total of 962 people have died, which is one more than Friday. Miami-Dade has 13% of the state’s population but 23.8% of the coronavirus cases and 27.6% of the deaths.
OH: Biden - 46%, Trump - 45%
https://poll.qu.edu/images/polling/oh/oh06242020_okuy92.pdf1,139 RV ±2.9%
4 YR COLL DEG
Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom Yes No
Biden 46% 5% 93% 40% 38% 53% 57% 35%
Trump 45% 92% 3% 44% 54 37% 36% 56%
Still very close.
New York, New Jersey, Connecticut to quarantine visitors from states with high coronavirus infection
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-new-york/new-york-new-jersey-connecticut-to-quarantine-visitors-from-states-with-high-coronavirus-infections-idUSKBN23V2FBNEW YORK (Reuters) - The governors of New York, New Jersey and Connecticut announced on Wednesday that visitors from states with high coronavirus infection rates must self-quarantine for 14 days on arrival.
Those states are Alabama, Arkansas, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Texas, Utah and Washington, New York Governor Andrew Cuomo told reporters.
“This is a smart thing to do,” New Jersey Governor Phil Murphy said via video at a joint news conference in New York City. “We have taken our people, the three of us from these three states, through hell and back, and the last thing we need to do right now is subject our folks to another round.”
New York was for a time the epicenter of the novel coronavirus outbreak but has since lowered its infection rate after locking down much of its economy.
Florida coronavirus: State adds record over 5,500 cases in single day
https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/florida-coronavirus-state-adds-record-5500-cases/TAMPA, Fla. (WFLA) – Florida hit another grim milestone on Wednesday, adding 5,508 confirmed cases of the novel coronavirus, the highest number of reported cases in a single day, according to the state’s department of health.
The health department’s latest report shows 44 people have died since Tuesday morning. The death toll stands at 3,281.
A total of 13,574 people have been hospitalized due to complications from COVID-19 with health officials reporting an additional 256 hospitalizations Wednesday.
The percent positivity for new cases—the number of people who tested positive for the first time divided by all the people tested that day—also increased, according to Wednesday’s report, and is now at 15.91%. The percent of positive results ranged from 5% to 18% over the past 2 weeks and was 18% yesterday, according to the report.
The health department said 36,339 people were tested on Tuesday.
Florida is also tracking the median age of cases each day. Tuesday’s median age was 33. Tampa Bay area counties have reported an upward trend in young adults testing positive for the virus. Gov. DeSantis addressed that trend during a news conference on Tuesday.
“What we’ve seen, particularly over the last week, is a real explosion in new cases among our younger demographics,” he said. “When we started this in March, the median age of people who tested positive was – I think – 65. As the testing ramped up, that went into the 50s. But it was pretty much in the 50s for most of the time and then just recently has really plunged.”
According to the state’s report, Floridians in the 25 – 34 age range account for the largest percentage of cases. A total of 20,092 people in that age group have tested positive, 19% of the state’s total. Of those cases, 803 people have been hospitalized and 18 have died.
FYI. 18.43% test cases came back positive yesterday.
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