factfinder_77
factfinder_77's JournalSanders 18-24 year olds supporters were only 10 to 18 years when Obama became President.
Nate Silver 2008: Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls - from Mark Bluemthnal
http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/ten-reasons-why-you-should-ignore-exit/
Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Bluemthnal’s outstanding Exit Poll FAQ. For the long version, see over there.
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you’ll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year’s primaries. They overstated Barack Obama’s performance by an average of about 7 points.
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample — essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place — in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
5. Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before election day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore’s share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By “late” voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
8. “Leaked” exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from “first-wave” exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Gergahty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics — will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? — the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
10. You’ll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they’re worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same
Sanders Adviser Says Campaign May Have To 'Reevaluate' After Tuesday
On Tuesday, five more states hold primaries, and polling suggests Clinton is in for another good night. When asked if there would come a point when Sanders tones down his criticisms of the front-runner, as Clinton did late in the 2008 race, Sanders senior campaign adviser Tad Devine said he'd see what happens on Tuesday.
"If we think we've made enough progress, then we'll keep on the path that we're on," Devine said. "If we think we have to, you know, take a different way or reevaluate, you know, we'll do it then. But right now, we think the best path beyond is the one we laid out months ago."
http://www.npr.org/2016/04/23/475326726/sanders-adviser-says-campaign-may-have-to-reevaluate-after-tuesday
Fox California poll Scam: Sanders Hispanic vote went from - 23 % to + 19 % in 3 days.
In the CBS News/YouGov poll from 4/13 - 4/15 Clinton is leading +12 % on Sanders
In the Fox poll from 4/18 - 4/21 Clinton is only leading Sanders with + 2 %.
But the numbers does not match up:
The CBS poll has Clinton leading the Hispanic vote 57 % to Sanders 34 %. That is + 23 %
The Fox News poll has Sanders leading the Hispanic vote with 19 %
.
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2016/04/23/fox-news-poll-trump-leads-in-california-clinton-sanders-in-close-race.html
https://www.scribd.com/doc/309313864/CBS-News-2016-Battleground-Tracker-California-April-17-2016
Insiders to Bernie: Don’t take the fight to Philly
'The primary is over. There is no path, and there is no math,' says a Florida Democrat.
Democrats have a message for Bernie Sanders: Shut it down before the July national convention in Philadelphia.
That’s according to The POLITICO Caucus — a panel of activists, strategists and operatives in 10 key battleground states — who worried a protracted post-primary clash for the nomination could hurt Hillary Clinton, the party’s likely nominee, in their states in the general election.
Read more:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/04/insiders-to-bernie-dont-take-the-fight-to-philly-222291#ixzz46Y4GCC9g
Haiti Mining : Anti Hillary GOP hit piece, here is the facts
I gues you have read the following post: http://www.democraticunderground.com/12511767556
it basically insinuates that Clinton’s brother, Tony Rodham, who sat on the board of a self-described mining company received one of only two “gold exploitation permits” from the Haitian government—the first issued in over 50 years, because of Clintons state depertment job.
So what is the facts ?
Who Will Benefit from Haiti's Gold Rush? Haitian Government Embraces U.S., Canadian Mining Firms
After years of rumors that mining companies were exploring in Haiti, Canadian and U.S. corporations now confirm they have permits to mine gold in more than 1,000 square miles in northern Haiti. Haiti’s new prime minister says the estimated $20 billion worth of minerals in Haiti’s hills could help liberate it from dependency on foreign aid and rebuild from the devastating 2010 earthquake
http://www.democracynow.org/2012/5/31/who_will_benefit_from_haitis_gold
VCS Mining LLC (United States), subsidiary Delta Société Minière S.A were issued one (1) exploitation permit in 2012. The permit is situated at Morne Bossa (bordering the Communes of Milot/Quartier Morin) (25 km2 ).
The relevant conventinon for this permit is Citadelle (signed with government in 1997 and ratified by Council of Ministers in 2005.
Two other mining permits in Haiti [gold and copper] were awarded to the Haitian society "Société Minière du Nord-Est S.A" (SOMINE S.A) [company partner of Majescor Resources Inc. (Majescor) and its wholly owned subsidiary SIMACT Alliance Copper-Gold Inc. (SACG)]
http://chrgj.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/12/haiti_2.pdf
Haiti - Economy : Gold mining exploitation permit - Morne Bossa
is the first permit of their kind issued in over 50 years. "We would like to thank President Martelly, Prime Minister Lamothe, and especially the Director general of the Bureau of Mines, Mr. Remarais, for their cooperation, vision and commitment to the development of Haiti’s natural resource base," commented VCS CEO Angelo Viard. "The government’s commitment to responsible development of the country’s vast natural resource base will be a major contributor to economic development, employment, and the welfare of the Haitian people."
Under Haitian mining law, an Exploitation Permit is valid for five years, and renewable up to 25 years. If further resources are discovered within the permitted area, the law allows additional renewals for up to 10 years.
"The first priority of Haitian governmental officials is to ensure the proper framework for sustainable development of these resources, which include environmental protections and the development of the most valuable asset of this nation, its people. We believe our business practices fulfill all official requirements and we look forward to working with national and local officials to create a meaningful impact on the citizens of Haiti through employment, training, and other social benefits. Our plan is to grow, strengthen, and positively impact local communities and surrounding areas," added Mr. Viard.
http://www.haitilibre.com/en/news-7491-haiti-economy-gold-mining-exploitation-permit-morne-bossa.html
The companies have been unable to perform work under such permits due to reasons outside of their control,
The companies have been unable to perform work under such permits due to reasons outside of their control, including, principally: (1) the Senate Resolution calling for a moratorium on mining activity and (2) the government’s efforts to rewrite Haitian mining law.Once the political and legislative issues have been resolved the companies listed in this table should have the
opportunity to continue activities
History of Mining in Haiti
http://vcsmining.com/mining-history.html
The Spanish exploited gold in Haiti in the 15th and 16th centuries. Copper and gold occurrences have been revealed over time, however, it was not until the 20th century that the mining industry began to prosper.
1957 to 1982 — Reynolds Haitian Mines Metals Inc. exploited bauxite in Miragoane at an annual rate of 600,000 tons.
1960 to 1971 — SEDREN S.A. (Canada) exploited copper in Mémé. 1.5 million tons at 2% copper were extracted in a copper skarn.
1970’s — The United Nations performed a study which specified the occurrences of copper and gold.
1980’s — A practicability study was completed on the Douvray property. Deposits measured were determined to be sub-economic given the price of copper.
1995 — St. Genevieve Haiti signs the first Convention Miniere with the Haitian government for mining rights until 2025, which is the only convention ever signed in Haiti.
1990 to 2000 — Mining was put on hold due to political issues.
2005 — Convention Miniere was published in an official legal journal.
2007 — A company by the name of SIMACT, a group of Haitian investors, invested heavily in the project along with the existing companies.
2008 — A company named Alliance Copper Gold, a group of mining professionals, invested in that same project.
2008 — St. Genevieve another company from Canada.
2009 — Eurasian Minerals and Newmont Mining were granted 27 permits in north-east Haiti in addition to the 5 licenses they already owned and existing Newmont permits. They acquired the Grand Bois Land, host to a non-compliant NI43-101 gold resource with development potential and possible copper-gold porphyry system at depth.
2012 - Delta Societe Miniere S.A - Subsidiary of VCS Mining, Inc. received first Mining Exploitation Permits in decades.
2013 - New Mining Law being drafted by the government to replace the old mining law.
Sanders won only 53 % of the 25 to 29-year-olds vote, compared to 81 % of 18-24 year olds
As in previous states this primary season, young people, ages 18-29, as a whole were more likely to support Senator Sanders (65%) than Secretary Clinton (35%). However, unlike in some previous states where Senator Sanders had overwhelming support from all youth under 30, in New York he fared much better with 18 to 24-year-olds, garnering 81% of their votes, than with 25 to 29-year-olds, who gave him just 53% support.
Sanders Free College Tuition Plan Is All a Lie
If someone is offering you something for free, you better read the fine print.Yeah, it’ll be free if the governors of America put in about $28 billion..
And that will never happen.
So basically he has no plan to get the funding of his plan.
All a big fucking lie.
link to sanders plan is here:
http://www.sanders.senate.gov/download/collegeforallsummary/?inline=file
46.90 billion a year for the government
23 billion a year for the states.
---
4 year bill would look like this:
200 billion for the government
69 billion for the states.
Pennsylvania benchmark + writeups released. 55% Clinton 45% Sanders
http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/04/pennsylvania-final-county-benchmarks.html?m=1"
Throughout this primary season and beyond, I will be posting models like this that allow you to follow along with on primary night and not act confused. Watch with purpose. That is the point of all of this, to be able to say with data and analytics to back it up that one candidate or another is doing good or bad, using hard metrics. The use of the model is in knowing whether areas yet to come favor your candidate or disfavor them. You can make predictions on the final margin of victory early, with only 10-15% reporting.
I want to make sure that everyone is clear, this baseline model is becoming predictive, but its true value is not in its state-wide predictions. Polling is not yet adequate enough to get reliable county-by-county predictions that will be accurate to any degree as much as the state polls are. That being said, the demographics can be extrapolated, and the counties and precincts can be modeled. What this does is try to say how a candidate is EXPECTED to do, given the demographics, crosstabs, and previous results this year as well as past contests. If a candidate consistently is beating their baselines, you can bet they will beat their model baseline as well.
All race dot maps are courtesy of Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service, Rector and Visitors of the University of Virginia (Dustin A. Cable, creator).
http://www.benchmarkpolitics.com/2016/04/pennsylvania-final-county-benchmarks.html?m=1
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