Wo! Donald's morphed from orange and blond to fuchsia and metallic gold.

Just saw him at some rally today. It's more startling than the orange! Wish I had a link.

How come the new Reuters/Ipsos hasn't made it to 538 yet?

Here's the post that tells us about the very good Reuters/Ipsos poll

http://www.democraticunderground.com/?com=view_post&forum=1251&pid=2580463

Remember when we despaired because Clinton dropped...

... 3% in 3 days? Well, she's up by 3 points since 11:30 last night at 538. And that's without the PPP polls that someone posted about.

I've figured out that I have another reason to watch 538. It has bigger changes faster. More pellets every time I push the lever.

Could someone tell me why internal polls are the most reliable?

I now know why Hillary plays it close to the vest.

Well, not really. That's a joke.

But I did happen upon an interesting historical anecdote.

A friend of ours taught Hillary in a religion class at Wellesley. When she gave her "Cookies/Tammie Wynette" interview, he wrote her a letter. He said (words to the effect) "Honesty does not require you to say everything you know." She responded with a letter remembering her positive times in his class.

It reminded me of the several example of her very long term correspondences with a whole host of people. They are a real testimony to her humanity.

OK, here's a poll puzzle (Hassan vs Ayotte)

These are probabilities, not averages.

538 Hassan 55%, Ayotte 45%

Upshot Hassan 45%, Ayotte 55%

Can anyone explain this????

NOTE - A couple of respondents seem to think 538 is giving Hillary a worse probability. It's Upshot that does. And I don't know where the 85% is coming from.




Rats. I can't seem to get two different public links from DropBox. Anyway, the other aggregator looks like this, but with the 44 and 45% reversed.

The word "mail" doesn't show up in Google News. Even...

... when I sign in and the sections on Hillary and Just for You show up.

Could it be that the MSM has finally realized that there's no there there? Don't get me wrong. I think it's GREAT that it's not a top story (worthy of Google News's main page) any more.

Is this 2016 or 1966????

I watched the whole Chapel Hill event and heard the former mayor of Chapel Hill talk about a current fight (or recent fight...) to stop assigning classes in public school based on zip code. WHAT?????

Just watched the WHOLE event in Chapel Hill...

... except for the James Taylor part where they muted the sound. Copyright, I guess.

YouTube is a wonderful thing. I actually relished the parade of locals and the dutiful applause. It was like being at a rally, but with sun. (I'm in New England).

Obama is just great. Is there a way to look at trending views on YouTube? I know I can see the number of views for any particular thing, but I'd be interested in comparisons.

Why do you go to 538?

The only thing I've found that 538 has that the Upshot doesn't is a list of new polls as they come in over the course of the day, all gathered in one place.

Anything else I should be looking at?

P.S.
I don't mean to imply a negative opinion about 538's predictions and analyses. I recognize that it's a worst case, with a complex algorithm. I was looking at the layout of the websites and the ease of finding good info.