Jarqui
Jarqui's JournalI think that would be much more accurately restated with:
"Iowa matters to the extent that mainstream media make it matter"
It launched Obama in 2008. It could launch Sanders in 2016.
Media babbling about Iowa results for 20 days could help Sanders immensely. It's very likely to happen. A Dem primary contest is great for ratings/media sales.
"So Hillary has some cushion, Bernie does not"
I think that's probably true. If Bernie wins two states, he's still in the game. Clinton has some sort of a fight left. If Bernie loses all four states, he's toast.
Your own point goes against your position that "No one should care who wins in Iowa".
If Bernie wins, game on. If Bernie loses, probably game over. Both candidates and their respective supporters should care about that.
If she wins, I'll definitely support her and try to help
But her candidacy frightens me that she can win the primary and not the main event because so many do not like her or trust her. I do not trust her so it's harder for me to sell her to others. I can stand behind Bernie with real conviction.
If the Dems do not regain the House or Senate (which seems probable for 2016), then a GOP presidency means many of the gains won in 2008/2012 can be lost and a Supreme Court gets to move further right to consolidate Citizen's United as a way of life - Wall Street owns our elections, etc. A Dem president could protect much of that from happening with a veto and picking Supreme Court justices.
So this is a pretty big deal to me. I'm not doing this to merely hate Hillary. I'm doing it trying to protect the gains made and further the Democratic party progress.
Inevitable?
HIllary is well below the line on that chart.
Everyone is looking at the primary polls and assuming she's strong. She's got lots of Wall Street money and political backers like she did in 2008. She is strong in the primary polls.
But the reality is a lot of people beyond the 25% Dems who find her untrustworthy do not like her. But her favorability is way below 2008
and when you look at the favorability with likely voter polls (supposedly the best)
she's -14.6 - almost Trump awful.
Rubio is currently beating her handily head to head in the state by state contests.
Inevitable? No way.
Biden and Webb were in the original poll
They tried to back fill and adjust numbers with their departures.
One other thing
If Sanders wins Iowa and New Hampshire, Hillary has to spend the first 20 days of the primary answering why she couldn't beat Bernie - not good for her at all. Those two victories could propel Bernie to making Nevada competitive. ...
Before and after Biden withdrawl?
I think there's a difference there. To absorb that and hold his ground is a positive result for Bernie.
I think Sanders and Clinton should both care very much about who wins Iowa
Sanders is way behind in South Carolina: Clinton +47
Sanders is well behind in Nevada: Clinton +26.5
Sanders has limited financial resources compared to Clinton
Sanders is very close in New Hampshire (Gravis poll is probably an outlier as they're not a very reliable outfit)
Sanders is pulling closer in Iowa - within single digits the last two polls two+ months out.
Those four states lead off the primary voting and are the only states voting in February. Those four votes are all the media is going to have to talk about for a month - aside from incoming polls (which will start to trend towards Sanders if he wins two of these states).
If Bernie were to split the states by winning New Hampshire and Iowa, that would be enormous because then there would be this big discussion in the media for a month (free media coverage) about whether Bernie can do what Obama did. The result of that would help to further legitimize his candidacy, in part like it did for Obama, and help him zoom up the polls because folks would recognize that he is capable of beating Hillary. And when the media take the next obvious step to see how he matches up with GOP candidates, right now, he arguably matches up better. The publicity of that would be big because it is something that is currently helping Hillary right now. A bunch don't find her trustworthy but she's currently getting their support because they don't think Bernie can beat the GOP (but the polls suggest otherwise - that he's as capable or better against the GOP because so many independents and Republicans do not trust Hillary/don't like her).
Hillary basically had her boot on Bernie's throat in these polls. if she lets him get up or he manages to get up, she could have real trouble. And it will cost her campaign big money to finish Bernie off.
Because of that, I think Iowa is VERY important.
Nothing shocking but encouraging for Sanders
Quinnipiac had Clinton +11 in October before Biden withdrew.
For Sanders to reduce Clinton to +9 with Quinnipiac while absorbing a majority of Biden supporters moving to Clinton and produce a second poll where he's reduced Clinton's lead from +24 back to single digits, I take it as a positive blip for Sanders.
Its just one poll. Can't claim to read to much into it. But I have to tip my hat to Sanders a bit here.
What's going on?
A second single digit spread poll in Iowa.
By Quinnipiac University. Nate rates them pretty well: B+
I thought some were saying Hillary had this all wrapped up Nov 4th when Hillary was +30 in Iowa.
Looks like the preordained coronation on Wall Street might be delayed.
25 percent of Likely-to-vote Dems in that poll don't think Hillary is trustworthy. (vs 4% for Bernie). Hillary supporters, that is not a good number from the people who know Hillary best.
66% think Hillary has the best chance of winning and is a key reason they're supporting her (looking past the trustworthy issue 25% have with Hillary). Sanders camp needs to bang that drum in the media because Bernie stacks up considerably better than the likely Dems are giving him credit for - in a number of cases better than Hillary in head to head polls because the Republicans and independents have a much worse perception of Hillary's trustworthiness. If they bang on that and Bernie's foreign policy positions, this race will tighten up.
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