February 25, 2016

Polls and Predictions – Democratic Primaries through March 1st

The following are the results of the latest polls (sourc: realclearpolitics.com) and the projections of Nate Silver (source fivethirtyeight.com) for the Democratic primaries scheduled for 2/27/16 (South Carolina) and the twelve primaries scheduled for 3/1/16.

(I think Hillary supporters will be very pleased.)

Link: Polls and Predictions – Democratic Primaries through March 1st

February 24, 2016

Another of my rants on GD-P

This time I was accused of having "Republican talking points" and not understanding the conditions of hard working people.

Don't even pretend to lecture me about working conditions.

My father was the son of a share cropper who, with his brothers and sisters, did the back breaking work cutting sugar cane by hand as a boy. He spelled his father with his job as a night watchman in a sugar refinery so his dad could get some sleep so he could work the next day. He studied by the light of an oil lamp because his family couldn't afford electricity. But he was lucky in that as the youngest he wasn't needed as much in the fields as his older brothers, so he was able to continue his school work and then work his way though college instead of having to quit school in the third and fourth grade like his brothers.

By those standard I had a much easier childhood, but Dad didn't earn much teaching and mom, as was normal in those days, stayed home and cared for the kids. Compared to others we didn't have much. Money was always an issue around out house and the only thing ever heard my parents argue about. I remember more than once dad had just cancelled our health insurance to save money only to have mom need operations soon there after.

I had a real job non-stop since I was fourteen and I am now much older than I want to admit. My first job was a bag boy in a grocery store where I worked my butt off for ten cent tips. But before that starting at age 10 I cut grass and worked in neighbors' yards to earn money for extra curricular actives that my parents couldn't afford. I worked my way through college spending 5 hours a day on my job while other kids were studying and having fun.

So don't lecture me about hard work - I'll bet the majority of you have never done manual labor in your entire lives. I worked my butt off for everything I have now, but I know that I was damn lucky. Lucky to have the parents that stressed a strong education even when I was a small child. Lucky to have a stable environment and I had lucky to the personality to accept the challenges I faced. I see that others have not been so fortunate and face much greater challenges and, unlike some who have made it in life, I constantly want to lend a helping hand to other not so fortunate.

Yes, people earn do less because because others are willing to do the same work which requires no education or special skills for the same wages. Like it or not, that's how the world works. The answer is preparing those people with the training which will allow them to earn more because sooner or later someone is going to invent a machine to do the manual work that they are doing now. That has happened throughout history and it is a trend is going to accelerate.

And yes there needs to be a minimum wage such that those who work at such jobs can at least earn enough to afford the essentials of life. And while I haven't a clue how to do it, that minimum wage needs to be graduated by the cost of living in the area where the work is done. What is a living wage in rural and small town America is not a living wage in large cities.

And yes heath care should be a right, not a privilege, but I don't believe in your so called revolution because it isn't going to happen. I live in a real world where we are not suddenly going to put every health insurance company out of business and force every doctor and health care worker to take half the annual income they earn now. That's like shooting for the moon with a rocket that can only lift 10 feet off of the ground. We need doers running our government who can make tangible gains like getting Medicaid extended to all those who can't afford to buy insurance. We don't need dreamers who will shoot for the stars and fail miserably.

Like or not you and moderate progressives like me want the same things; where we differ is on how to get there. Like a lot of young people today you want instant gratification so you favor a revolution which is almost certain to fail and take the Democratic party down with it. We favor a realistic approach where victories will come much slower and will be hard earned. But I will take small victories over abject failure every time.

February 24, 2016

I am so sick of the Sanders matra - "But she took money for speeches"

Here is what I wrote on the subject in GD-P:

Now let me understand this, if a person is paid to give a speech, are they are automatically indebted to those who paid money to to hear that speech? Is that how it works? Do we give no credit to anyone for having integrity? Barack Obama took large contributions from Wall Street to his PAC's. Are you also accusing President Obama of being on the side of Wall Street during his Presidency? By your logic he was deeply indebted to those who gave his PAC lots of money.

I know you are not, right? Because there is absolutely no evidence of that President Obama favored Wall Street just as there is no evidence that Wall Street money influenced Hillary Clinton.

So let's be honest with each other for a change and let's call this what it is. It is an opportunity for Bernie Sanders to attack Clinton even though he worked with her for eight years in the Senate and he knows where she stands on these issues. But that's politics.

February 23, 2016

Is there any chance that once the primaries are over...

...that unfair hides will be removed from people's records?

February 23, 2016

The List Grows - Real Clear Politics poll results

Attorney in Texas' recent OP - "The list grows! Sanders leads Alaska, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, West Virginia, Vermont, and is..,." which reported a list of state polls. The results shown for some of those polls because they seemed to be different from those which I had scene. So I went to what I consider the the authoritative source for polls that which inspire a high level of confidence (RealClearPolitics.com).

I looked up the same polls reported by the Attorney on the RCP website and found some differences in the reported results. I have copied below the Attorneys reported poll results (in regular font followed by the RealClearPolitics reported polls in bold font (Where applicable the date of the reported poll(s) is provided.) Note there are differences:

Alaska - (Sanders 48%, Clinton 34%) RCP 1/12 Clinton 44 Sanders 41

Colorado - (Sanders 49%, Clinton 43%) RCP: No recent recognized polls

Maine - (Sanders 56%, Clinton 41%) RCP: No recent recognized polls

Massachusetts - (Sanders 47.5%, Clinton 44%) RCP: Same for two recent polls

Minnesota - (Sanders 59% chance, Clinton 41% chance) RCP: 1/20 Clinton 59 Sanders 25

Missouri - (Clinton 47%, Sanders 42%) RCP: No recent recognized polls

Oklahoma - (Clinton 46%, Sanders 44%) RCP: 2 polls 2/9, 2/16: Clinton 43.7 Sanders 29.3

Vermont - (Sanders 83%, Clinton 9%) RCP: 2/16 Sanders 86 Clinton 10

West Virginia - (Sanders 57%, Clinton 29%) RCP: Same for a recent poll

Wisconsin - (Clinton 45%, Sanders 43.5%) RCP: 1/24 Clinton 45 Sanders 43

February 22, 2016

We need to understand the situation of the Sanders supporters going forward

Many of the the Sanders people are starting to realize that that there is no clear path for the Sanders campaign to nomination. Some will come to that realization later.

However, regardless of how and when that happens for various people, it's going to be hard. Many have put all of their eggs in the Bernie basket, and the realization that he can't win is going to be traumatic because they got their hopes up. It's going to be like losing an old friend so they are probably going to be going through the grieving process: The stages of the grieving process in order are: Denial, anger, bargaining, depression and acceptance.

Most of those who have already seen the writing on the wall are still stuck in denial, but I've noticed that some have moved on to anger. There need to punish someone, anyone for the loss. Thus the threats; we have been against their savior all along. And we're handy.

I must confess I have a strong desire to rub their noses in their loss. Some of Sanders supporters have tried to make life on DU as difficult as possible for us, and to a large extent they succeed. There is natural desire to get even. But if we think with our heads instead of our emotions, we will give them space they need to recover from their loss.

Some were never Democrats, or they drifted off many years ago. They were here strictly here to support Sanders. They hate Hillary Clinton; they will never vote for her; they will be gone from DU soon. For others the switch will be easy, like was for me to switch without a beat from supporting Clinton to full out supporting Obama in 2008, but I am not a real emotional guy. However, for many other good Democrats who are supporting Bernie it will be hard because they pored so much of themselves into Sanders' campaign.

With those dealing with the loss of hope, and perhaps trying make the transition to supporting Hillary, we need to be supportive and give them space, not a hard time.

February 21, 2016

Can Bernie Still duplicate Obama’s Path to Victory in 2008? No!!!!

Some have compared Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign for the Democratic Presidential nomination to that of Senator Barack Obama in 2008. Even with Sanders’ close loss in Nevada, they point to the similarities to Obama’s campaign against Hillary Clinton at this stage of the race. At this point in 2008 Obama had been victorious in Iowa and New Hampshire and had loss in Nevada, all by close votes. Despite Bernie’s loss in Nevada, pro Sanders observers point to a near dead heat in Iowa and Bernie’s landslide victory in New Hampshire. They encourage their compatriots, belling them that all is not lost, that Bernie can still follow Obama’s path to victory. Let’s examine what Sanders has to do going forward in the immediate future in order to follow Obama’s path to the nomination.

The South Carolina primary is next. 2008: Barack Obama won South Carolina with approximately 55% of the vote, defeating both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. He won 25 of the South Carolina’s pledged delegates to Clinton’s 12. 2016: According to the current polls – an average of 8 taken in the last 10 days – Hillary is the favorite by over Sanders by 24.1%. Nate Silver gives her a 99% chance of winning.

Then 4 days later Bernie will need to do extremely well in the “SEC primaries” to have a chance of follow Barack Obama’ path to victory in the nomination process in 2008. What follows is an in-depth look at the results of the nomination battle between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton in 2008 in the states which will be holding their primaries March 1, 2016. (The states listed in order with those with the greatest number of delegates listed first down to those with the least number of delegates.)

Texas: 237 delegates. 2008: The Texas primary and caucuses in 2008 were close with Obama securing 99 of Texas’ pledged delegates to Clinton’s 94. 2016: The last recent poll complete 2/16 has Hillary leading Bernie by 23%. Nate Silvers’ prediction on his FiveThirtyEight.com gives Clinton’s a 98% chance of wining the Lone Star State.

Massachusetts: 121 delegates. 2008: Massachusetts was one of the few primaries upcoming which Clinton won in 2008. She took 56.01% of the vote and 55 of the state’s pledged delegates to Obama’s 40.64% and 38 delegates. 2016: This is one of the states where Sanders is leading in the most recent poll by 7%. At this writing, Nate Silvers has not yet put out a prediction for the Democratic primary in Massachusetts.

For the rest of the article and the analysis of the other upcoming primaries: Can Bernie Still duplicate Obama’s Path to Victory in 2008?

February 21, 2016

Can Bernie Sanders still follow Barack Obama's path to victory

Some have compared Senator Bernie Sanders’ campaign for the Democratic Presidential nomination to that of Senator Barack Obama in 2008. Even with Sanders’ close loss in Nevada, they point to the similarities to Obama’s campaign against Hillary Clinton at this point of the race. In 2008 Obama had been victorious in Iowa and New Hampshire and had loss in Nevada, all by close votes. Pro Sanders observers point to a near dead heat in Iowa and Bernie’s landslide victory in New Hampshire. They urge their compatriots that all is not loss, that Bernie can still follow Obama’s path to victory. Let’s examine what Bernie has to going forward in the immediate future to follow Obama’s path.

The South Carolina primary is next. In 2008, Barack Obama won South Carolina with approximately 55% of the vote, defeating both Hillary Clinton and John Edwards. He won 25 of the South Carolina’s pledged delegates to Clinton’s 12.

Then 4 days later Bernie will need to do well in the "SEC primaries: Here is a look at a few examples of what President Obama did in some biggest of these primaries in 2008:

Obama took 66.39% of the vote in Georgia capturing 60 of the state's 87 delegates.

The Texas primary and caucuses in 2008 were close; Obama secured 99 pledged delegates to Clinton's 94.

In Minnesota Obama took 66.39% of the vote to Clinton's 32.23% taking 48 pledged delegates to her 24.

Obama earned 54 delegates in Virginia compared to the 29 delegates won by Clinton by winning 66.33% of the popular vote to Clinton’s 35.46%

Michigan is not a good example because Obama withdrew from the primary along with other Democrat delegates because Michigan broke DNC rules in setting the date for the primary. Clinton did not withdraw and ended up getting 56% of the voters.

So the question becomes, can Bernie Sanders duplicate or at least come to duplicating Barack Obama in biggest of the upcoming primaries and then in the following primaries and caucuses? You might want to check the latest polls for the states above before coming to any conclusions.

February 20, 2016

Some on the GD-P board seem to be losing hope

But Bernie just said that he believes that he has "an excellent chance to win many of those (Super Tuesday) contests".

February 19, 2016

I’m Not Feeling the Bern

I cannot visualize Bernie Sanders as President of the United States, and I truly believe that a majority of American voters will feel as I do come election day. Bernie may have some good ideas and his goals have merit, but ideas and goals are not enough in and of themselves.

Many of those supporting Sanders are far to the left of the vast majority of those who will be casting votes next November. Whether we like it or not, the relatively small group of voters who will decide this election are in the political center or even slightly to the right of center and they are very suspicious of politicians they view as being too far to the right or to far to the left in their political views. These are not people given to extremes of any sort. Even the idea of a self identified socialist running for President will be a cause for concern for more than a few of them.

(snip)

The primary goal of any political party entering a national election is winning. All else has to take a back seat to that goal because the platforms and ideology of the party not in power will never see the light of day. The Republicans seem destined to nominate either a reality show star who has managed to insult every political group necessary to win the general election or a disruptive politician who is far too conservative to suit those who will decide which candidate will occupy the White House. The best hope of Trump or Cruz is for the Democrats to nominate someone who will disturb that critical faction of the American electorate as much as the most probable Republican candidates.

In addition, I fear for the future of the Democratic Party if Bernie Sanders were to win the nomination and the general election. As it has often been pointed out, the Republicans are certain to maintain their domination of the House and are likely to be able to prevent votes on any legislation in the Senate regardless of which party wins control of that body. (To over ride a threat of a filibuster in the Senate, 60 Senators are necessary bring a bill forward for a vote.) If Republican Congressmen currently view President Obama as the enemy, they would view Bernie, the socialist, as the Satan incarnate and make damn sure he accomplishes absolutely nothing.

Sanders is a crusty old politician not known for his stellar relations with his colleagues and he is certainly not one to compromise – his most ardent supporters view any compromise as a repudiation of their values. .......

Rest of article here: I’m Not Feeling the Bern