BornADemocrat
BornADemocrat's JournalBefore anybody freaks out about the new Remington (R-leaning) state polls put up on 538
All but one have the same lead or better than the previous version of this poll out Oct 30.
The one that is worse by 1 point is in Virginia, not an iffy state.
In addition, the polling dates are a few days old: Nov 1-2.
Thus these actually improved Hillary's odds by 0.8% and turned Nevada slightly blue on 538 (50.1%).
Franken: FBI's Comey should face Senate hearings
http://pmd.cdn.turner.com/cnn/big//politics/2016/11/06/sotu-franken-fbi.cnn_cnn_iphone_cell.mp4Can't get video to embed.
He talks about the "rogue element" in the FBI and won't answer whether Comey should be allowed to finish the remaining 7 years of his term. He's implied that Comey should be able to control said rogue elements in the FBI (or be removed?)
How To Survive The Onslaught Of Final Polls
Natalie Jackson Senior Polling Editor, The Huffington Post
The end of the election cycle always coincides with a massive batch of poll releases. Most pollsters want to get their final measures out and capitalize on peak interest in polling numbers before Election Day.
That means we’ll be swimming in data on Monday.
...
Look at the polling aggregates.
Perhaps the most important key to keeping your sanity with all the polls coming in is to not follow every single poll and every little bounce in the numbers. Polling aggregates are your friend.
I don’t say that to minimize pollsters’ hard work ― many of them do high-quality surveys and deserve credit for that. But when there’s an overwhelming amount of polling data coming at you, the best way to deal with it is to let someone else deal with it. If you’re trying to keep up with multiple 50-state polls on top of the dozens of other polls released each day, you’re going to have a bad time.
So pick your aggregator. HuffPost Pollster carefully curates the polls we put into our aggregate, making sure they release all the information we need to establish that they’re making a credible attempt to measure voters’ opinions. And, as with the USC/LA Times poll, we’ll also make sure the way polls ask the questions are comparable.
Our aggregate calculation works to minimize the effects of outlier polls and reflect the trend of the polling. The model tries to find the most likely true value of opinion within a bunch of polls that say different things.
...
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/final-election-polls-meaning_us_581fabb9e4b0e80b02cac14c
Kellyanne Conway and AJ Delgado attempting to comprehend why Democrats are happy over FBI news
***(CVOTER/UPI (moonies)) national poll goes from Hillary +1.25% lead to Hillary +3.34% lead***
https://www.documentcloud.org/documents/3214801-US5th-Nov-Report.html
Yet her odds drop?
Note that Nate's adjusted lead went from +3 to +5, the sample size was larger and her average lead is just under 3%, thus this poll HAD to increase her odds, no? The WAPO poll did earlier. It's not logical that this dropped her odds. Can a statistician here please explain this to me?
"Bill Cl.. oh, Don is a pedophile/molester? Someone call Rudy we need his people in the FBI"
( I'm not saying that I haven't noticed people accusing Bill Clinton any longer or saying that Hillary covered up for his accusers)
The worst part IMO is how they are attacking/threatening DJTs accusers - it's some of the most vile hypocrisy I've ever seen.
For what it's worth
For the past week, Hillary has been ahead or tied in the most recent release of every poll in Florida (Huffpo doesn't use Pulse).
Remember, because of the time change, we have one extra hour of this fucking election.
Andy Borowitz
Hillary Clinton Is Leading In A Greater Portion Of Polls Than Obama Was In The Last Two Elections
(she means national polls)
Hillary Clinton has consistently led in a greater portion of presidential polls in the two months heading into Election Day than President Barack Obama did in both 2008 and 2012.
The Democratic nominee is ahead of GOP nominee Donald Trump in 93 percent of polls conducted in the two months before Election Day. Trump leads in just 3 percent of the polls. Another 3 percent of polls show a tied race.
The range by which Clinton leads relative to Trump also stands in stark contrast to the 2008 and 2012 elections.
The former secretary of state leads by 1 to 13 points in the polls she is ahead in. Trump’s lead, among the 3 percent of polls he’s ahead in, ranges from 1 to 2 points.
Even when the data range is narrowed to the week heading into Election Day, Clinton still has a strong advantage. Polls get more predictive of the outcome the closer they are to Election Day.
... more and link
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/hillary-clinton-polls_us_581e2897e4b0e80b02ca6962
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Now poll gurus, don't shoot the messenger, I know it's not a national election, it's still interesting.
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Member since: Sun Apr 26, 2015, 11:58 PMNumber of posts: 8,168
