JoanofArgh
JoanofArgh's JournalGeorgia's recount is a risk limiting audit
https://twitter.com/KimZetter/status/1326549391075799041?s=20NOTe: This is a risk-limiting audit. It’s NOT a recount being done to appease Trump. It was always planned that Georgia would do a risk-limiting audit of one statewide race this election. It makes sense that the chosen race is the presidential one.
https://twitter.com/KimZetter/status/1326551144911368195?s=20
Journalists, if you’re going to write about this, please understand the difference between a recount and an audit. A risk-limiting audit does not recount all the ballots. Officials manually examine only a PERCENTAGE of randomly chosen paper ballots in such an audit.
n this particular case, GA will manually audit ALL of the ballots in the presidential race because of the type of risk-limiting audit they’ve chosen to do and because they chose the presidential race to audit. In risk-limiting audits, the percentage of ballots examined...
is based on margin of victory in race. The smaller the margin, the more ballots you audit. Because margin in presidential race in Georgia is so narrow, state would have to randomly select more than a million ballots to audit. It’s cheaper/more efficient to just audit all of them.
Another reason why what they're doing in GA is an audit and not a recount - because Georgia's election law says that a recount is done by having a scanner read a QR code printed on each ballot. It does not involve a manual count unless the scanners are shown to be untrustworthy.
It's hard to convey this in brief tweets, but what I'm trying to say is that GA was set to announce this morning which race it would use in its risk-limiting audit. The initial plan, as I understand it, was to do a down-ballot race and not the presidential race. That changed.
It made sense for them to choose the presidential race instead of a down-ballot race, since that is the most controversial one. But because the margin in the presidential race is so narrow, they would have had to pull more than a million random ballots for the audit.
In an RLA, a computer randomly picks which ballots to audit. One ballot from a batch at this precinct, two ballots from a batch at that precinct. It's extremely time-consuming because workers in every county have to locate these ballots and prepare them to be examined.
It requires strong chain-of-custody to track those ballots and pull the correct ones. In a normal RLA, you might pull several hundred ballots to audit, possibly a couple thousand. But in this presidential race, because of the number of ballots cast and the close margin
it would require staff to pull more than a million ballots and then carefully return each ballot to its proper batch. That's why the state has chosen to just manually audit all of the ballots - you just pull all of them and it's less taxing and time-consuming for staff.
The Georgia SoS has called this an audit, a recount and a canvas. Georgia law states a recount is done by optical scanners, not by manually examining ballots. The machine in fact scans a QR code on the ballots to recount them.
Georgia law allows for manual recount only if machines are shown to be untrustworthy during tests. So calling this a recount would be contrary to what Georgia law says a recount is. In essence this will indeed now be a manual recount of the ballots...
but it's more of a hybrid between an audit and a recount. In Georgia, an audit involves a manual review of ballots, a recount does not, except under certain circumstances. So in manually counting all of the ballots in this case, Georgia is doing a combination audit/recount.
What is great about what GA is doing, is that this will finally put a spotlight on need for mandatory post-election audits that involve manually examining paper ballots. This would add important missing integrity check for elections, as I point out here
https://www.politico.com/states/florida/story/2020/11/02/one-big-flaw-in-how-americans-run-elections-1333232
Bottom line is GA is doing a quasi-audit, but not risk-a limiting audit because of how GA will conduct it (no randomly chosen ballots). It's also not a strict recount because of what GA law calls a recount - a machine reading QR codes.
Whatever. They chose the Presidential race because it'll please Trump.
Trump's longstanding history of calling elections rigged
On election night in 2012, when President Barack Obama was reelected, Trump said that the election was a "total sham" and a "travesty," while also making the claim that the United States is "not a democracy" after Obama secured his victory. Trump even wrote on Twitter, "We can't let this happen. We should march on Washington and stop this travesty. Our nation is totally divided!"
When he ran to become the Republican Party nominee in 2016, he attempted to cast doubt on the election process. Trump said he did not lose the Iowa caucuses in 2016 to then candidate Sen. Ted Cruz, because he "stole it."
"Ted Cruz didn't win Iowa, he stole it. That is why all of the polls were so wrong and why he got far more votes than anticipated. Bad!" Trump wrote on Twitter at the time. He also wrote, "Based on the fraud committed by Senator Ted Cruz during the Iowa Caucus, either a new election should take place or Cruz results nullified."
In October 2016, just weeks before the general election, Trump wanted to cast doubt on the results by tweeting, "The election is absolutely being rigged by the dishonest and distorted media pushing Crooked Hillary - but also at many polling places - SAD," without providing any evidence for the claim. Even after the election ended and it was clear that Clinton had lost and conceded victory to Trump, the president didn't stop lamenting over the election he had won. He quickly made the claim that he also won the popular vote over Clinton, which is something that did not happen. "In addition to winning the Electoral College in a landslide, I won the popular vote if you deduct the millions of people who voted illegally," said Trump.
https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/trump-longstanding-history-calling-elections-rigged-doesnt-results/story?id=74126926
Biden World Fears Trump Will Bring 'Weird Shit' to Their Inauguration
President-elect Joe Biden’s team is confronting a logistical headache as it prepares for his formal inauguration on January 20, 2021: How can you hold a mass-attended event in the midst of a pandemic while also preventing it from becoming a Trumpist counterprotest?
At issue is a potentially combustible mix of complications owing to the likelihood that both COVID-19 and President Donald Trump’s hurt feelings will persist into the time when Biden is scheduled to be sworn into office.
Officials who have been involved in talks around inauguration planning said public safety would be top of mind. Over the course of the campaign, Biden consistently downscaled events or went entirely virtual to ensure no risk of COVID spread on his behalf. The expectation is that mindset won’t change for his inauguration.
But the questions being confronted by inauguration planners are now twofold. How do you actually keep attendees away? And if wannabe revelers decide not to show up, will you be left with a mass gathering of Trump supporters in their place? “What do you do if our people don’t show up and his do?” asked one official involved in inaugural preparations. “They probably will and the last thing you want is a MAGA rally on the Mall when Joe Biden is sworn in as president…. I think [Trump] would want to make it as much of a shitshow as possible.”
https://www.thedailybeast.com/biden-world-fears-trump-will-bring-weird-shit-to-their-inauguration?ref=home
"This is unsustainable"- senior WH official
https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1326519553208295426?s=20Frustration is building within the White House at President Trump’s refusal to concede defeat. A senior White House officials tells
@PeterAlexander
, “This is unsustainable,” referring to Trump’s unwillingness to accept the election’s result.
https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1326519884860239872?s=20
This official says the president will keep amplifying his unsubstantiated claims of fraud and says they “do not expect him to concede.” More likely, this top aide says, “He’ll say something like, ‘We can’t trust the results, but I’m not contesting them.’” - via
@PeterAlexander
https://twitter.com/GeoffRBennett/status/1326520012438446087?s=20
Reacting to the Biden senior counsel Bob Bauer’s comments that Trump’s longshot lawsuits are “theatrics,” this officials admitted, “It’s not wrong for the Biden team to call it theater.”
This official says many members of the White House staff are actively looking for new work.
A lot of speculation that the delaying transition and firings are part of a cover up
https://twitter.com/LincolnsBible/status/1326336704639193089?s=20I'm fully convinced now that the election lawsuits and Emily Murphy GSA block are an effort to delay transition so trump has time to fire everyone and hide his crimes before Biden gets read in. Donald will fail at this, too. #CoverUp
The party that Newt built has no leadership
https://twitter.com/MollyMcKew/status/1326144930209820672?s=20The party that Newt built has no leadership. It is captive to the whims of whichever mob is loudest — an energy cultivated and stoked by right wing media and ideologue billionaires. No one has been in charge for years.
Thread:
This is why they almost all play along with this madness.
Perhaps the defining moment of the end of the Republican caucus was when Boehner was like “screw this, I’m outta here, y’all have fun with these Freedom caucus yay-hoos, I’m gonna go swill wine and invest in cannabis” and no one — literally no one — wanted his job. No one.
It’s like being the bus driver of a school bus with no steering wheel or brakes: you’re responsible for the safety of the people in the bus, but you’re not in control of it at all, you can just beg them to sit down and tell them to stop throwing boogers at you & each other
Oh — and you aren’t actually going to a school where someone might learn something from actual books, but to some traveling carnival of oddities, where they look at the two-headed calves and other mutations and think SEE I KNEW ALL ALONG THIS TOTALLY IMPROBABLE THING IS REAL HA
And no one knows what is true, or who believed this nutso quackery first, or why they have become obsessed, barking out catchphrases and talking points until 50-year-old men in Oklahoma are reflexively telling you that the two-headed calf is 100% proof that democrats are monsters
They don’t know who started the game of telephone, or what the original message was.
They just think that Rush deserves his medal because they believe the power to unleash anger & fear is the most important manifestation of their chaos god view of “democracy” & how to keep power
How to keep power while everything burns
Oh well, they say. I’m fine. 401k is great. We all have to look out for #1. Let’s watch the chaos god drumline march thru the nation from this balcony here. Let’s post a selfie at the parade so the unruly mob thinks we don’t disdain them
This is where this madness was heading all along.
They’re all still playing along, not understanding or caring about what the stakes are, because they will be fine no matter what, and who cares about the rest of us.
https://twitter.com/MollyMcKew/status/1326156146235813888?s=20
https://twitter.com/AlisynCamerota/status/1326152798149505025?s=20
Moments ago on
@NewDay
... Sen.
@ChrisCoons
reveals what some of his Republican colleagues have said to him in private -- "please convey my well wishes to the President-Elect, but I can't say that publicly yet."
Trump filed a new federal lawsuit
https://twitter.com/ToddRuger/status/1325928131258101761?s=20Trump campaign says it has filed a federal lawsuit that asks to stop Pennsylvania from certifying the results of the general election. Not seeing it in PACER yet tho. https://cdn.donaldjtrump.com/public-files/press_assets/2020-11-09-complaint-as-filed.pdf
https://twitter.com/ToddRuger/status/1325929839581409280?s=20
It's all a big fundraising scam
https://twitter.com/AlexDiLalla/status/1325921889924108288?s=20It's all a big fundraising scam!!!
They're gonna try and retire general election campaign debt and build their war chests by rallying behind a delusional outgoing president when they know Biden will be President on 01/20/21.
Our campaign finance system allows/incentivizes this!
Fireworks in London, church bells in Paris as Biden win celebrated abroad
In countries across the globe, people reported fireworks, cheering and the sound of church bells ringing after President-elect Joe Biden was named the winner of the 2020 presidential election.
Locals in the United Kingdom, where many had leftover fireworks from Guy Fawkes Night this week, reported fireworks going off in London. There were videos of church bells ringing in Paris and fireworks in Edinburgh, Scotland, and reports of celebrations in Germany.
https://twitter.com/Eternal_Stress/status/1325136976413138944?s=20
https://twitter.com/LHissrich/status/1325137834605469696?s=20
https://twitter.com/NikkiBaughan/status/1325124420642492417?s=20
https://twitter.com/ALutz7/status/1325117440037105672?s=20
https://twitter.com/avtrask/status/1325118984442818565?s=20
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/524962-fireworks-in-london-church-bells-in-paris-as-biden-win-celebrated-abroad
Looking forward to reading profiles of Biden voters in large urban areas
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1325209093020155904?s=20Looking forward to reading profiles of Biden voters in large urban areas and hearing discussions for the next four years about how Republicans can change their messaging to reach those Biden voters after performing so poorly with them in this election.
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Current location: Charlotte, NC
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